Cold in Texas, January 6, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1038 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1036 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

- Dangerous wind chills are expected tonight into Monday morning.

- Below average temperatures continue much of this week.

- Monitoring for potential wintry precipitation Thursday into
  Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Light snow continues across much of northern into central Oklahoma
as moisture wraps around the backside of the mid-level low
traversing northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Short range
models show the 925-850 mb layer drying significantly after 00z
this evening which should bring an end to much of this activity.
Some locations could pick up a dusting of snow but gusty winds
will likely continue to blow it around and prevent it from
accumulating much on roadways. Much colder temperatures have
spread across the region with readings in the upper teens across
portions of northern Oklahoma and 20s/low 30s further south.
Combined with winds still gusting 30-40 mph at times, wind chills
are in the teens and single digits in most locations. With cold
advection continuing overnight expect the coldest night of the
season as temperatures fall into the single digits and teens with
wind chills near or below zero across the northern half of the
area and in the single digits south. A Cold Weather Advisory has
been issued for the entire area tonight into Monday morning.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Below average temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday as
northerly winds continue to maintain a cold airmass over the region.
Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and
teens.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

We continue to monitor the potential for another storm system to
impact at least portions of the area during the Thursday through
Friday timeframe as a cutoff low over the Southwest US tries to
phase with northern stream energy diving across the Rockies. Not
much has changed overall regarding the major pieces at play as the
thermal profiles remain only marginally supportive for snow and
things will need to come together just right to bring significant
snow to the area. Ensembles remain most confident in accumulating
snowfall across the southern/southeastern portions of the area
(largely due to heavier QPF) with greater uncertainty the further
north and west you go. For example, NBM probabilities for >1% of
snow are about 50% at Durant but taper to only 20% at OKC during
this period. Another way of looking at it, NBM25th percentile
shows no snow in our area (due to a combo of warmer temps and/or
drier conditions) while 90th percentile would be greater than 4
inches of snow across much of the southern half of the region.
Bottom line, confidence is still quite low during this period with
everything still on the table from a significant winter storm to
little to no snow for the area. Continue to check back as models
begin to hone in on a solution over the next few days.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Light snow showers are possible across central Okalhoma, in
addition to MVFR ceilings. These conditions will improve through
the night, where VFR conditions will be expected tomorrow. Gusty
northerly winds will relax tomorrow across the whole area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  13  30  13 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         31  14  36  15 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  16  38  18 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           20   9  31  13 /  90   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34   6  22   6 / 100   0   0   0
Durant OK         63  18  35  18 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13