A surface boundary over Central Florida with influence from a mid level shortwave trough led to diurnal showers and thunderstorms developing over Southeast Florida on the 11th and 12th of September.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A surface boundary over Central Florida with influence from a mid level shortwave trough led to diurnal showers and thunderstorms developing over Southeast Florida on the 11th and 12th of September.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 11, 1:09 PM EST, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 209 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 The current forecast remains on track for this afternoon and evening with another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. A quick surface analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary sitting in the South Florida region and keeping deep moisture pooled across the area. Latest ACARS data and this morning's 12Z observed sounding show PWATs right around 2.1-2.3". This ample moisture and adequate instability will continue to support increased convection this afternoon and evening. There remains a slight risk for excessive rainfall issued by the Weather Prediction Center for the risk of localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 An amplifying mid level shortwave trough will dig down across the Midwest and into the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern states today. This shortwave will further amplify and push further southward extending across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf on Friday. At the surface, this will help to push a frontal boundary that has been parked across Central Florida southward into region heading into tonight and Friday. As the front approaches South Florida, winds will be rather light and variable across most of the area through about mid afternoon before starting to take on more of a northerly direction later this afternoon into Friday. Plenty of deep layer moisture will continue to pool over the region out ahead of the front today and even heading into Friday with the boundary slowly moving southward across the area. This deep layer moisture is shown in the latest model forecast soundings with the skinny saturated profile across the vertical column and PWAT values fluctuating between 2.1 and 2.4 inches across South Florida through today and Friday. As diurnal heating develops and helps to destabilize the atmosphere, the sea breezes will develop and slowly try to push inland. These mesoscale boundaries combined with the frontal boundary pushing towards the area today and across South Florida on Friday will provide more than enough lift to support numerous shower and thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. With plenty of deep layer moisture, the stronger showers and thunderstorms will continue to have very efficient rainfall rates, some of which will continue to be on the order of 2-4 inches per hour in the strongest storms both today and Friday. With the continued potential of convective training combined with high rainfall rates, additional flooding concerns will be present especially across the eastern half of South Florida this afternoon and then again on Friday. All of these factors combined with the grounds being already saturated from previous heavy rainfall, a slight risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall will remain in place mainly across the eastern half of South Florida today and Friday. A marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) of excessive rainfall will persist across the rest of South Florida during this time frame. Rainfall amounts will continue to be highly variable through the end of the week and will be dependent on where the heaviest downpours set up in combination of where convective training takes place. In general, an additional 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall will be possible each afternoon and evening across most areas. There could be highly localized amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible each afternoon especially where thunderstorm training occurs, but this would be a worst case scenario, or in other words, a 1 in 10 chance of happening. High temperatures today will generally rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across South Florida. High temperatures may be slightly cooler across the Lake Okeechobee region on Friday behind the front as they will rise into the mid 80s, while upper 80s to around 90 will be common across the rest of South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Heading into the upcoming weekend, the weather pattern starts to change over the region as mid level troughing continues to amplify and the trough axis slowly begins to push eastward across the region as the weekend progresses. The latest guidance suite has come into better agreement over the past couple of runs and has backed off of the faster, more intense amplification of this trough into a closed low. This will ultimately affect the southeastward motion of the frontal boundary over the area as it will take a bit more time to push south of the area. This will also affect exactly how far south of the area the front actually makes it as some of the guidance now shows it stalling out over the Florida Keys. Because models still disagree as to how far south the front actually pushes over the weekend, the uncertainty in the forecast still remains a bit on the higher side. However, with the amplification of the trough taking more time, this will keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms elevated especially during the first half of the weekend along and south of Alligator Alley. As for the early portion of next week, guidance does continue to suggest that the amplifying mid level trough eventually does close off into a mid level low during this time frame. The placement of this low does differ a bit as the GFS solutions have it centered over the Carolinas, while the ECMWF does not bring it as far south and intensifies it over the Mid Atlantic States. At the surface, winds will begin to veer and become east northeasterly as Monday progresses. These winds will remain east northeasterly through the middle of the week and may start to intensify as the pressure gradient tightens up with a high building in from the north and the weakening frontal boundary remaining stalled out to the south. With the surface frontal boundary stalled out to the south, there will still be enough moisture in place to support convective development each afternoon and evening through the early and middle portion of the week. However, chances will not be as high during this time frame as some drier air does try to work in from the north. By the middle of the week, moisture may start to increase over the area as the guidance is showing some signs that the boundary tries to creep northward into portions of South Florida during this time frame. Since this is towards the end of the forecast period, uncertainty does remain high as guidance remains in disagreement with the timing and speed of the boundary being pulled back north. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and starts to increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms again towards the middle of the week. While high temperatures may be held down a bit by increased cloud cover on Saturday only rising into the mid to upper 80s, they will generally remain around climatological normals for the second half of the weekend into early next week rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 SCT to numerous SHRA and TS expected this afternoon again with potential for lower CIGs and VIS. Periods of MVFR/IFR or lower CIGs are possible with TEMPOs issued through 22Z for this threat. Winds become light and variable overnight with potential for another round of fog that may lower VIS in the late night period. Any fog will clear out by late morning tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 A light and variable wind flow across the local waters will gradually become gentle to moderate out of the north northeast later this afternoon and into Friday. These winds will remain gentle to moderate out of the north northeast through the upcoming weekend across all local waters. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet through the rest of the week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the rest of the week and into the first part of the weekend. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near the stronger storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches today as a northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters slowly begins to diminish. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 89 76 87 / 50 80 50 60 West Kendall 75 89 74 87 / 50 80 50 60 Opa-Locka 76 89 75 88 / 50 80 50 60 Homestead 75 88 74 87 / 50 80 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 76 87 / 60 80 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 89 76 87 / 60 80 50 60 Pembroke Pines 77 90 76 89 / 50 80 50 60 West Palm Beach 76 88 76 87 / 60 80 50 60 Boca Raton 77 90 76 88 / 60 80 50 60 Naples 76 89 75 89 / 60 70 40 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Redman
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
231 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
FLZ067-068-168-111900-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
231 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Palm
Beach County through 300 PM EDT...
At 230 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Village Of Golf, or near Boynton Beach,
moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Greenacres, Hamptons At Boca
Raton, Village Of Golf, Kings Point, Dunes Road, Whisper Walk,
Mission Bay, Loxahatchee NWR, Gulf Stream, Aberdeen, Boca West,
Aberdeen Golf Course, South County Regional Park, Morikami Park,
Villages Of Oriole, and Boca Raton Equestrian.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 2659 8025 2662 8014 2650 8006 2638 8008
2637 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 347DEG 13KT 2654 8019
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ATVSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
304 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
FLZ068-072-168-172-111930-
Coastal Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
304 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach Counties through 330 PM EDT...
At 304 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Delray Beach, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Highland
Beach, Boca Pointe, Boca Del Mar, Hamptons At Boca Raton, Kings
Point, Dunes Road, Whisper Walk, Gulf Stream, Fau South Campus, Boca
West, Sandalfoot Cove, Morikami Park, Villages Of Oriole, and Boca
Raton Equestrian.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 2643 8006 2642 8006 2638 8007 2632 8007
2633 8020 2649 8019 2650 8006 2648 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 326DEG 9KT 2643 8011
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ATVSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
507 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
FLZ074-173-112145-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
507 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 545 PM EDT...
At 507 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Miami International Airport, or near
Miami, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Doral, Pinecrest,
Miami Springs, West Miami, Medley, Gladeview, Glenvar Heights,
University Of Miami, Downtown Miami, Coconut Grove, Coral Terrace,
West Little River, Liberty City, Marlins Park, and Miami
International Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 2577 8019 2576 8019 2574 8022 2573 8022
2574 8023 2572 8024 2571 8025 2569 8025
2569 8026 2568 8026 2565 8034 2586 8032
2587 8022 2577 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 359DEG 13KT 2578 8028
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ATVThe Miami radar (KAMX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:14 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Reports of downed power lines and fencing associated with a strong thunderstorm that moved across the area. Timing is estimated based on KAMX reflectivity.
Local broadcast media and emergency management reported flooding along Arthur Street in Hollywood with the road submerged in water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1295552, 1295553.