A generally warm and dry month of May in combination with a drier than normal winter has led to Extreme (D3) Drought to persist across portions of western Colorado.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A generally warm and dry month of May in combination with a drier than normal winter has led to Extreme (D3) Drought to persist across portions of western Colorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 10:42 PM MST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1142 PM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue tonight and Thursday across the CWA as a slow drifting frontal boundary will produce thunderstorms and some mountain snow showers. - Temperatures remain stable across the region tonight and Thursday. Highs surge back above climatology Friday and into the weekend ahead of another disturbance. - Unsettled conditions will keep some shower activity on the terrain through the week and into the weekend. Widespread precipitation is expected to develop Sunday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025 A frontal boundary draped along a Price, UT to Steamboat Springs heading is producing scattered rain showers this afternoon, along with a few thunderstorms. This will continue this evening, with convection likely tamping down after sunset. Cooling temperatures at the higher elevations(above 9000 feet) will produce some light snow accumulations tonight on the Flat Tops and Park Range. The slow moving/decaying front will stay in the picture Thursday. Much of the CWA, excluding northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, will remain under cloud cover and light precipitation as a series of shortwaves continue to ripple through ahead of a pinched off low hanging back across the Great Basin. Additional instability on Thursday will produce more widespread thunderstorms across the region, especially on the terrain. A few snow showers will likely fall in the alpine too. Pass level roads are expected to remain wet with temperatures too warm for meaningful snow rates. Drier air aloft begins to filter in Thursday evening from the northwest. This will turn off much of the shower activity, except for the San Juans and along the western shoulders of the Continental Divide. Some light snow can be expected on Vail Pass and along the 550 corridor late Thursday night. Again, nil accumulations are expected. Weak subsidence should squash any remaining precipitation by daybreak Friday. The increase in cloud cover will keep overnight lows tonight a few degrees above climatology, while highs Thursday afternoon will vary from near normal to above normal given enough sunshine in the valleys not impacted by rain showers. Clearing skies tomorrow night will see our cold basins dip below freezing again behind the front. The Gunnison Basin will be up against cloud cover, but I went ahead and knocked lows down a few degrees below model guidance given the likelihood of clearing skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025 A high amplitude ridge occupies much of the northwestern CONUS at the start of the long-term period. Dry, northwesterly flow should thus result in much of the region in a less-active pattern heading into the weekend. The exception to this may be across the far southern portions of the CWA where moisture from the mid-week frontal system stagnates as a result of split flow between the departing Upper Plains trough, and the slowly-propagating closed low centered over Southern California. The NBM is reasonably confident in the potential for measurable precipitation over the San Juans and the southern slopes of the Sawatch range (60-75% probability as of this morning's NBM run). Most precipitation is expected to fall as rain due to the warming temperatures during this period, but some rain- snow mix to wet snow cannot be ruled out at high elevations with snow level forecasted around 10 kft. Expect for precipitation to reach its heaviest late in the afternoon into the evening as the southern California low moves through the Desert Southwest, leading to marginal destabilization over the Four Corners region and San Juans. Cluster analysis depicts high confidence in the deepening of a trough at 500mb across the west coast beginning Saturday, with the primary source of uncertainty being the strength of the low. Clusters with stronger influence from GEFS members tend to exhibit a more powerful low. Regardless, ensembles are in steady agreement in the closing of the low on Sunday as it digs into the Desert Southwest. Precipitation should begin ramping up as soon as heights begin falling ahead of the trough, which may be as soon as Saturday evening, with storms becoming more widespread as we fall further underneath the low. The attendant cold front would bolster our precipitation potential even further, though FROPA timing is very uncertain at this moment as models begin to diverge on Monday. Should the low stall out (as some models suggest as of now), a multi- day precipitation event lasting through the middle of next week may be in store for the region. Until guidance comes into better alignment from Monday onwards though, it will remain difficult to distinguish the duration of this system's residence over the CWA. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1127 PM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Showers are working across central portions of Utah and Colorado and will be slowly drift southward through the morning. Under the heavier showers MVFR/IFR conditions will be temporarily possible. This showers will mix with thunderstorms later in the day on Thursday with impacts mainly south of I-70. Gusty winds near storms will be the main threat. Clearing is expected across the North through the morning hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...GJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 402 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011015- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 402 AM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorm development will be possible today with small hail and gusty winds to 45 mph the main threats. Snow will fall at the higher elevations with some minor travel impacts possible over the higher passes tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorm development will be possible daily as the weather pattern remains unsettled. High elevation snow will also be possible with most of the impacts remaining near to above timberline. There is a low probability of travel impacts during the overnight hours over the high mountain passes. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
733 PM MDT Wed Apr 30 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0522 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 16 NW Moab 38.75N 109.75W
04/30/2025 M49 MPH Grand UT ASOS
ASOS station KCNY 16 NW Moab.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought remained unchanged across the Grand Valley, with only the eastern half of the zone under Extreme (D3) Drought conditions during the month.
The area of Extreme (D3) Drought along the spine of the far southern Divide mountains in western Colorado remained unchanged during the month of May.
A very small portion of the Roan and Tavaput Plateau zone is under Extreme (D3) Drought conditions, but these conditions persisted throughout the month of May. In addition, the area of Severe (D2) Drought expanded substantially across the zone.
The De Beque to Silt Corridor (CO Zone 007) began the month with Extreme (D3) Drought at its western extent, covering less than a quarter of the zone. This area expanded slightly over the course of the month, but remained less than a quarter of the zone.
The Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin (CO Zone 011) started the month of May with Extreme (D3) Drought analyzed across over 75% of the zone. By the end of the month, this area of Extreme (D3) Drought had expanded to cover over 90% of the zone.
Extreme (D3) Drought was analyzed as covering over half of the Grand and Battlement Mesas zone at the beginning of the month of May. By the end of the month, Extreme (D3) Drought had expanded to cover over 80% of the zone, with only the far northern portion of the zone still under Severe (D2) conditions.
At the beginning of the month of May, Extreme (D3) Drought was analyzed across the furthest western tip of the Upper Gunnison River Valley (CO Zone 014), covering less than 10% of the zone. By the end of the month, that area of Extreme (D3) Drought had expanded slightly, covering approximately 10% of the zone. However the area under Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) Drought had expanded greatly by the end of the month.
The Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide (CO Zone 017) began the month with around 50% of the zone under Extreme (D3) Drought conditions. By the end of the month, the area analyzed as being under Extreme (D3) Drought conditions had expanded to cover around 75% of the zone.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1267543, 1267552, 1267557, 1267560, 1267562, 1267566, 1267569, 1267581.