Funnel Clouds in Florida, May 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
722 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

- Sensitive fire conditions remain today, continuing this weekend
  as lightning chances increase

- Rain and lightning storm chances begin today along the Treasure
  Coast with coverage increasing Saturday and especially
  Sunday/Monday

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Today-Tonight...Dry weather continues this morning as scattered
cloud cover moves overhead. Temperatures range from the mid 60s
inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Recent RAP model soundings
indicate a well-established 450-800mb dry layer, with a modest
increase in moisture near the surface. This is especially the case
along the coast and over the local Atlantic, where a few shallow
showers are ongoing. Based on hi-res models and current
satellite/radar analysis, the forecast was refined to show a low
(~20%) chance of showers and lightning storms from late morning to
early afternoon along the Treasure Coast. Some activity may
attempt to drift inland toward portions of Okeechobee and Osceola
counties, but dry air will inhibit westward movement before
showers dissipate.

For much of the area, today will remain dry with near to slightly
above normal temperatures (low-mid 80s coast, mid-upper 80s
inland). An east-southeast breeze is forecast to increase this
afternoon through early evening as the sea breeze pushes inland.
Gusts around 20 mph are possible as a result. A mix of sun and
clouds can be expected, with more cloud cover south of Cape
Canaveral. Tonight, sky conditions gradually improve from west to
east as temperatures settle into the mid and upper 60s.

Saturday-Sunday...With drought conditions affecting all of east
central Florida recently, rain in the forecast is a welcome sight
for many. Return flow will help to advect better moisture over the
area Saturday and Sunday as high pressure begins to break down
and shift eastward. A cold front stretching from the Gulf Coast to
the northeast U.S. will slowly move in our direction over the
weekend but not reach the local area until Monday. Modest 500mb
height falls, combined with a more active pair of sea breezes and
better dynamic support aloft, will set the stage for increasing
rain and lightning storm chances (especially by Sunday). Weaker
forcing on Saturday keeps rain chances lower, around 20 to 30
percent in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s
to low 90s, with the east coast breeze providing a slight cool down
into the low 80s at the barrier islands. Any afternoon showers or
isolated storms that do develop will be capable of brief heavy
downpours and gusty winds.

By Sunday, mid level temperatures cool to around -13/-14 degC as a
shortwave moves over south-central Florida. A stronger west coast
sea breeze is forecast to approach a pinned east coast sea breeze
Sunday afternoon, sparking scattered rain and lightning storms.
Higher MUCAPE values (1500+ J/kg) and backed surface flow is
modeled closer to the Atlantic coast, along with steep low-level
lapse rates. Surface-based storms that can establish persistent
updrafts will have the potential of producing strong gusty winds,
frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Cooler 500mb
temps may also support some ice growth, though hail potential
appears lower at this time. Rain totals of 0.25"-0.50" with
locally higher amounts of 1-2" are forecast, especially closer to
the I-95 corridor. Activity will drift offshore Sunday evening
with conditions drying out Sunday night into early Monday.

Monday-Thursday...Monday brings another chance for showers and
lightning storms as the west coast breeze remains active and a
front meanders near or just north of the area. An afternoon sea
breeze collision is forecast once again, leading to convective
development. Similar to Sunday, heavy downpours, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms.
Comparatively drier air arrives Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps
lasting through Thursday over a better portion of the area. Model
solutions remain variable from Tuesday onward, so confidence
is low in any isolated rain chance through mid week. Temperatures
will remain similar, near to slightly warmer than normal in the
extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions will remain over the local
Atlantic into the weekend, outside of gradually increasing rain
and lightning storm chances. A southeasterly breeze freshens each
afternoon and evening before veering southerly ahead of an
approaching (and weakening) cold front on Sunday. This front is
forecast to briefly stall near or just north of the waters early
next week. Seas 2-4 ft, locally higher in the vicinity of heavy
downpours and gusty lightning storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 658 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected with high pressure
(~1022mb)over the W Atlantic. TEMPO MVFR CIGs are forecast at KSUA
between 14Z-18Z with the potential (20-40%) for MVFR CIGs at
times at KFPR/KVRB. Light ESE/VRB winds are forecast this AM
before ESE winds increase to 12kts with gusts up to 20kts after
14Z at the coastal TAFs and into the afternoon/evening at the
inland TAFs with the sea breeze before weakening tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Dry weather conditions and fuels over much of the area, combined
with an easterly breeze, will present sensitive fire weather
conditions today. Despite increasing moisture and rain chances
this weekend, lightning storms will bring an increased risk of
additional fire starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  66  85  67 /   0  10  30  30
MCO  87  66  90  69 /  10   0  30  20
MLB  82  69  83  69 /  20  10  30  30
VRB  82  67  83  68 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  88  68  89  69 /   0   0  20  20
SFB  87  66  89  68 /   0   0  30  20
ORL  87  68  89  69 /  10   0  30  20
FPR  82  67  83  68 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Fehling