Arkansas, 2025Flood in Arkansas, January 1, 2025
January 1, 2025 · NWS LZK · 1 event in 1 county or zone
River flooding took place on the Black River at Pocahontas to begin early January. The flooding began in December and continued into early January.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
River flooding took place on the Black River at Pocahontas to begin early January. The flooding began in December and continued into early January. The river remained in minor flood stage and the crest occurred in December with no secondary crest occurring in January.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:22 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 11:22 PM CST, 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
After a cloudy start to the day across just northern Arkansas...the
clouds have continued to push south through the day with breezy
conditions being noted across of the forecast area. Across the
country, a low pressure system is located over the Great Lakes
region with its associated cold front sagging south into our neck of
the woods. This has resulted in breezy conditions and clouds
increasing from north to south through the day today.
Tonight, the pressure gradient will relax and winds will begin to
weaken with ceilings lifting and scattering out. New Years eve
festivities should be relatively comfortable with light winds and
temperatures in the 30's and 40's. Low temperatures Wednesday
morning will be near normal with temperatures ranging from the upper
20's to mid 30's.
Behind the cold front, surface High pressure will settle in over
Arkansas. With high pressure firmly in control of our weather,
temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the 40's to lower
50's with lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's with no precipitation
in the forecast until late in the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
A complex fcst remains in the long term w/ the main point to note
including steady confidence on winter wx potential for at least
portions of Nrn AR, and possibly into Cntrl AR during the Sun-Mon
timeframe (Jan 5-6).
Initially to start the PD, an Omega H500 flow pattern wl be in
place, w/ the basal region of longwave troughing extending into the
Srn Plains and acrs the FA on Fri. At the sfc, a broad region of sfc
high pressure over the Nrn Plains wl be advancing Swrd under
prominent DCVA and forcing for descent near the inflection point of
shortwave ridging over the Cont Divide and the aforementioned
longwave trof. As depicted by sfc T progs, this sfc high wl be
accompanied by a Continental Canadian airmass, and should usher in
another shot of cold air into the Cntrl US during the Fri-Sat
timeframe. Locally, colder air wl lkly be seen by much of the FA by
Sat, w/ overnight lows falling to the mid to upper 20s by Sat mrng,
though no precip is anticipated w/ this system.
The nose of this strong sfc high pressure wl remain in place over
the Cntrl to Srn US, setting up a strong baroclinic zone, oriented
fm N/W to S/E acrs the OK/TX panhandle towards the
ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS vcty.
The next upper lvl system we are watching for winter wx impacts
locally is fcst to be over the Pac-N/W on Fri, and dive S/Ewrd into
the Srn Plains thru the weekend. Global ensemble clustering methods
continue to depict a few prominent solns on the evolution of this
main trof, including a slow outcome, w/ the trof bcmg elongated w/ a
wider wavelength over the Cntrl US, blocked by height rises/ridging
over the Midwest, and a fast outcome, w/ the trof bcmg a compact
wave, and translating faster acrs the FA, triggering a stronger sfc
mass response. The latter of these outcomes would result in stronger
low-lvl kinematics and mesoscale forcing.
On the deterministic lvl, the run-to-run differences b/w the GFS and
ECMWF also depict two evident outcomes, w/ a sfc low developing
along the aforementioned baroclinic zone and quickly moving Ewrd as
the upper low ejects into the Srn Plains. The GFS continues to favor
an upper and sfc low placement/track that is conducive
(climatologically) for winter precip over portions of Nrn to Cntrl
AR. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to prog these features w/ a Nwrd
displacement, and thus, taking a less-favorable track for winter
precip in the FA.
The other topic to note is precip type... The nature of the
modulating shallow cold sfc layer that is expected to be in place fm
the initial cdfrnt on Fri wl lkly favor more freezing/rain and/or
sleet than primarily snow, at least thru early Mon mrng when
mesoscale processes surrounding the sfc low could be at their peak.
Pt fcst soundings also verify a thermal profile that would be
conducive for mainly freezing rain acrs Nrn to perhaps Cntrl AR thru
the overnight PD Sun night. A transition to snow as the primary
precip type could be seen over far N/Wrn to Nrn AR Mon mrng as
colder column air begins to infiltrate the region on the N/Wrn
quadrant of the passing sfc low.
Uncertainties remain in the fcst regarding placement and evolution
of synoptic features, however, there is an increasing degree of
confidence for winter wx potential acrs at least the N/Wrn half of
the state Sun night thru Mon mrng, including freezing rain.
Confidence on impactful accumulations (ice accretion up to one
quarter inch or more) is relatively low as well, but the potential
for winter weather early next week should be monitored, particularly
given the onset of possibly icy condns prior to a Mon mrng commute.
Thru the remainder of the long term, precip should quickly taper off
on Mon as the primary sfc low advances N/Ewrd. Over the next few
days, as has been advertised by longer range guidance and
climatological outlooks, a PD of below-nrml temps looks to ensue as
a true Continental Arctic airmass is progged to infiltrate the Cntrl
and Srn US by mid-week next week. The magnitude of temp anomalies is
still somewhat variable fm run to run in deterministic guidance,
however, ensemble mean guidance has been advertising mean sfc temp
anomalies of -25F to -35F below normal, which is fairly significant
for ensemble mean output.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
MVFR conds are expected at KHRO and KPBK overnight as low stratus
pinwheels around an area of low pressure north of the region.
Elsewhere, VFR conds should prevail through the TAF period. Conds
should improve over the northern terminals as high pressure
builds in. Winds will be light out of the N/NW at around 10 kts or
less tonight and on Wed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 31 48 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 34 53 31 55 / 0 0 0 10
Harrison AR 27 44 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 33 51 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 34 50 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 36 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 10
Mount Ida AR 31 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 28 45 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 31 46 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 34 50 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 31 51 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 31 48 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 34 48 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...56
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 2:19 PM CST, 9 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
219 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-012030-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
219 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Gusty northwest winds will continue today, with gusts over 25 mph
at times. An overall decreasing trend in wind speeds is expected
this evening as high pressure settles into the state. Otherwise,
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday
Unsettled weather is forecast across the region this weekend,
particularly Sunday through Monday. The potential for winter
weather, including freezing rain, will be possible over at least
northern, to possibly central Arkansas overnight Sunday night,
though uncertainty remains high for now.
By mid-week next week, much colder air is forecast to move into the
forecast area, with temperatures falling to well below average for
early January.
.Spotter Information Statement...
Spotter Activation Will Not Be Needed.
&&
Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.
Flood, Randolph
- When
- January 1, 12:00 AM CST to 4:30 AM CST
- Where
- Randolph County, 0.41 mi S of Pocahontas to 0.38 mi S of Pocahontas
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- River/Stream Gage
- Coordinates
- 36.254, -90.970
River flooding on the Black River at Pocahontas took place to begin the month of January. The river flooding at this site continued from December into January with the crest in minor flood stage taking place in December.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Drought in Nebraska, January 1 to 31, 202521 events
- Drought in South Dakota, January 1 to 31, 202519 events
- Drought in Tennessee, January 1 to 31, 202517 events
- Drought in Texas, January 1 to 31, 202516 events
- Drought in North Dakota, January 1 to 31, 202515 events
- Flooding and High Wind in California, January 1 to 4, 2025$1,000 · 13 events
- Lake-Effect Snow and Winter Weather in New York, January 1 to 5, 202512 events
- Drought in New Mexico, January 1 to 31, 202511 events
- Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Vermont, January 1 to 3, 202511 events
- Drought in New Mexico, January 1 to 31, 20259 events
- Drought in Montana, January 1 to 31, 20258 events
- Lake-Effect Snow in New York, January 1 to 5, 20258 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1246637.