Hail in Georgia, May 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
152 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday ahead of a slowly
approaching cold front. Above normal temperatures continue ahead of
the front, falling back to near normal Sunday and Monday. Unsettled
pattern possible by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1146 AM EDT Friday: Now that we have passed the diurnal
minimum, we're starting to see some redevelopment of the deep
convection on the radar in the past 30 min or so. The area east of
the mtns has been able to destabilize nicely, courtesy of plenty
of sun, to the point where we have about 2000 J/kg of sfc-based
CAPE to work with. Expect more storms to form into the afternoon
along an old outflow from the convective remnants that crossed
the mtns earlier this morning. Temps look ok, now that the mtns
are starting to recover.

Otherwise...expect little forcing the first part of the day today,
as a robust upper trough digs into the Ohio Valley and pushes a
surface cold front eastward...though it'll remain well to our west
throughout the period.  Guidance is in good agreement on initiation
of convection along this boundary during the early afternoon, and
brings a mature MCS into the Tennessee Valley by Friday evening,
but the overall forecast for our area remains...mushy.  A few of
the CAMs depict some scattered convection over the area through
the afternoon, but most models prefer to keep things quiet until
the MCS arrives...and even then, they can't agree on how far
it'll make it into the Carolinas before faltering.  Critically,
it could be racing against diminishing daytime instability, but
should otherwise encounter a sheared environment conducive to
convective organization.  Though confidence isn't great on how
much convection will make it into the area, certainly can't rule
out a few strong to severe storms, especially into the evening
as mature QLCS activity arrives from the west.  Would expect the
primary threat to be straight-line wind, though large hail and
even localized heavy rainfall could pose secondary threats.

Just as it's unclear how quickly convection will begin, it's
unclear how quickly it'll wrap up, with some of the 06z CAMs
depicting showers and thunder persisting well into the overnight.
After midnight, should see things wane with the complete loss of
surface-based instability, giving way to a cloud, and possibly
foggy Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday night and Sunday. A
few could be strong with an isolated severe chance

2) Cold front should pass through the area Sunday

3) Cooler temperatures for the end of the weekend into Monday

As of 140 PM Friday: Continuing on Saturday night, an emerging omega
blocking pattern sets up over the CONUS. The cut-off low to the NW
of the CWA slowly drags a weak cold front across the area by Sunday.
This has been a steady slowdown in guidance and prolonging the
passage. What it means in terms of weather is a longer unsettled
pattern now extending into Sunday. Current trends in guidance keeps
showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, and the
illusive front crossing by Sunday night. PoPs Saturday night remain
higher (>80%) before tapering off through Sunday. The better chance
for showers is east of the mountains as the front comes through. As
for rainfall, the QPF response remains has increased a bit from
previous guidance and has a range of 0.25-1" of additional rain
Saturday night through Sunday night. The higher amounts are expected
to be east of the mountains, but could change as we get closer to
the event. No hydro concerns at this time. However, not everywhere
will receive this amount and is highly dependent on where a shower
or storm goes over. Temperatures have trended slightly cooler for
the weekend, but remain close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Drier pattern Sunday night through midweek

2) Unsettled pattern could increase rain chances toward the end of
next week

3) Temperatures start off cooler and gradually warm through Wednesday

As of 100 PM Friday: The extended part of the forecast is more on
the uncertain side as an unusual pattern emerges across the entire
CONUS. Synoptically, the omega blocking pattern sticks around Monday
before the eastern cutoff low starts to get kicked out of the flow
by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Quasi higher pressure attempts to
push into the area, keeping the weather dry. By mid-week, guidance
gets wonkier and tries to develop a semi-rex block, with the
southeast caught in the middle. This has the potential for a
relatively unsettled pattern. Depending on how this pattern emerges,
could generate some showers toward the end of the period. Given the
uncertainty and general strange pattern, there is not a lot of
confidence in the extended period. Will continue to monitor over the
next few days. Overall, the pattern has trended drier, especially
for the beginning of the week. For the lower confidence in this
messy pattern, will keep PoPs at slight chance for various portions
of the area through most of the period. Either way, expect
temperatures to remain closer to normal and slowly warm with another
small dip possible by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunderstorms developing along an old outflow
boundary may affect the Upstate terminals through the mid/late
afternoon, with a large hail threat at KGMU/KGSP. If the storms
hold together, they would possibly affect KCLT around 21Z or so,
but confidence was sketchy as to them making it that far east. We
will continue to evaluate and look for an amend to handle that if
needed. Otherwise, most of the convection will affect northeast GA
and the Upstate through the afternoon. Outside of storms...VFR. Most
of the storms will weaken with the loss of heating. We shall look
to the west this evening for the possible development of a line or
band of showers and storms. The HRRR has this arriving from the
west around 02Z then affecting the terminals west to east in the
late evening or early morning hours. It is not clear that it will
make it across the entire forecast area, so PROB30s were used. In
its wake, a low cloud MVFR ceiling can be expected, lasting well
into the morning given the higher low level moisture. More storms
will develop overhead by midday Saturday. Outside of storms,
winds will be generally SW.

Outlook: Unsettled weather and associated restrictions are expected
to continue into Sunday. In the wake of a cold front on Sunday,
drier weather and predominately VFR conditions are expected to
return by early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MPR/PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
529 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-058-059-
062>065-068>070-501>510-SCZ008-010>013-019-101>109-030930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
529 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail, mainly this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail again Saturday and Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ057-071-072-082-SCZ009-014-030930-
Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-York-Chester-
529 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina and
part of South Carolina near the Catawba River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail Saturday and Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1200 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ010-017-SCZ101-104-021630-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
1200 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HABERSHAM...SOUTHERN
RABUN AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1159 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Clayton, or near Tallulah Gorge State Park, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Rabun, Mountain Rest, Long Creek, Tallulah Falls, Batesville,
Turnerville, Tiger, Hollywood, Lake Burton, and Walhalla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3488 8333 3492 8291 3472 8290
      3467 8332 3469 8334 3466 8337 3462 8364
      3465 8366 3466 8366 3467 8365 3471 8364
      3473 8362 3476 8363 3479 8367 3481 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 261DEG 31KT 3477 8336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1244 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ017-021715-
Habersham GA-
1244 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HABERSHAM COUNTY THROUGH
115 PM EDT...

At 1244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clarkesville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Demorest, Hollywood, Turnerville, and Clarkesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8361 3472 8341 3463 8339 3454 8343
      3457 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 272DEG 15KT 3463 8355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
115 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ017-018-SCZ101-104-021800-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
115 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS...EAST
CENTRAL HABERSHAM AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

At 115 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Toccoa, or 4 miles south of Tallulah Falls, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hollywood, Westminster, Walhalla, Tallulah Falls, Turnerville, Long
Creek, Tallulah Gorge State Park, and Toccoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8338 3472 8335 3474 8335 3475 8333
      3483 8306 3472 8305 3464 8306 3460 8344
      3471 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 262DEG 19KT 3465 8337

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
127 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Hail             2 E Walhalla            34.78N 83.03W
05/02/2025  M0.88 Inch       Oconee             SC   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports dime- to
            nickel-sized hail at the intersection of
            Fowler Rd and SC 11.

&&

JMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
131 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     Hail             1 SE Walhalla           34.76N 83.04W
05/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Oconee             SC   Public

            Public reports quarter-sized hail in West
            Union, SC. Report time verified with radar
            data.

&&

JMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Hail             6 E Walhalla            34.79N 82.96W
05/02/2025  E1.25 Inch       Oconee             SC   Emergency Mngr

            Oconee County Emergency Management shared
            video of quarter- to half-dollar sized hail
            at 7031 Keowee School Rd. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

JMP