High Wind in Arizona, February 11, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 AM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures expected today with gusty,
southwest winds through this evening. Isolated showers may develop
later in the day over northeastern Arizona. Several troughs will
move through over the next few days with increasing chances for
precipitation. Best chances for precipitation look to be later
Thursday through Friday. Warm and dry conditions return later in the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A large trough over the western United States this
morning will move slowly eastward through Wednesday. Northern
Arizona will be just ahead of the trough axis today, and this is
where the strongest winds aloft are located. 700mb (near 10K ft
msl) winds will be 40-50 kts through early this evening, resulting
in surface winds from the southwest at 20-30 mph gusting 40-55
mph along the Mogollon Rim, White Mtns, and adjacent portions of
the Little Colorado River Valley. A Wind Advisory continues until
6 PM for these areas. Winds elsewhere won't be quite as strong,
but still 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. A 20-40% chance of light
snow showers develops this evening over far northeast AZ from
Window Rock north to four corners, with dry weather elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /413 AM MST/...The last warm day of this stretch with
near normal temperatures expected today. A weak trough will cross the
region today, bringing gusty, southwest winds to the region. Strongest
winds will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
The Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM MST. No changes
were made to the headlines with this update.

The trough has very little moisture with it but just enough to have
some isolated showers develop. Best chances are across northeastern
Arizona this evening with only very light accumulations (less than
an inch) expected.

The next trough to arrive will be on Wednesday. The models have been
back and forth on whether or not this trough will bring any showers
with it. Latest runs have once again backed off a bit and dropped
precipitation chances, pushing them off to the south and east. Best
chances for any shower activity looks to be along and south of the I-
40 corridor. With temperatures falling to around 5-10 degrees below
normal, it will feel much colder. Highs may struggle to break out of
the 30s across the higher terrain. With that in mind, it will
certainly be cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow and snow
levels will fall to 3500-4000 feet. QPF amounts are generally around
0.10" or less. Snow amounts will be around an inch or less through
Wednesday.

The trough exits the region Wednesday night and we see a break
between systems to start off Thursday. With a southwesterly flow
across the region we will actually see warming occur in advance of
the next round of rain and snow. Keeping that in mind, as the next
trough starts to dig down to our west on Thursday, precipitation
may start as snow but we should see a change over to rain as it
starts on Thursday as the warmer air makes its way into the region.
Western areas will see some precipitation start to move in as early
as Thursday morning with progression to the east throughout the day.
Snow levels will start off around 3500-4500 feet but by Thursday
late afternoon/evening they will rise to 6000-7000 feet. By the time
Friday morning rolls around, they will be up around 7000-8000 feet.
Snow levels will start to drop through Friday, especially as some of
the heavier precipitation pushes through the area.

This is the strongest trough we have seen in a while and it
certainly looks like it will have some decent moisture with it.
Confidence has increased to somewhere between moderate and high
on seeing precipitation across the forecast area. However, the
ensembles have continued to show wide variations in QPF and snow
amounts, so confidence still remains low with respect to snow
totals. For now, stayed a bit conservative on amounts, especially
with the warm air having an impact early on in the event. The
heaviest precipitation is expected to fall through the day on
Friday. There is a little bit of instability with this system so
perhaps a rumble or two of thunder will be possible. Additionally,
the pressure gradient tightens up quite a bit on Friday, so
expect another round of gusty winds.

While we are still working on the finer details for this storm, it
looks likely that we will see impacts across the region. Expect
slick roadways and possible impacts to the morning/evening commutes,
especially on Friday.

The trough doesn't fully exit our area until later Saturday. Expect
lingering showers to continue through much of the day, tapering off
from west to east through the afternoon.

Sunday looks to see warmer and drier conditions return as weak
ridging builds into the Desert Southwest. Beyond Sunday, there is
disagreement amongst the models as to whether the ridge holds for a
few days or we see another series of troughs moving through the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...VFR conditions
expected under mid to upper level cloud cover. SW at 15-25 kts
gusting near 35-45 kts today. Strongest winds will be along and NE
of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. Near 06Z, winds will return to 5-15 kts
out of the W-SW.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/18Z through Friday 14/18Z...VFR conditions
will persist outside of brief MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities
from SHRA/SHSN. Precipitation returns, primarily along and south of
I-40, between 12Z Wednesday and 12Z Thursday. Afterwards, another
round of showers will increase west to east, becoming heaviest after
12Z Friday. Westerly winds 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts forecast on
Wednesday, becoming southerly 5-15 kts gusting 15-25 kts on
Thursday. Look for increasing wind speeds Thursday night and Friday,
where gusts could reach 30-40 kts across higher terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Near normal temperatures
forecast for today (Tuesday), dropping to 5-15 degrees below normal
by Wednesday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting near 35-45
mph, this afternoon becoming lighter and more westerly on Wednesday.
Dry conditions expected today, with chances for snow showers
Wednesday afternoon/evening primarily along and south of I-40.

Thursday through Saturday...Rain and snow showers expected Thursday
through Saturday, with the heaviest precipitation forecast for
Friday. Snow accumulation will be mostly above 5500'. Look for south
winds 10-20 mph on Thursday, becoming stronger and more west-
southwest overnight/into Friday across higher terrain. West-
northwest winds 5-15 mph expected on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for AZZ013>017.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/Meola
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff