Tornado in Mississippi, February 12, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
541 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...NEW MESOSCALE AND AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

There will be a corridor of severe weather that continues through
this evening along and south of a warm front that has been
convectively modified but roughly extends from central Perry
county in southeast Mississippi northeast through northern
Washington, northern Clarke, and west central Wilcox counties as
of 4:45pm. This front will attempt to lift slowly northward with
time, but be augmented back south in segments where storm scale
outflows from storms push southeastward. This front separates a
very warm and moist airmass with mid to upper 70s temperatures and
near 70 degree dewpoints. Just north of the front the near surface
airmass remains quite stable with lower 60s dewpoints and
temperatures.

Along the warm front, enhanced vorticity pooling along with
enhanced low level stretching will raise the potential for
tornadoes in the vicinity of the boundary. This will be the area
where the tornado threat will be greatest. At this time, many of
the storms increase rotation near the boundary but have been quick
to cross north and become elevated. In areas where the boundary
has become convectively modified and oriented increasingly
northeast to southwest there will be a potential for supercells to
become latched on to the front and support longer lived supercells
with more persistent rotation and relatively higher potential for
more persistent tornado threat. This will be highly mesoscale
driven and we will provide updates via social media and chat to
locally highlight these areas and threats as they become apparent
through the evening.

Further south, there are a few mini supercells embedded within the
warm sector. These storms have struggled to maintain persistent
strong mesocyclones with a relatively lower overall tornado
threat. High wet bulb zeros along with relatively strong storm
relative inflow will more likely require the need for storm
nudgers to enhance the storm rear flow downdrafts (RFDs) to allow
for improved balance with the strong storm inflow. This would
support a locally enhanced tornado threat with mini supercells
within the warm sector.

Further to the west, surface winds have veered which is supporting
an increasingly linear storm modes with a few lines of storms
along both a prefrontal surface trough and the actual cold front.
A 1003 mb surface low near KJAN will continue to slowly lift
northeast through the night. Surface winds south and east of this
low remain sufficiently backed with continued enhanced storm
relative helicity and sufficient instability, especially packed in
the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere. Therefore, expecting
the threat for tornadoes to continue through the night with the
greatest focus near the warm front and across northern portions of
our forecast area. Also, a stronger tornado cannot be ruled out
but will remain a more isolated threat as strong shear continues
to overlap the stronger low level instability especially with
supercells latched to the warm front. The only limiting factor for
strong tornadoes is the relative weak mid level height falls. The
threat west of I-65 should persist through around midnight. As
storms move east of I-65 after midnight, storms should gradually
weaken as the upper trough begins to lift out to the northeast. We
will continue to monitor the threat through the evening and
provide additional updates as needed. /JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

MVFR ceilings will drop to IFR tonight as a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms moves in from the west along an approaching cold
front. Low level wind shear will be present at around 40 knots at
2kft out of the southwest this evening, along with the potential
isolated damaging winds and potentially a tornado or two. Storms
will progress slowly from west to east overnight, resulting in in
reduced visibility's, gusty winds and IFR to VLIFR ceilings.
Southerly surface winds of 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts to
around 25 knots will shift northerly late this evening through the
overnight hours in the wake of the cold front. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      53  67  42  65  56  77  57  64 / 100  20   0  10  20  20  90  30
Pensacola   61  70  47  65  59  73  63  67 /  90  60   0  10  20  20  90  50
Destin      63  73  49  68  60  73  64  69 /  90  80   0  20  10  20  80  70
Evergreen   53  65  38  65  51  77  56  62 /  90  30   0  10  20  10 100  40
Waynesboro  46  60  36  65  50  78  49  58 / 100   0   0  10  30  30 100  20
Camden      47  59  35  63  48  75  51  60 / 100  10   0  10  30  20 100  40
Crestview   60  72  42  68  53  76  61  67 / 100  70   0  10  10  10  90  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CST Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CST Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

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