A severe QLCS entered west-central Illinois during the evening of July 11th. As it passed, the system produced tree damage in Adams County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
A severe QLCS entered west-central Illinois during the evening of July 11th. As it passed, the system produced tree damage in Adams County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 5:29 PM CST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 629 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms could be severe this evening, mainly across northeastern MO and west-central IL, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. - A relatively active pattern will exist through next week with varying daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, although most of the period will be dry versus wet. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A hot and humid day is underway with temperatures in the 90s F and dewpoints in the 70s F supporting heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105 F as well as a very unstable airmass with MLCAPE of 2500 to 3500 J/kg. A subtle mid-level perturbation and responding low- level confluent flow will continue to result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across southeastern/east-central MO and southwestern IL this afternoon/early evening. Weak microbursts with gusty winds are possible with these thunderstorms but overall strength will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer wind shear. The main focus of showers and thunderstorms as well as severe thunderstorms is across northeastern MO into IA this afternoon, reaching northeastern MO and west-central IL this evening. As an upper-level shortwave trough overspreads a surface low and quasi- stationary front straddling the MO-IA border surface-based initiation of thunderstorms is forecast. Initial thunderstorms could exhibit transient supercellular characteristics with 20 to 30+ kt of deep-layer wind shear in those area, capable of all hazards including a tornado. However, most CAMs indicate that this activity will remain just northwest of northeastern MO and west-central IL until upscale growth into an MCS takes place with cold pool development through the 23 to 02z timeframe, leading to predominantly a damaging wind threat. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding is also possible with PW approaching 2" and deep warm cloud depths mainly before the strengthening cold pool would accelerate forward motion. As the MCS continues to track southeastward, all model guidance indicate that it will be weakening and increasingly outflow dominant as it encounters weaker low-level and deep-layer wind shear before it reaches the I-70 corridor. Along with a minimum in shower and thunderstorm coverage Saturday morning, HREF membership indicates that the outflow from this evening's MCS will fully clear the CWA. Subsequent convective inhibition, lingering clouds, and a lack of discernible large-scale ascent limits confidence in where and how much redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon, with 20 to 30 percent of membership having development along the cold front reaching the I-44 and I-70 corridors. A greater amount of membership depicting development along remnant outflow largely to the east/southeast of the CWA. Broken clouds and frontal passage in the northwestern half of the CWA will lead to a much cooler day on Saturday with high temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 F. Pfahler && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 On Sunday, model guidance has varying solutions of convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough or MCV tracking northeastward through the CWA sometime during the morning or afternoon, accompanied by a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms (50 to 70 percent chance of measurable rainfall) mainly south of I-70 or along/south of the front's position at that time. This feature will also be accompanied by a conditional threat of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding (efficient rainfall favored with potential slow cell motions) along with microbursts containing gusty winds. Sometimes MCVs can create an enhanced environment for severe thunderstorms within a less favorable background environment, which will need to be monitored, although there is currently no strong support for this scenario. Otherwise, NBM high temperature distributions are very similar both Saturday and Sunday, supporting little change between days outside of more numerous showers/thunderstorms. A broad upper-level ridge and weakness of flow will dominate the Mid- Mississippi River Valley Monday through Tuesday allowing both a northward advancement of the front that will have been wavering across the region with warming temperatures from weak low-level southerly WAA and continued opportunities of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should be mostly diurnally driven but model guidance indicates the potential for a few slow- moving mid-level perturbations/MCVs meandering with the weak flow. During the second half of the week, upper/mid-level quasi-zonal flow will overlay more of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, leading to greater ensemble membership containing measurable rainfall with stronger bouts of ascent associated with more robust passing shortwave troughs. The details of these patterns are very difficult to decipher at this juncture including the timing and amplitude of these features, ultimately determining the the timing, coverage, and placement of showers and thunderstorms. That said, more of this period will be dry than wet. NBM probabilities of 90+ F high temperatures increase each day Monday through Wednesday, especially in the St. Louis metro and southwestern IL, which would be accompanied by increasing moisture/dewpoints. There are mixed signals for a cold frontal passage around Thursday or Friday next week with uncertainty largely in whether or not the front fully clears the region or stalls. This leads to increasingly uncertain temperatures (NBM IQR 7 to 10 F) and the summit of ensemble model- based probabilities of showers and thunderstorms (40 to 60 percent). Pfahler && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 While a brief isolated shower can't be ruled out near KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS for the next hour or two, the main focus for impacts through this TAF period continues to be a broken band of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front set to sweep over the terminals this evening and overnight. This band has not behaved upstream as originally anticipated, and is tracking a few hours later than what was thought. This has been accounted for in the most recent TAFs, though if this trend holds and storms are even later, then the chance of them producing impacts at local terminals will be lower. In the wake of the storms and along the front tomorrow morning, low VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected. Weather model guidance shows ceilings getting lower than currently forecast, but that occurs after sunrise, which is not climatologically favorable in the heart of the warm season. Therefore, there is only a very low chance that ceilings could come in lower than forecast. After ceilings improve in the late morning/early afternoon, VFR flight conditions are expected through the remainder of the period. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121945- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 244 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are likely this evening into tonight. A few thunderstorms could be severe late this afternoon and evening, mainly in northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a chance of thunderstorms over portions of the region Saturday through Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Pfahler
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:16 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down trees and powerlines around Quincy.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1273208.