A 500mb shortwave trough moved across the Upper Midwest with height falls across the Quad State during the afternoon and evening of the 16th. The exit region of a strong (125kt) upper level jet was positioned across the area as well.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A 500mb shortwave trough moved across the Upper Midwest with height falls across the Quad State during the afternoon and evening of the 16th. The exit region of a strong (125kt) upper level jet was positioned across the area as well. Low-level winds strengthened during the afternoon to 50kts at 850mb. Following the early AM convection, ample sunshine allowed for a very unstable airmass to develop with CAPE of 3000-4000J/kg with deep layer shear of 65-70kts. Late afternoon, STP peaked at 9 near the Wabash/Ohio River confluence with effective SRH of 300-400m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates peaked at 8-8.5C/km for much of the Quad State (though lower for Southwest Indiana) with significant hail parameter of 3-5 mid-afternoon and DCAPE peaking at 1200-1500J/kg. Initial storm formation was discrete with very large hail and tornadoes, with storms becoming more linear later in the evening.
Despite the very strong setup, Southwest Indiana was fortunate to find a gap between the mid-afternoon storms that went through St. Louis and tracked east-northeastward, and the evening storms that crossed just to the south, resulting in a lone sub-severe hail report for Southwest Indiana.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 5:26 PM CST, 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 626 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A significant dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected this afternoon into this evening. All severe hazards are in play...including strong/intense, and potentially long tracked tornadoes, widespread and potentially significant damaging wind, and large and damaging hail. The inherent risk of flooding from very heavy rain will be more localized. - More stormy weather returns early next week with severe weather potential again Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 As the atmosphere recovers from early day thunderstorms, all indications are that by mid afternoon, we will again be primed and ready for severe storms to develop. Our thermodynamics remain charged, with 3500-4500 J/KG2 expected ahead of the approaching system. It brings with it the right entrance region of an upper level jet, while the low levels start cranking too...deep layer shear remains largely 50-60 KTS thru the event. The incoming CAM models all paint some discrete development as early as 19 or 20Z, with more elements becoming linear with time thereafter. There is some play between about half of the modeling suggesting an area of low pressure developing with a warm and cold sector on the mesoscale or smaller, while the other half are more discrete with perhaps two line segments moving across the area. STP still goes up to about 7 and with such high CAPE and SRH that is 250-350 m2/s2 on average, we're concerned at the high end potential for significant tornadoes/damaging wind, not to mention the large hail threat. Residual boundaries laid out already or in the pm convective atmosphere may further complicate these layouts, but it appears that regardless of that, or it even muting that somewhat, we'll have an active and very dangerous afternoon- evening to come. Ultimately we may see the convection line out with intense wind gusts in excess of 70 mph as it sweeps across the area by late evening. In addition to the aforementioned hazards, we'll also see an inherent risk of flooding from very heavy rain, but it should be more localized. We get a short-lived pause thereafter, CWA-glancing activity not withstanding, that carries us thru the first half of the weekend, before the pattern turns more active the back half of the weekend and leading into next week. That's when our next best chance of strong storms comes in by/for Day5 (Tuesday), but many elements will have to come together between now and then for us to have higher confidence precision in the 15% blanket SPC has overtop most of the PAH FA for now. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Several large supercell storms will continue quickly east this evening, and may eventually grow into a line over west Kentucky later this evening. KMVN should already be out of the woods, and KCGI will be close at 00Z. It should be done at KPAH and KOWB by 03Z. Wind gusts over 50kts, large hail, and tornadoes are all potential hazards. Ahead of the storms south winds will gust 20-25kts. Winds will eventually settle down under 10kts overnight as they shift to the west southwest. West winds will gust 15-25kt for much of the day Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1117 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1117 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 /1217 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A significant and dangerous severe weather outbreak is still anticipated this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected to form into an intense line of storms late in the afternoon and early this evening. Strong tornadoes, widespread and locally intense damaging winds, and very large hail, will be possible. Very heavy rain may cause localized flooding. Frequent deadly lightning will accompany strong storms as well. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms return to the forecast early next week, with Tuesday offering the next best chance for strong to potentially severe storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is anticipated later today into tonight.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0654 PM Tornado 1 ENE Clifty 37.00N 87.13W
05/16/2025 Todd KY Trained Spotter
&&
bmPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
659 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Ash Hill 36.77N 90.26W
05/16/2025 M59 MPH Butler MO Mesonet
Mesonet station UP918 1.4 W Ash Hill (UPR).
&&
bmPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
706 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0704 PM Hail 3 N Mounds 37.16N 89.20W
05/16/2025 E2.75 Inch Pulaski IL Public
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
707 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0707 PM Hail 1 SE Marion 37.72N 88.93W
05/16/2025 M0.88 Inch Williamson IL Trained Spotter
&&
bmPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
713 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 PM Hail Mounds 37.12N 89.20W
05/16/2025 M2.75 Inch Pulaski IL Public
&&
bmPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
716 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 PM Hail 2 E Pulaski 37.22N 89.18W
05/16/2025 E1.25 Inch Pulaski IL Public
Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).
&&
bmThe Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:19 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Penny size hail was measured in far southern Posey County, associated with a supercell which produced a tornado in Union County, Kentucky.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1272716.