Moisture was slowly increasing around an area of high pressure to our west, allowing for diurnal showers and storms to form over the high terrain and drift into some lower valleys. Some of these decaying showers produced strong outflow wind gusts even with no lightning present over Rangely Airport with a gust to 58 mph.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Moisture was slowly increasing around an area of high pressure to our west, allowing for diurnal showers and storms to form over the high terrain and drift into some lower valleys. Some of these decaying showers produced strong outflow wind gusts even with no lightning present over Rangely Airport with a gust to 58 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 2:39 PM MST, 51 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 339 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms on terrain will continue to produce gusty outflow winds, favoring areas closer to the Continental Divide Wednesday. - Hot and dry conditions persist across the lower elevations through most of the forecast period, with localized critical fire weather returning Thursday. - Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will remain visible through the period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 328 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Monsoon moisture is streaming north, skirting our eastern counties this afternoon. Dry slotting in the lower atmosphere over the Four Corners has produced a steep moisture gradient along the UT/CO state line. This allowed for ample sunshine this morning to ramp up convective initiation on area terrain features. Closer to the Divide, where the richer monsoonal plume is concentrated, dense cloud cover has limited some of the convection. The synoptic pattern remains unchanged Wednesday, thereby keeping the hot, dry air mass along the state line, with moisture continuing to stream north over the Continental Divide. This will find us under another round of terrain based thunderstorms and showers Wednesday afternoon. Ensemble PWAT's are less than 60 percent of climatology in eastern Utah, while barely reaching 100 percent of normal near our side of the Continental Divide. This doesn't inspire confidence in shower production. There will be remnant moisture to work with, but dry boundary layers are expected to chew up rainfall rates. High res guidance is pretty anemic for showers tomorrow afternoon, with the best chances closer to the Divide, dropping off near zero at the Utah line. The Abajos and La Sals, having received some rainfall this afternoon will keep non zero chances for showers. The jet streak nested in the base of the upper level trough over SOCAL continues to duel with the monsoonal plume Wednesday night. Ensembles suggest moisture will increase across the Four Corners, despite dry air intruding from the west. Temperatures will hover around normal for the mountain towns, but the low deserts ramp up above climatology Wednesday thanks to the abundant sun and negligible cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 328 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The center of high pressure will be in the process of shifting west on Thursday, with the associated ridge stretching north through the Intermountain West. This shifting of the high will disrupt the already weak moisture tap from Mexico, cutting eastern Utah and western Colorado off. However, enough moisture will remain trapped near the surface to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain into the weekend, but with decreasing coverage daily. Thursday will see the best coverage, with activity starting over the higher terrain and then moving out over adjacent valleys. This day will also see the highest probability of localized heavy rain, although gusty outflow winds and lightning remain the primary concerns. As the high establishes itself over the border between Mexico, California, and Arizona, drier air will be advected into the Four Corners on westerly to southwesterly flow. This will contribute to the daily downturn in convective activity. Across the lower elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado, low minimum relative humidity values will persist through the period. However, synoptic winds remain light through the end of the week and into the weekend, resulting in localized critical fire weather conditions where afternoon gusts manage to over-perform. However, a trough approaching the West Coast late in the weekend will nose an upper level jet into the region, and create a tightening pressure gradient aloft, all resulting in strengthening surface winds. This means that more widespread critical fire weather conditions are looking increasingly likely for early next week. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Scattered to broken cloud cover will pool along the Continental Divide and on the terrain to the west today. Showers and thunderstorms will form on the terrain as well. Included TEMPO TSRA at mountain terminals this afternoon. Brief ceiling reductions and gusty outflow winds will pose challenges to aviators today. Showers will decay around sunset. Some leftover cloud cover will hang around the mountains overnight, but VFR conditions will prevail into the end of this TAF period. Winds will be generally light southwesterly with a few afternoon gusts on terrain. Outflow winds are expected to be erratic around showers and gust 35 to 45 mph. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...BGB AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-301200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will be possiblethis afternoon and evening, mainly over the San Juans and central mountains. Gusty outflow winds will be the main concern. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Moisture will slowly start to increase from the south causing convection to increase. The widest coverage looks to occur on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
302 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0234 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NW Aspen 39.23N 106.87W
07/29/2025 M49 MPH Pitkin CO ASOS
ASOS station KASE 3 S Woody Creek.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0131 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Meeker 40.05N 107.88W
07/29/2025 M49 MPH Rio Blanco CO ASOS
ASOS station KEEO Meeker Airport.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
314 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0303 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Basalt 39.36N 107.03W
07/29/2025 M50 MPH Pitkin CO Mesonet
Mesonet station CO101 082w023 Basalt-Holland
Hills.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak wind gust of 58 mph occurred at the Rangely Airport at 1535 MST due to a decaying shower with no lightning present.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285749.