NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 6, 12:58 AM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 6, 12:58 AM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1258 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across the Mid-Atlantic region today
before shifting farther offshore Tuesday. Behind this system,
very cold and dry high pressure will prevail across the region
until the end of this week. Another low pressure system however
may arrive next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, low pressure is progressing toward our
region as expected, with clouds overhead and snow starting to
break out across the Delmarva. Overall, thoughts on the forecast
have not changed significantly, with snow still expected to
spread northeastward through the rest of the overnight and early
morning hours, then retreating back southward as the warm
advection ends early this afternoon. However, it still looks
like snow will linger across areas mainly south of Philadelphia
into tonight as the upper level trough swings through, possibly
reinvigorating the snow for a time, though not nearly to the
magnitude we're expecting this morning, when rates of 1 inch per
hour or more could occur across the Delmarva and far southern
NJ. These areas could also still mix with some sleet/freezing
rain/rain after the height of the warm advection burst, however,
guidance has trended further south with the mixing trend (as it
has with precip overall), so the risk of mixing has diminished a
bit and now looks confined to the immediate southern coast of
Cape May County and southeastern portions of Sussex County
Delaware, again mainly this afternoon, before it changes back to
snow. Totals have dropped a little more across central and
northern areas, with the northern tier of the warning now just
barely reaching criteria and the northern tier of the advisory
doing likewise, but for now will keep the headlines as
inherited. On the flip side, have nudged totals up a little in
the Delmarva and far southern NJ where the warm advection and
persistence of cold air show the best odds of bringing totals
near to 1 foot. High temps will generally stay below freezing
today except for the immediate coast in Cape May and Sussex
counties, where temps may edge up into the mid 30s. Fortunately,
winds will mostly be light today, mainly less than 10 mph, so
wind chills and blowing snow won't be a huge issue...yet.
Tonight, upper trough passes and then moves on out, with snow
ending across southern areas later at night after having already
done so north of Philly late today. Winds will start to pick up,
so will start to feel the real bite of wind chills and perhaps
some blowing snow. Lows mainly in the teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday will be the first in (another) string of cold and windy
days with Arctic high pressure once again building towards the
area. Skies will feature some clouds N/W and sunny skies for
Delmarva and south NJ. High temps Tue will only reach the upper
20s to low 30s most spots. Winds will be northwest 15 to 25
gusting up to 40 mph so this will likely lead to some issues of
blowing and drifting snow. Wind chill values will mostly be in
the teens and some single digits N/W. Fair weather Tue and Tue
night. Lows Tue night in the teens and low 20s.
Little change is expected for Wednesday as it will be another
cold and windy day similar to Tuesday. It will remain dry,
however.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will continue throughout the extended
period. Northwesterly flow will continue across the area
through Thursday and into Friday as the mid-level trough axis
shifts east off of the coast. Highs on Thursday look to be below
freezing area wide, with lows Thursday night in the mid teens
across the Poconos, and the upper teens/lower 20s across the
rest of the area. As the trough axis exits the coast and we
begin to see subtle mid-level ridging across the area, a slight
moderating trend can be expected. While temperatures may rise
above freezing in many locations during the day on Friday and
Saturday, they will stay below normal through the extended
period, with most locations only rising into the mid 30s at
best.
A potentially active pattern will resume beginning Friday night
and especially on Saturday as another upper-trough and
associated surface low pressure system works its way toward the
area. As expected at this forecast range, there are major
discrepancies between each deterministic model, and from run to
run. For now, went with mostly NBM probabilities for
precipitation, though tempered them a little, and have chance
PoPs for snowfall Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Until 12Z...VFR then quickly becoming IFR toward dawn as snow
overspreads the terminals. Snow may not reach KABE/KTTN/KPNE
until around or just after 12Z, but elsewhere, visby will tank
down to around 1 mile or less with cigs dropping below 3k ft.
Light northwesterly winds becoming northeasterly. Moderate
confidence.
Today...IFR to LIFR with widespread snow. Snow will be heaviest
and last longest around KMIV/KACY/KILG with an increasing
chance of improvements as one heads later in the day at KPHL,
even better chance at KPNE, better still at KTTN, with by far
best chance of a return to VFR at KRDG/KABE toward sunset. Winds
light and northeasterly. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...VFR prevails at KRDG/KABE, returns during the evening
at KTTN and KPNE, and returns after midnight at
KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY as snow moves out. Winds becoming
northwesterly and increasing to around 10 kts. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR. NW winds gusting 20 to 30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Light winds and low seas presently will increase as low pressure
moves off the coast and strengthens later today and tonight.
Winds start to pick up this evening across the Delaware waters
and further north as the night wears on. SCA starts south and
spreads northward tonight with gale warning following on its
heals. By late tonight, northwesterly winds increase to 20-25
kts with gusts to 35 kts with seas of 5-7 feet.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Wednesday...Winds and seas ramp up with NW
Gales expected over the waters Tuesday through at least Tuesday
night. A Gale Warning is in effect.
Thu/Thu night...Low-end Gales or SCA expected. Fair but cold.
Friday...Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
expected.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ070-102.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
PAZ060-071-101-103-104-106.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ016>018-
021>025-027.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
NJZ019-020-026.
DE...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for DEZ001.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ430-431-450>453.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ430-431-450>453.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
this evening for ANZ454-455.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ454-455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/MJL/RCM
MARINE...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/RCM