An occluding front moving southeast across far southwest Oregon into far northern California brought heavy snow to elevations above 3000 feet in much of Siskiyou County.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An occluding front moving southeast across far southwest Oregon into far northern California brought heavy snow to elevations above 3000 feet in much of Siskiyou County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 9:57 PM PST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
957 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z...
.SHORT TERM...Radar imagery this evening is showing mid level
clouds and light showers moving into southwest Siskiyou County.
Models remain on track with the low pressure approaching the
southern Oregon coast tonight into Thursday morning and sending a
frontal system into the region. Precipitation with this front will
be heaviest in Curry and western/southern Siskiyou Counties. Snow
levels will start low (possibly down to some western valley
locations) but rise during the late night and early morning as
precipitation increases and spreads across the area.
Areas that are likely to see impacts from heavy snow are the
mountains in Siskiyou County and areas near Mount Shasta City. A
winter storm warning (WSWMFR) is in effect for these areas. In
Oregon, moderate snow is expected in the Southern Oregon Cascades
and eastward into Klamath and western Lake counties. West of the
southern Oregon Cascades, conditions are more variable. Current
observations indicate temperatures have dropped to near freezing
in some valleys locations in Josephine County as well as areas in
Douglas and Jackson counties. As precipitation moves up from the
southwest, there remains chances for light snow, before warm air
advection and rising snow levels result in precipitation changing
to rain in valleys. The best chances for a period of light
snowfall accumulations or a wintery mix with rain/snow/ice pellets
is expected in Josephine County, where a winter weather advisory
is in effect tonight. Precipitation will change to rain though
Thursday morning as the front moves inland and precipitation
increases. Gusty southeast winds are expected in the southern
Rogue Valley and southern Shasta Valley. In the the Rogue valley,
around Medford and southward, these winds may increase
temperatures slightly above freezing and lower chances for light
snow tonight. Then rain is expected for these areas Thursday as
snow levels rise. Further north in Douglas county, high resolution
models support mainly light rain spreading in late tonight.
However, there remains a slight chance for a period of light snow
before precipitation changes to rain, especially for lower passes
near Canyon Mountain. Additionally there is a low (5-15%) chance
for light freezing rain late tonight into early Thursday morning
in far northwest Douglas County, generally north of Drain.
The front will move across the area Thursday morning and early
Thursday afternoon with snow levels rising to around 3500-4500
feet or slightly higher. Then, as the low center moves onshore
Thursday afternoon and night, the flow of moisture into the area
will continue and expect widespread showers to develop.
Western/southern Siskiyou and Curry counties will continue to see
moderate to heavy snowfall impacts over the mountains. Moderate
snow showers will also affect the Southern Oregon Cascades with
light to moderate showers east of the Cascades. Meanwhile most
areas west of the Cascades, except higher mountains, will see rain
with showers, as snow levels remain around 4000 feet.
The showery pattern will continue into Friday, then weak high
pressure builds in Friday night bringing a period of drier weather
into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...13/06Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across northern
California, although upper level clouds are starting to arrive ahead
of an approaching low pressure system. A few possible scattered
showers are visible on radar over areas west of the Cascades.
Activity will increase overnight and continue across the area
through the TAF period.
With a cold air mass remaining over the area as precipitation
arrives, periods of winter precipitation (snow, rain snow/mixes, or
ice pellets) are possible west of the Cascades early Thursday
morning. With snow levels rising to 3500 feet by 15Z, precipitation
should fully transition to rain by that time. East of the Cascades,
snow showers are expected through the TAF period. An airport weather
warning for Klamath Falls starts at 08Z to communicate expected snow
accumulation of at least an inch on the runway. Both rain and snow
showers across the area could locally lower ceilings and snow levels
as well as obscure elevated terrain.
Periods of gusty winds remain in the forecast over elevated terrain
and into some area valleys are expected. Wind Advisories are in
place for the Shasta and Rogue valleys. Gusty winds still look to
mostly fall short of Medford, but could mix down and increase over
expected speeds. Wind shear remains in the TAF forecast over areas
west of the Cascades before shear decrease into Thursday afternoon
and evening. -TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Wednesday, February 12, 2025...Low
pressure and a frontal system offshore will move in this evening
with increasing SSE winds and building seas. A period of gale force
winds and very steep, hazardous seas is likely to accompany the
frontal occlusion over the outer waters south of Cape Arago with
conditions hazardous to small craft elsewhere. The occluded front
will move onshore Thursday and as the low moves inland Thursday
night into Friday, large long period swell will develop. These waves
will peak in the 14-17 foot range with wave periods of 14-17
seconds. This will maintain hazardous conditions to small craft
through Friday night.
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 230 PM PST Wednesday, February 12, 2025...
A long period west to southwest swell train will follow low pressure
which is expected to move onshore Thursday night into Friday
resulting in hazardous breaking waves in the surf zone. Guidance has
been consistently showing marine waves in the 14-17 foot range with
wave periods of 14-17 seconds. This would bring breaking waves of 20-
23 feet to the surf zone and area beaches. These waves could wash
over rocks/jetties and into normally dry areas. Beach erosion is
also possible. Use extra caution if you plan to visit area beaches
late this week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025/
..Updated AVIATION discussion...
DISCUSSION...After the cold morning things have still been
overall quiet with sunnier skies while high clouds move in from
the west. Klamath Falls had a hard time getting out of the single
digits even after 1 PM today!
I should say that everything was overall quiet, that is unless
you're in Ashland where gusts of 25 mph were found this afternoon! A
Wind Advisory will be in effect tonight from 10 PM to 9 AM tomorrow
for southern parts of the Rogue Valley and the Shasta Valley. During
this time winds will reach 25-35 mph in the Rogue Valley and south
winds will reach 35-45 mph in the Shasta Valley.
Areas east of the Cascades have temperatures right now in the teens
and 20s and are expected to fall back into the teens to negatives
tonight. There is a 60-80% probability for areas in northern Lake
and Klamath counties to see temperatures fall to 0. With that,
these areas and an area near Lakeview have been added to a Cold
Weather Advisory tonight. Please see NPWMFR for more information.
There will also be temperatures nearing the low 30s for the
coast, but there is less than a 20% probability to reach freezing
there, so there will not be a freeze warning for the area
tonight. With how cold parts of the east side were this afternoon,
you might see that temperatures will actually RISE overnight! By
tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will be a few degrees colder than
normal.
The precipitation will begin tonight closer to 10-11 PM at the
southern Oregon coast. With lower snow levels below 2,000 feet
around this time, if the precipitation comes in quicker to southern
Oregon, areas under colder air could see a wintry mix or some snow.
However, the coast and most areas west of the Cascades in Southern
Oregon are favoring rain during this time. The east side is another
story with below freezing temperatures continuing, so snow is going
to fall there and that will start between 1-3 PM. The products are
still on track for tonight into tomorrow, so please go to WSWMFR for
that information. BR-y has an excellent discussion from last night
that goes into details what we're watching for with these
temperatures near the freezing mark tonight. -Hermansen
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 9 AM PST Thursday for ORZ026.
High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 2 PM PST Friday for
ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Thursday for ORZ024-
027>030.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ080-082-083.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM PST Thursday for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ370-376.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
The National Gridded Snowfall Analysis indicated storm totals of 6 to 12 inches at elevations above 3000 feet. Precipitation amounts included 0.89 inches at Quartz Valley, 0.47 inches at Quartz Hill, and 0.94 inches at Sawyers Bar.
The National Gridded Snowfall Analysis indicated storm totals of 8 to 18 inches at elevations below 6000 feet, including amounts of 8 to 14 inches in valleys. Precipitation amounts included 1.55 inches at Mt. Shasta City, 1.68 inches at McCloud, and 1.51 inches at Ash Creek.
The National Gridded Snowfall Analysis indicated storm totals of 6 to 12 inches at elevations below 6000 feet. Precipitation amounts included 0.85 inches at Round Mountain, and 0.34 inches at Tenant Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1273445, 1273448, 1273460.