High Wind and Winter Weather in Arizona, March 13, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1059 AM PDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread precipitation moves in today along with
continued gusty winds as an upper level moves through the region.
Main concern continues to be winter impacts above 5000 feet, with
Winter Storm Warnings and advisories for most of these locations.
Light precipitation chances linger on Friday before dry weather
takes hold this weekend. The pattern remains active with another
system set to move in early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Our main band of precipitation is now advancing into the
eastern half of the CWA, bringing widespread valley rain and
mountain snow. Snow levels seem to be between a little over 5000
feet and 6000 feet based on observations in the Spring Mountains and
Hualapai Mountains. As cold air tries to infiltrate the trailing
edge of this band, a change over to snow is expected this afternoon
at or above 5000 feet. Behind the main line, isolated showers (and
maybe a few rumbles of thunder) with snow levels around 4000 feet
may bring short-lived but heavier bursts of snow to places like
Goldfield, Pioche, the Hualapai Mountains, and I-40 at Fort Rock.
Precipitation chances come to an end tonight across the area, though
another round of lighter precipitation is expected tomorrow and
tomorrow night as a secondary system slides through. Minimal impacts
expected with this activity. Dry conditions prevail over the weekend
but another system takes aim early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday.

Radar imagery early this morning showed an area of precipitation in
California that developed ahead of a sharp upper level trough moving
into the West Coast. Strong forcing associated with the trough along
with increasing moisture has allowed for decent rainfall amount son
the western slopes of the Sierra. Further east, precipitation has
been slower and has remained light and isolated, mainly focusing on
the terrain. Light snow has been noted on area webcams in the Spring
Mountains, and SNOTELs in the Sierra have started reporting
accumulating snow.

Overall, the system is behaving as expected and no significant
changes were made to the forecast through Friday. The upper level
trough with strong forcing and a decent IVT plume with quickly shift
through the region today, with the main band of precipitation
currently in California shifting through with it. Along with the
forcing, precipitation this afternoon will have the added help of
weak instability developing in response to the moist airmass and
cold air aloft. Rain is likely in most location for a few hours at
least in most locations today, with snow expected in terrain above
6000ft. Through the morning, the highest impacts should be in the
terrain of central Nye County as well as in the Spring Mountains
where ensembles show a high chances (70%+) for snow rates of 1
in/hr. Areas around Goldfield, NV and north on US-95 could see
moderate snow rates of 0.50in/hr briefly late this morning. By this
afternoon when the area of precipitation transitions into Arizona,
snow and winter impacts will begin to impact portions of Mohave
County. A quick few inches will be possible east of Kingman, AZ
especially as steep mid level lapse rates suggests some convective
enhancement. The current winter headlines capture the expected snow
impacts and timing well with no changes needed at this time. Snow
levels of 5000ft-6000ft with the main band of precipitation will
rapidly drop to 4000ft or less behind it as colder air filters in
with the passing of the trough axis. Most of the precipitation with
the main area of precipitation will be dissipating or have ended by
the time the colder air arrives, however will need to watch if wrap
around precipitation develops in the cold core this afternoon. A few
hi-res models suggest this happen with scattered showers developing
in Esmeralda or Nye counties that would shift southeast into Lincoln
and Clark counties in the afternoon and evening. While this
precipitation should be light as drier air will also filter in with
the cold air, however light snow and winter impacts are roadways in
valley areas would be possible if this second round of precipitation
develop occurred. The trough will continue to shift east tonight,
taking the precipitation with it. Anything that develops in the cold
core of the trough axis this afternoon will also dissipate after
sunset. Dry conditions are expected tonight. On Friday, there will
be a reinforcing piece of energy that swings into the region. More
precipitation may develop in response to this second wave, however
the forcing and moisture will be less than the system going through
today. Therefore, any precipitation impacts will be less on Friday
and whatever develops will be more scattered in nature.

Winds will be the other main impact with this system. Gusty south
winds have already reported across California and Esmeralda and Nye
counties with widespread gusts over 40 MPH reported. Elsewhere,
south winds have gusts 15-25 MPH. As the trough moves through, winds
will increase across the rest of the region for west to east. Gusty
south winds over 40 MPH are likely across much of the region by this
afternoon. Wind advisories and wind impact wording in the winter
headlines capture the timing and expected impacts through the day.
Winds will drop off tonight, with impacts ending in most locations
after sunset expected in the western Mojave Desert and Yucca Valley
where gusty winds will continue through the night. This is also
where the best chances for additional wind impacts will develop as
gusty west winds develop with the second wave on Friday. Additional
wind headlines may be needed in parts of San Bernardino County on
Friday, elsewhere winds will remain south and gust 20-30 MPH Friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

After the system departs the region on Friday, northwesterly flow
aloft will give way to midlevel ridging, allowing for a warming and
drying trend heading through the weekend. Increasing thicknesses
will allow temperatures to rebound closer to normal by Sunday, with
highs in the 60s and 70s across lower elevations and 50s for most
mountain areas, with the warming trend continuing into Monday as
temperatures top out a couple of degrees above normal (normal for
Las Vegas this time of year is 70-71 degrees). In addition to the
warmer and drier conditions this weekend, winds will also be quite a
bit lighter, making for a great weekend for those who have outdoor
plans. However, the progressive pattern shows no signs of stopping,
with the next in a series of troughs progged to impact the area
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Ensembles and cluster analyses
have remained in good agreement regarding the timing of this trough,
expected to move through the region as an open wave. However, there
remain discrepancies in the depth of the system, which will largely
dictate precipitation chances and potential wind impacts. Currently,
trends have leaned more toward a drier system, with little in the
way of appreciable precipitation and a greater potential for another
round of breezy to windy conditions. Regardless, in the wake of this
system, temperatures will cool down Tuesday and Wednesday, marking a
return to slightly below normal temperatures for mid March.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Rain
showers remain in the vicinity of the terminal through the early
afternoon with periods of light rain showers at the terminal
itself. BKN ceilings down to 3000 feet are possible with the
showers. Another round of rain showers may move through the area
this evening, but most showers should remain near high terrain and
confidence in showers reaching the terminal itself is low. Gusty
southwesterly winds are expected to continue through the afternoon,
gradually shifting to the west by the evening.Speeds remain over 10
knots out of the southwest tomorrow morning with gusts increasing
again in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light showers will
continue to move across southeast California, southern Nevada, and
northwestern Arizona through the afternoon. Ceilings in the 3000 to
5000 foot range will accompany the showers near the terminals.
Another round of rain showers may move through southern Nevada this
evening, but most showers should remain near high terrain and
confidence in showers reaching either KHND or KVGT is low.
Southwesterly winds increase this afternoon, but begin to weaken in
the evening. The exception is KDAG, where westerly winds gusting to
35-40 knots remain overnight. For tomorrow, westerly to
southwesterly winds will increase again in the Las Vegas Valley and
Colorado River Valley and begin to shift to the northwest at KBIH.
Showers move through KDAG in the morning, reaching the Colorado
River Valley and possibly the Las Vegas Valley in the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

UPDATE...Woods
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Meltzer

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