An outflow boundary interacting with a warm and very humid environment triggered clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms across east-central Illinois during the evening of July 26th. 25 as per the 00z KILX upper air sounding, hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches occurred with the stronger storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
An outflow boundary interacting with a warm and very humid environment triggered clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms across east-central Illinois during the evening of July 26th. Thanks to precipitable water values around 2.25 as per the 00z KILX upper air sounding, hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches occurred with the stronger storms. The hardest hit location was across portions of Champaign County from just southeast of Mahomet east-northeastward to Rantoul. An observer 1 mile southeast of Mahomet measured 6.75 rainfall in just a couple of hours. The heavy rainfall led to scattered flash flooding...especially on the north-northeast side of Champaign.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 26, 1:25 PM CST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A medium probability (15-40% chance) of flash flooding exists today and tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for portions of central Illinois where an additional 1 and 4 inches of rainfall is forecast. - A Heat Advisory is in effect along and south of a Jacksonville to Danville line today. The oppressive heat will spread back northward across all of central Illinois Sunday through Tuesday as heat index values once again reach 105-115. - A low probability (5-15% chance) of severe weather exists north of the I-70 corridor today...with the primary risks being scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail. && .DISCUSSION...(through next Friday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Radar and satellite analyses show a decaying Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) moving across northern Illinois, with two outflow boundaries pushing south across central Illinois. These boundaries have mostly converged and eroded near a line extending from roughly Jacksonville to Gibson City. North of this boundary, conditions may remain stable enough to prevent new convective development this afternoon. Near and south of the boundary, CAPE/shear profiles are supportive of strong-to-severe storms and the potential for urban and small stream flooding. Many areas in west-central and north-central Illinois have already received multiple inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours, with rates exceeding 1-2 inches per hour. Given a similar air mass near and south of the residual outflow this afternoon, additional heavy rainfall pockets are anticipated into this evening across portions of central and southeast Illinois. Otherwise, the dangerous heat has continued into this afternoon, with areas within the Heat Advisory already displaying heat index values between 97-107 F even despite increasing cloud cover. By Sunday, a robust heat dome will extend northward into central Illinois, shifting the effective surface boundary out of our area and reducing upper-level flow and deep-layer shear. While boundary layer conditions will remain moderately unstable Sunday afternoon, especially near and south of the I-72/Danville corridor, within a wide area of very high PWATS (> 2 inches), the poor deep-layer shear suggests somewhat limited convective coverage and intensity. The primary concern will be torrential rainfall from any developing multi-cell clusters in the vicinity of a remnant outflow, wherever it evolves. Our posture on heat headlines have largely remained unchanged, with the current heat advisory most likely needing an extension/expansion across the region through Wednesday. While forecast guidance has persistently highlighted Monday and Tuesday as the hottest days of the period, some concern lingers regarding the evolution of upstream convection each of those days. This potential has come into better focus with this morning’s suite of hi-res guidance, where all of the HRRR, 3km NAM, ARW, and FV3 all depict decaying convection entering northern/central portions of Illinois by Monday morning. This convective debris could be enough to thwart an upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning on Monday, at least for a good chunk of our area. As a result, we will likely take a more conservative day-to-day approach with heat headlines, extending and expanding the current Heat Advisory as needed based on trends. A major pattern change still looks on track to occur Wednesday into Thursday, with significantly cooler and drier conditions forecast by the back half of next week. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The main aviation forecast concern is for periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, with the potential for them to persist through much of the evening hours, particularly near and just east of the Interstate 55 terminals. With recent satellite trends already showing growing cumulus developing across central Illinois, have decided to introduce a TEMPO group for TSRA this afternoon across the board between 18-22z, with the focus being near the KSPI/KDEC/KBMI terminals into this evening. Confidence and coverage are both lower this evening, and have therefore proceeded with a PROB30 group for TSRA that spans the late evening period. Winds will mainly be from the southwest around 10 kts, though we will need to monitor for abrupt changes in speed and direction due to thunderstorm outflow. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027-028-030. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ049>057-061>063- 066>068-071>073. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271945- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler- Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott- Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 239 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Heat indices up to 100 degrees are expected through early evening near and south of I-72. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight. Some evening storms could have isolated damaging wind gusts. Also, high rainfall rates could produce localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Dangerously hot conditions persist through early next week. Afternoon heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees are likely through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Sunday and then again on Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. 25
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1147 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ESE Central Illinois 40.46N 88.87W
07/25/2025 McLean IL Trained Spotter
Delayed report of a 8-10 inch tree snapped
at base with time estimated from radar.
&&
RACSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
519 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
ILZ051-052-262245-
Sangamon-Christian-
519 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...
At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pawnee, or 9 miles south of Springfield, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Chatham, Rochester, Pawnee, Divernon, Clear Lake,
Sangchris Lake State Park, and Glenarm.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 55 between mile markers 78 and 97.
Interstate 72 between mile markers 98 and 104.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3953 8964 3962 8975 3982 8958 3962 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 234DEG 21KT 3963 8963
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DeubelbeissPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM Funnel Cloud 3 NNE Seymour 40.14N 88.41W
07/26/2025 Champaign IL Public
Videos received of a funnel cloud three
quarters of the way to the ground via
partner chat from broadcast media from
viewers.
&&
RACPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0635 PM Flash Flood Rantoul 40.31N 88.16W
07/26/2025 Champaign IL Broadcast Media
HWY 136 underpass is flooded and the road is
closed.
&&
RACThe Lincoln radar (KILX), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:37 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The US-136 underpass in Rantoul flooded and the road was closed.
Cars were driving through bumper-deep water flowing across the road on the north side of Champaign.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1277339, 1277340.