Hawaii, 2025

Drought in Hawaii, January 1 to 29, 2025

January 1 to 29, 2025 · NWS HFO · 1 event in 1 county or zone

While much of the state received above average rainfall in January, extreme drought conditions remained in some areas due to the low rainfall from the previous months. The portions included southwest Kauai, west Molokai, southwest Maui, and west and upslope Big Island.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HFO wrote it up.

While much of the state received above average rainfall in January, extreme drought conditions remained in some areas due to the low rainfall from the previous months. The portions included southwest Kauai, west Molokai, southwest Maui, and west and upslope Big Island.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Honolulu, HI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 8:58 PM HST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 8:58 PM HST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
858 PM HST Tue Dec 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system building in north of the Hawaiian Islands
will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast
through Thursday. Thankfully the winds will be strong enough to
blow out all that New Year fireworks smoke by morning. The high
pressure system will drift east away from the state late Thursday
causing the trade wind speeds will weaken and veer from the
southeast direction from Friday into early next week. This pattern
shift will bring us back to a sea breeze pattern with limited
showers and possibly a return to VOG (Volcanic fOG or smOG) for
all islands west of the Big Island. No significant rainfall
expected for the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The satellite picture this evening shows a low to mid level
disturbance moving westward across the island chain. This system
will enhance trade wind showers into New Years Day, mainly over
windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early
morning hours. Farther northwest of Kauai a weakening cold front
approaches the Hawaii region, this next system will likely
diminish before reaching the state with limited weather impacts.

Looking into the winds, we see a high pressure system building
eastward into the Central Pacific basin over the next two days.
This high will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast
through Thursday. Trade winds will then weaken from Thursday
night into Friday as the high center moves into the East Pacific
basin; farther away from the islands. By Friday, wind directions
will veer out of the southeast direction and weaken into early
next week. These lighter large scale southeasterly winds will
allow sea breezes to expand across all islands. The high pressure
ridge aloft will produce a stable environment over the island
chain, keeping clouds and shower activity to a minimum.
Southeasterly wind flow will transport VOG or sulfur dioxide
(SO2) from the Kilauea Volcano northward, likely affecting all
Hawaiian Islands from Friday into early next week. This VOG plume
will mainly affect people with breathing conditions, similar to
smog in a big city.

Peering into the extended range forecast, a weak cold front will
approach the islands from Tuesday to Wednesday. Southerly wind
flow during this time period, ahead of the approaching front may
produce brief periods of pop up showers, favoring southern
mountain slopes. The latest model consensus shows this shallow
front moving into the western islands from late Tuesday night to
Wednesday of next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect continued moderate to locally breezy trade winds into
Thursday. Showers will fall mainly over windward and mountain
areas, favoring the overnight to to early morning. Brief MVFR
conditions may occur within showers, but otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail, especially at the TAF sites.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 090
south through west of high terrain on Maui and the Big Island.
This AIRMET will likely be needed for the next few days, and may
need to be expanded to cover islands farther to the west
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge north of the main Hawaiian islands will maintain moderate
to locally breezy trade winds into Thursday. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Wednesday for the typical
windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island, but could
be extended into Thursday. The ridge will erode from the west as a
front approaches, which will cause the winds near the islands to
weaken and veer to the southeast and then south Thursday night and
Friday. Winds are expected to remain southerly through the
weekend as a series of fronts approach from the northwest, but
dissipate and/or lift north before reaching the islands. A
stronger front approaching from the northwest Monday night is
currently expected to move down the island chain.

Two significant northwest swells are expected in the coming days.
The first large swell is expected to arrive late tomorrow
afternoon or evening and persist through Thursday. The second
even larger northwest swell is expected on Saturday and should
linger through Saturday.

A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for north and west
facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu which starting at noon
tomorrow. This first swell hasn't arrived at the offshore buoys
to the northwest of the islands yet, but guidance has been
consistent in timing --meaning a quick rise in surf heights
beginning later today. The current HSA may need to be expanded to
include north facing shores of Maui and possibly west facing
shores of the Big Island if buoy observations come in higher than
model guidance.

The second, larger, northwest swell is expected to build in
rapidly Friday night and crest above warning levels on Saturday
and Sunday. The swell is expected to exit almost as quickly, but
advisory level will likely linger into Monday night.

Surf along south and east facing shores east facing shores is
expected to remain small. Conditions will likely be choppy
through Friday along east shores due to the breezy trade wind
flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next
seven days. Trade winds will remain at moderate to locally breezy
speeds with relative humidities staying above critical levels
through the week. Trades should ease to become light to moderate
this weekend through early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory from noon Wednesday to 5 PM HST Thursday for
north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for windier waters
and channels near Maui and the Big Island.

&&

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Bedal
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Kauai Southwest

When
January 1, 12:00 AM HST to January 29, 12:00 AM HST
Where
Kauai Southwest forecast zone
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
22.011, -159.705 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The USDA on Kauai reported that a producer operating in the southeast side of the island may need to reduce his herd size due to lack of feed. Ranchers have been continuing to provide supplemental feed.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Hawaii in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Hawaii, January 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1229778.