A dynamic shortwave trough moving into the central Plains led to the development of a deepening closed low over Nebraska and Kansas during the late evening of March 18, 2025, continuing into the early morning hours of March 19. This amplifying system enhanced a strong low-level jet across the central and southern Plains, driving significant moisture transport into eastern Nebraska and western…
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
A dynamic shortwave trough moving into the central Plains led to the development of a deepening closed low over Nebraska and Kansas during the late evening of March 18, 2025, continuing into the early morning hours of March 19. This amplifying system enhanced a strong low-level jet across the central and southern Plains, driving significant moisture transport into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A plume of 500 700 J/kg of MUCAPE supported the initiation of showers and thunderstorms, some of which produced severe hail.
As the morning progressed, rain transitioned to snow, aided by an intensifying TROWAL and deformation axis that produced heavy snowfall through the morning hours. Snowfall rates exceeded 1 inch per hour in some locations. Snow tapered off by evening, with the highest accumulations ranging from 5 to 12 inches falling in a swath from York to Fremont, Nebraska, and into southwest Iowa.
Another major impact of this system was strong winds, with widespread gusts of 50 to over 70 mph across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The combination of heavy snow and high winds resulted in blizzard conditions, leading to significant blowing and drifting snow. Visibility was severely reduced, prompting multiple highway and interstate closures throughout the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 19, 2:25 AM CST, 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
325 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous blizzard conditions today for many. Travel is
discouraged.
- Rain changing to heavy snow from northwest to southeast this
morning. Maximum snowfall amounts of 6-12" expected along an
axis from Onawa, IA to Tekamah to Fremont to David City.
- Peak wind gusts of 60-70 mph from the north today. Along with
the blizzard conditions, the strong winds could damage trees
and powerlines with scattered power outages possible.
- Temperatures after the snow will remain mild with highs in the
40s and lower 50s on Thursday and 50s and 60s Friday into
early next week, so expect any snow to melt quickly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Today and Tonight:
As of 3 AM, a w-e-oriented precipitation band has evolved along
a central axis from Albion to West Point to Harlan, IA, forced
by strong frontogenesis in the 850-700-mb layer. Scattered
thunderstorms exist along the southern flank of the broader
precipitation shield from Wahoo and Omaha toward Harlan, IA,
rooted within a plume of 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE. The strongest
storms will remain capable of hail up to quarter size through
about daybreak. Elsewhere, latent cooling effects have allowed
rain to change over to snow at Albion and Columbus with
thundersnow being reported at Fremont.
Latest CAM output consistently shows the evolution of an
impressive, sw-ne-oriented deformation precipitation band
across the area this morning with rain transitioning to sleet
and then over to heavy snow before ending from west to east this
afternoon into evening. The 00z HREF continues to depict
greater than 70% probabilities of 1+"/hr snow rates lasting for
several hours at many locations. Brief periods of 2"/hr rates
appear possible. The high snow rates are a function of existing
upright and slantwise instability with periods of thundersnow
and/or thundersleet possible this morning.
The models appear to have stabilized on where the axis of heaviest
snow will occur, which is quite similar to the forecast on
Tuesday afternoon. This forecast update will include slightly
higher QPF, mainly from Wahoo and Lincoln, west through Seward
and David City, which translates to higher expected snow totals
in those areas. In general, the forecast will indicate potential
amounts of 6-12" along an axis from Onawa, IA through Tekamah
to Fremont to David City with decreasing totals expected with
northwest and southeast extent from that axis.
The wind forecast will remain similar to the previous,
highlighting the potential for 60-70 mph gusts today. As we have
been messaging, this combination of heavy snow and extremely
strong winds will lead to dangerous blizzard conditions across a
good portion of our area, and any travel is discouraged. In
addition to the anticipated zero visibilities, considerable
drifting is expected, along with the potential for tree and
powerline damage, which could lead to scattered power outages.
Similar to the precipitation, the winds are expected to diminish
from west-to-east late this afternoon into tonight.
Thursday and Friday:
The midlevel flow pattern transitions to quasi-zonal on Thursday
in advance of a shortwave trough, which is forecast to move
through the northern and central Plains on Friday. In the low
levels, surface winds will switch to southwest on Thursday with
a fairly robust warm-advection pattern developing into Thursday
night. A surface front is projected to move through the area on
Friday, in tandem with the shortwave trough.
Existing snow cover will dampen the effects of the warm
advection on Thursday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s
forecast in areas with the deepest snowpack. However, peripheral
locations will see a nice warm up with highs in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Friday will be warmer than Thursday with 40s expected
over the existing snow cover, and 50s elsewhere. Winds will
strengthen behind the front with west-northwesterly gusts of
30-40 mph possible during the afternoon in northeast NE. The
forecast will continue to advertise a 20-30% chance of mainly
light rain, mainly over our northern and eastern counties.
This Weekend:
The 00z global models remain in fairly good agreement in
depicting midlevel trough amplification over the north-central
U.S. during this time period. The upper-air system will be
attended by another front that is forecast to move through the
area Saturday night into Sunday morning. The models indicate the
highest QPF near the primary surface low over the northern
Plains into upper MS Valley, and ahead of a secondary frontal
wave over the Ozarks, with comparably less precipitation in our
area. This forecast update will indicate peak PoPs of 30-40%
Saturday night, decreasing to 20-30% on Sunday. Above-normal
temperatures are expected with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Early Next Week:
A broad, longer-wavelength trough is forecast to evolve east of
the Rockies with the northern and central Plains residing in
northwesterly flow aloft. The surface pattern will favor the
continuation of above-normal temperatures with highs in the 50s
and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025
VFR Conditions still at TAF issuance, but with northerly winds
at 17 to 34 knots. Showers will develop through the night, becoming
snow at KOFK by 09z, but with snow ending there by 16z. A mix
of thunder, sleet, rain, and snow could occur at KLNK/KOMA by
10-14z, becoming all snow by 13-14z. During the peak of the
snow, have dropped visibility down to 1/4 mile at both KLNK/KOMA
15-20z time frame, with visibility improving back to VFR by
00-01z. While it will be hard to measure snowfall, storm totals
at KOFK up to 4", and around 6" at KLNK/KOMA. Regarding peak
winds speeds, have 55 knots at all three TAF locations, but it
could even be higher.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Blizzard Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-033-
034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088-089.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ034-045-
052-053-067-068-090>093.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT
this evening for NEZ090>093.
Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...Blizzard Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
056-069.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT
this evening for IAZ079-080-090-091.
&&
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...DeWaldHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-191200- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday There is a small chance (5-10%) for a strong to severe storm to develop near and north of Interstate 80 after midnight. Hail up to quarter size would be the primary hazard. Periods of heavy snow and very strong winds gusting 50 to 70 mph are expected over parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight into Wednesday. This will lead to blizzard conditions in the areas that experience the heaviest, most persistent snow. Travel in these areas will become dangerous to impossible. The strong winds could also damage trees and power lines with scattered power outages possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday Some blowing snow could persist early Wednesday evening before winds taper off after sunset. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be required, but snowfall and severe weather reports are appreciated.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 NW Greenwood 41.02N 96.52W
03/19/2025 M59 MPH Lancaster NE Public
Measured by public weather station.
&&
DMPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1247 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1210 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 WNW Bennet 40.70N 96.57W
03/19/2025 M58 MPH Lancaster NE Public
Measured by public weather station.
&&
DMPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
140 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1259 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 E Elkhorn 41.28N 96.19W
03/19/2025 E51 MPH Douglas NE Public
Measured by public weather station.
&&
DMPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
141 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0114 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Millard 41.21N 96.21W
03/19/2025 M52 MPH Douglas NE Public
Measured by public weather station.
&&
DMPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
330 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0307 AM Hail 3 SW Fort Calhoun 41.42N 96.06W
03/19/2025 E1.00 Inch Washington NE Public
Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 high wind, 3 blizzard, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Interstate 29 closed from Missouri Valley to South Dakota border due to blizzard conditions and powerlines across the road at mile marker 110. Generally 6 to 9 of snow with wind gusts estimated at 50 to 70 mph.
Highway 44 closed across much of Shelby and Harrison counties due to blizzard conditions. Generally 3 to 7 of snow with wind gusts measured up to 73 mph.
Highway 37 is closed due to blizzard conditions. Generally 3 to 7 of snow with wind gusts measured up to 51 mph and visibility of 1/2 mile.
Snowfall generally in the 1-5 range with wind gusts measured up to 59 mph, bringing visibility down to 1/4 mile at times.
No observations within the county. Estimated wind gusts of 50-70 mph with a 73 mph measured wind gust LSR just south of the Monona/Harrison county line.
Mesonet station RLSI4 measured gust of 73 mph.
Mesonet station RAVI4 measured gust of 59 mph.
Personal weather station measured gust of 60 mph and 58 mph.
Personal weather station measured gust of 70 mph. KICL ASOS measured sustained speeds of over 40 mph for 1 hour at 1955Z.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1244936, 1244937, 1244938, 1244939, 1245118, 1245119, 1245120, 1245121, 1245122.