On the afternoon of July 11, 2025, a shortwave trough pushing into the central Plains helped to steer a surface low into southwest Iowa. This atmospheric setup, combined with moderate instability and deep-layer shear, led to the formation of strong thunderstorms near the surface low.
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The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
On the afternoon of July 11, 2025, a shortwave trough pushing into the central Plains helped to steer a surface low into southwest Iowa. This atmospheric setup, combined with moderate instability and deep-layer shear, led to the formation of strong thunderstorms near the surface low. One of these storms produced a brief and weak tornado. Emergency management reported the tornado in Page County, Iowa, at 2:46 PM CST. The time of the tornado was confirmed through video evidence and radar data. The tornado did not cause any damage, which resulted in it being rated EFU.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 1:41 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 241 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 30-60% chance of additional storms this evening and overnight, and a 5% chance of severe storms. The main threats would be damaging winds and hail. - Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up Sunday through Tuesday. - Active weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Today and Tonight... A few weak showers and thunderstorms festered across the eastern fringes of our forecast area through the morning hours. Temperatures rising into the 70s and 80s combined with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s led to a boost of instability this afternoon, as MUCAPE estimates approached 2000 J/kg. A surface low tracked through southeast Nebraska and into southwest Iowa by early afternoon. A few storms have begun to develop east of the Missouri River. Spotty showers and storms will continue to pop-up in the vicinity of this surface low through the remainder of the afternoon, before gradually shifting off to our east over central Iowa. Thankfully, the better chance for severe storm development looks to remain just to our east and south this afternoon. CAMs suggest another band of storms developing in the vicinity of a cold front, draped from southwest to northeast, over northeast Nebraska this evening. Overall CAM trends continue to indicate this line will struggle, gradually dissipating as it moves southeast this evening. Round 3 will come in the form of an MCV-driven complex that develops near the Nebraska panhandle and surges southeast overnight. While these too are expected to gradually weaken as they move southeast with the lack of daytime heating, an isolated strong to severe updraft can't be completely ruled out. Overall, all three rounds of storms will likely be limited by the marginal 20-30kts of shear across the region, making it hard for updrafts to become well organized. While the strongest updrafts may be capable of briefly producing some strong winds or marginally severe hail, the greatest threat looks to be the potential for a quick Tornado to spin up near the surface low in southwest Iowa, with this initial round of storms. However, that potential is quickly shifting eastward with the departing low. Saturday through Tuesday... Drier weather returns this weekend as mid-level heights rise. Saturday will actually be fairly nice, with highs in the low 80s and dewpoints only in the low 60s, as opposed to the 70s that we've been smothered with recently. A few showers or weak storms may graze the area as a shortwave passes to our south Saturday night/Sunday morning. Otherwise dry weather is expected to prevail across the majority of the forecast area through Sunday. Highs on Sunday will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with dew points into the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures remain warm into next week, with mostly dry conditions through Tuesday. Highs will reach the 90s on Monday and 80s Tuesday. Tuesday Night and Beyond... Widespread rain chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday, as a cold front drops in from our north and a shortwave moves in from the southwest. Machine learning probs continue to highlight the Central Plains for severe chances Tuesday and Wednesday, likely give the robust instability that will be in place. However, severe storm may be limited by the lack of strong deep layer shear, which is still forecast to remain off to our north. Behind the frontal passage, temperatures will cool into the 70s and 80s, making for a comfortable end to the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 MVFR to IFR stratus deck is expected to gradually dissipate over the next few hours. Winds will remain out north at 5 to 10 kts, with occasional gusts up to 15 kts. Isolated thunderstorms may pop up near KOMA this afternoon, between 18-22Z, but should quickly move east of the TAF site. Another round of storms is possible near the KOFK area between 01-04Z this evening. A third and final round of showers and storms may effect all three TAF sites between 09Z-12Z Saturday morning. Given the spotty nature of the storms and low confidence in whether or not they will actually impact the TAF sites, opted to leave out a mention of -TSRA for the time being. Any lingering showers will diminish Saturday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...KG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-120945- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a 20-60% chance of storms this evening and overnight, with a 5% chance of severe storms. The primary threats would be damaging winds and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Storm chances return Tuesday through Thursday. Areas that receive repeated rounds of rainfall could see some flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is unlikely today, but reports of severe weather are appreciated.
The Omaha radar (KOAX), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:46 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported a brief, weak tornado in Page County, Iowa, at 3:46 PM. The time of the tornado was confirmed through video evidence and radar data. The tornado did not cause any damage, which resulted in an EFU rating.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280940.