NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 1:15 PM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jun 19, 1:15 PM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shortwave trough moving in tonight into Friday morning, supporting
isolated showers and thunderstorms further north.
- Cold, Gulf of Alaska low moving in this weekend, helping to
support continued gusty winds, precipitation chances further north,
and a 20-30 degree cool down.
- Weekend system exits Sunday night as conditions turn warmer
and drier for the work week next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Very warm temperatures in place today with most of the forecast area
already running some 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this
time. Satellite imagery shows ridge axis just to the east of the
region, with upstream closed low in Gulf of Alaska. Broad area of
shallow convection developing across the central mountains could
lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through
tonight. Very dry surface airmass would indicate potential for
little to no precipitation with these, and gusty outflows. The upper
low continues to progress toward the coast and inland tonight and
into Friday. Frontal boundary pushes across the region early Friday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by
afternoon/evening mainly north of a line from Sun Valley to Driggs.
Strong winds are still anticipated to develop by afternoon across
higher elevations of the central mountains, portions of the southern
highlands, and the Arco Desert north toward the Montana border. Will
hold off one more forecast cycle for headlines, but believe best
chances for headline will still be a Wind Advisory across the Arco
Desert and Raft River regions, and a Lake Wind Advisory for American
Falls Reservoir. 90th percentile wind gusts across these regions
could max out around 55 mph. Otherwise, temperatures begin their
slide with highs on Friday dropping some 10-15 degrees off today's
readings, to the upper 70s/lower 80s. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm potential continues overnight again mainly across the
north. Winds should decrease somewhat around sunset, but will remain
breezy through the overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Upper low continues to progress into East Idaho for the weekend.
Main story will be the continued breezy to windy conditions,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms increasing in coverage through
Sunday, and the much cooler temperatures. Valley highs will
generally range in the 60s, some 15-20 degrees below normal. Lows
Saturday night drop into the 30s, but should stay above thresholds
for Frost or Freeze headlines. However, these colder temperatures
and continuing showers should mean some snow accumulation generally
above 6500-7000 ft elevations. Most higher elevations will see
accumulations in the 1-3" range, but higher amounts around 6" will
be possible for portions of the Lost River and Pahsimeroi ranges, as
well as portions of the Frank Church north of Stanley and Challis.
The breezy winds continue into Saturday, but should be shy of any
headline thresholds. Sunday stays cool with temps generally in the
60s once again. Models have slightly increased the spread of showers
across the region as well. Upper trough shifts out of the region
Sunday night, but western US remains under the influence of broad
troughing. Another shortwave reinforces the trough Tuesday into
Wednesday for East Idaho. Overall unsettled pattern remains in
place, but temperatures do rebound from the cool weekend back toward
normal by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the period with breezy winds and
increasing clouds as a shortwave arrives tonight. CAMs continue to
feature what will most likely be virga today given how dry
conditions at the surface. Winds will be breezy this afternoon,
with gusts to around 25 kts, before becoming stronger beginning
late Friday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Above normal temperatures, breezy winds, and dry conditions will
persist this afternoon, with widespread minimum humidities in the
teens and singe digits. As the ridge of high pressure shifts
eastward and a shortwave arrives tonight, temperatures will decrease
tomorrow while RH values will increase a bit, especially further
north, but winds will become stronger beginning late Friday morning.
This will mean elevated fire weather conditions across the region
both today and tomorrow. 20 to 30 mph gusts this afternoon will give
way to widespread 30 to 45 mph gusts throughout the day tomorrow,
increasing beginning late morning. Considering fuels below 5500' in
FWZ 427 are now considered "approaching critical," combined with
near critical to critical fire conditions due to strong winds and
low minimum humidities, we have coordinated a Fire Weather Watch
with South Central Idaho Dispatch for this zone on Friday from 1 PM
to 10 PM MDT. As the upper low shifts over Idaho on Saturday,
temperatures will dramatically drop by 20 degrees, give or take, and
remain fairly stable through the weekend. Winds will also remain
breezy each afternoon through the weekend but to a lesser degree
than Friday. Regarding precipitation and thunderstorm potential,
Fire Weather Zones 475, 476, 422, the northern portion of 411, and
the eastern portions of 410 will have the greatest chance of showers
and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday being that they're situated
further north. Light snow accumulation is expected above 7,500' in
the central mountains Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for IDZ427.
&&
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp