The combination of an upper-level trough over the west coast and the subtropical high situated over Texas resulted in a southwesterly steering flow. 2 and MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, afternoon thunderstorms developed across the eastern third of AZ with some of the activity affecting southern Gila County, including the San Carlos area.
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The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.
The combination of an upper-level trough over the west coast and the subtropical high situated over Texas resulted in a southwesterly steering flow. With PWATs ranging between 1.0-1.2 and MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, afternoon thunderstorms developed across the eastern third of AZ with some of the activity affecting southern Gila County, including the San Carlos area. With DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, conditions were conducive for these thunderstorms to produce strong to severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 11, 12:32 PM MST, 3 hours 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1232 PM MST Thu Sep 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures gradually cool, with near to below-normal readings expected through the weekend. - Breezy conditions will develop once again this afternoon for parts of the region with peak gusts around 25-30 mph. - Outside of some isolated to scattered rain chances for eastern Arizona through the end of the workweek, the majority of our forecast area should remain dry over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The latest Water Vapor Satellite Imagery as well as streamline analysis depict an upper-level trough situated near eastern Oregon with the subtropical high situated over the southern Plains. This pattern configuration has resulted in southwesterly flow aloft across much of the Desert Southwest. However, at low-levels at around 700 mb, the flow is out of the south and thus low-level moisture continues to be advected northward through central and southern AZ with PWATs above 1.0". Even though the moisture content is marginal, enough moisture will be present to spark the development of shower and thunderstorm activity through early this evening, with the focus remaining across the eastern third of AZ, particularly across southern Gila and eastern Pinal Counties. The main impact with any of these thunderstorms will be some strong gusty winds, which can send an outflow westward into the lower elevations of south-central AZ, with the latest HREF membership indicating a 30-50% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph. Enough low-level moisture will remain present for Friday to result in around round of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms across the eastern third of AZ before conditions dry out completely over the weekend. Aside from the thunderstorm activity across the eastern third of AZ through Friday, the rest of the area should remain dry with some afternoon and early evening breeziness lingering with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph at times. With the trough moving through the western CONUS, temperatures during the next couple of days will continue to remain near to slightly below normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s across the western deserts to around 100 degrees across the Phoenix area with the overall HeatRisk levels remaining in the minor category. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heading into the weekend, models have the Pacific trough continuing its eastward progression, clearing Arizona by late Saturday/early Sunday. As it migrates towards the Great Plains, unseasonably dry air will cut off any further rain chances for our area as PWATs fall to only 50% of normal for this time of year. The good news is, even as we fully dry out, temperatures will not rebound as quickly as we have seen this summer as flow aloft becomes more zonal rather than rapidly shifting back to increasing high pressure. Temperatures this weekend will continue their end-of- week trend, with highs hovering near to slightly below normal. The overall picture becomes a little less clear as we approach next week. A lot of this uncertainty stems from what could become the next Tropical Cyclone over the Eastern Pacific. As of now, models generally favor the track of this system remaining off the western coast of the Baja Peninsula before eventually falling apart. However, it appears that some models want to bring some remnant tropical moisture toward our forecast area, which could result in considerable cloud cover and even rain chances. Subtle shifts in the forecast could yield a vastly different foreast solutions for this timeframe, so how this potential system evolves will be something to monitor in the coming days. As of now, global models favor the return of broad ridging by next week, which would translate to increasing temperatures back to above-normal levels, but there is a noticeable spread in the interquartile temp forecast potentially reflecting model uncertainty relating to the aforementioned tropical system. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1748Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: S to SE winds this morning will continue to veer toward the W/SW by early this afternoon with gusts increasing to upwards of 20-25 kts. Gusty winds will subside early this evening, however, uncertainty then increases in regards to the timing and magnitude of an easterly shift. Guidance show showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain east of Phoenix this afternoon before sending an outflow toward the west into the Valley this evening. This outflow may lead to an abrupt easterly wind shift in the 02Z-06Z time range as well as a 5-10% chance for a brief VCSH/VCTS. Otherwise, FEW-SCT cumulus decks around 8 kft are expected through the afternoon into the early evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns under clear skies are expected through the forecast period. Westerly winds will prevail at KIPL, while KBLH sees mostly S-SW, with a period of light northerly winds during the morning hours Friday. Sustained wind speeds will mostly remain aob 10 kts at both terminals, aside from a period of westerly sundowner winds at KIPL, with gusts to around 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near to slightly below normal temperatures will be common across the region through this weekend thanks to an area of low pressure passing to our north. Outside of some breezy conditions this afternoon with peak gusts around 25-30 mph, winds over the next several days will favor familiar diurnal trends. Most of our forecast area will remain dry, but some slight chances of wetting rains do exist for the high terrain of Gila County both this afternoon and Friday. MinRHs over the next few days are likely to range from 10-15% across the western districts to 15-25% across the eastern districts. By this weekend, even drier conditions are expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...RW AVIATION...Smith/Benedict FIRE WEATHER...RW/Lojero
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
418 PM MST Thu Sep 11 2025
AZZ560-563-120000-
Southeast Gila County AZ-San Carlos AZ-
418 PM MST Thu Sep 11 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT GILA COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM
MST...
At 418 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Carlos, or 19 miles east of Globe, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
San Carlos and Peridot.
This includes AZ Route 70 between mile markers 267 and 271.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3352 11017 3343 11025 3344 11032 3340 11035
3340 11041 3339 11042 3338 11045 3328 11045
3330 11053 3355 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 206DEG 14KT 3339 11042
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
18The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:21 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station QSCA3 San Carlos No. 1 in San Carlos measured a 62 mph peak gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292982.