NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 4:50 AM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 11, 4:50 AM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
450 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue early next week with
multiple low pressure systems impacting the region. Accumulating
snow is likely across northern portions of the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night, and ice accumulations look likely across
the Eastern Piedmont Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another
system is likely Wednesday into Thursday bringing in more
rainfall across the area.Then possibly drying out by this
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 352 AM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Winter Storm Warnings in effect for most of the CWA with
Winter Weather Advisories stretching from far NC to the
Eastern Shore.
- Heavy wet snow is expected across the warning area with Ice
accumulations up to .3" inch across the Eastern Piedmont.
Right now we are experiencing the "calm before the storm". GOES
Nighttime Microphysics is depicting mostly cloudy skies owing to
upper-level clouds streaming across the area ahead of the incoming
system. Temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s this morning
with dew points in the 20s. High pressure centered just north of our
area is maintaining light northeasterly winds. Zonal flow aloft is
still prevailing, but not for long. Flow aloft will gradually shift
to the southwest today and invite in increased moisture across the
region. This increased moisture is just one of the important pieces
going into today's winter event. Another player is a developing area
of low pressure off the Carolina coast along a baroclinic boundary.
As this low lifts northeastward, warmer air aloft will nose its way
across our area from south to north. This will create a tight
gradient of snowfall across the region, with the northern counties
receiving between 6-8" of snowfall before the warm nose reaches
them. Totals drop quickly moving south where central portions of our
area, including the Richmond Metro, are forecast to see 2-4" of
snowfall. There is a narrow band of 1-3" south of the tri-cities,
but little to no accumulation of snow is expected in SE VA and NE
NC. An 850mb jet is forecast to set up across the Carolinas and move
over our SE VA and NE NC counties. This will result in a strong f-
gen band that will likely increase snowfall rates briefly, enhancing
the snowfall total gradient further. With temperatures being on the
warmer side, a wet heavy snow is expected for the duration of the
event.
Snow will eventually end in all counties tonight as the warm air
aloft overtakes all of the area. Despite the strong warm nose, high
pressure to our northeast will maintain the CAD in the piedmont
region. With warmer air aloft and below freezing temperatures at the
surface, freezing rain will be a big concern in the western counties
with between 0.10"-0.25" of ice accumulation possible. Guidance has
trended slightly warmer in the southern counties, so this may lessen
ice accumulation totals in Mecklenburg and Lunenburg.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 AM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Another potential system forms Wednesday giving way to more
precipitation.
Unsettled weather will continue through at least Thursday
morning. Another area of low pressure will approach the region
Wednesday, keeping our area in an extended period of wet
weather. The p-type will be rain as temperatures will remain
above freezing throughout the duration of the next event.
Rainfall totals will likely range from around an inch in the NE
NC and extreme SE VA counties to 1-2" with localized higher
amounts across the remainder of the forecast area. All in all,
dreary, cooler weather is expected through Thursday morning
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary that is progged to move
through the region Thursday afternoon/evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry and cool weather is expected Thursday night through
early Saturday. Another system likely brings widespread rain
back to the region Saturday afternoon through at least midday
Sunday.
- Drying out and turning colder Sunday night into early next
week as high pressure builds in from the west.
The active and unsettled pattern continues late this week into
the upcoming weekend. Thursday begins with strong SW flow aloft,
with a low level jet at ~850 mb of 60+ kt, which should be
enough to scour out the low level cold airmass by aftn (even to
some degree across the piedmont). At the sfc, double barreled
low pressure, one inland across the eastern Great Lakes to the
St Lawrence Valley, and the other along the New England coast,
with a cold front extending SW along the Appalachians. Likely to
categorical PoPs prevail in the morning, but with increasing
Southerly low level flow, the precip will tend to become more
showery in the aftn as the cold front approaches from the west.
Temperatures will be challenging depending on the timing of the
cold front and showers. Across the SE, highs well into the 60s
(possibly near 70F) are expected, but to the NW, highs could
occur late in the day as the winds shift to the WNW with the
potential for some sunshine. If this occurs, highs well into the
50s are likely, but a slower arrival of drier air could keep
enough residual CAD in place with highs only in the 40s. The
cold front finally exits the region Thu evening, with dry
conditions overnight into Friday. The GFS still shows a weak sfc
wave of low pressure passing by Fri morning, but the other
models keep conditions dry so will just keep some clouds Fri
morning across the south. Strong, but transient ~1040 mb surface
high pressure then quickly builds across the region from the
Ohio Valley Friday, then pushes offshore of the northern mid-
Atlantic coast and ridging back into the region as weak CAD sets
up for Saturday. Meanwhile, the next southern stream shortwave
then ejects east from the four corners region late Friday and
Saturday, turning the flow aloft back to the SW, advecting gulf
moisture toward the region and bringing yet another period of
widespread precipitation...this time mainly rain...to the region
Saturday night through early Sunday.
Overrunning moisture ahead of the system will bring more rain
into the area by midday Saturday, with a very strong signal of
rain Sat night into Sunday. Good model agreement between the
deterministic models in drawing gulf moisture into the region
Sat night and Sunday, and the latest 01Z/11 NBM shows ~90%
probability of exceeding 0.10" QPF in 12 hours Sat night/Sunday
morning across the NW 1/2 of the CWA, with 70-80% SE, with a
60-80% probability of at least 0.50" during that same period
over the NW. The 00Z/11 LREF grand ensemble has an average of
1" or more of QPF for most of the CWA N of the VA-NC border as
well. WPC maintains a Marginal ERO day 5 for approximately the
NW 1/2 of the CWA (12Z Sat-12Z Sun). Expect NW portions of the
area having the potential for an additional 1.5 to 2" of rain
from this weekend system. Accordingly, rare categorical PoPs for
an extended forecast have been maintained Sat night and Sunday
morning for much of the area. Highs Sat will only be in the
lower-mid 40s well inland with the CAD wedge hanging on across
the piedmont. Meanwhile, milder 50s to lower 60s are expected in
the SE. As the coastal trough slides inland ahead of the system,
expect the CAD wedge slowly erodes, allowing temperatures
overnight Saturday into Sunday to warm up, especially along the
coast. Highs for now are forecast to low 70s in the SE, with mid
50s NW. Drying out Sunday aftn and night, but looking to turn
much colder for early next week, as colder air pushes in behind
the departing system. Highs Monday are only expected in the
upper 30s/lower 40s N to the mid 40s S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1241 AM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail overnight, with high
clouds and no precipitation forecast before sunrise. Thereafter,
conditions will start to deteriorate from east to west as wintry
precipitation moves into the area. CIGS will gradually lower through
the day. MVFR CIGS and VIS are expected briefly at each terminal as
precip moves in, but will quickly drop to IFR/LIFR. While RIC will
be the first to see precipitation, all terminals will see either
rain or snow starting between 15-18z. ECG will mostly remain out of
the wintry precipitation, but moderate to heavy rain will persist
tomorrow morning through the remainder of the TAF period. PHF and
ORF will see a wintry mix through most of the afternoon before
transitioning to rain tomorrow evening, with a brief period (between
18-21Z) of moderate snow possible at PHF. RIC can expect to see a
plethora of precipitation types during the transition from snow to
rain. Lastly, SBY will see snow through the TAF period, though the
intensity will vary. By tomorrow night, all terminals will
experience OVC CIGS at or below 500ft.
Outlook:
The rain/snow line continues to push N Tue night with a
changeover to all rain likely at all terminals by Wed morning.
Additional rounds of rain are expected Wed into Thu with
MVFR/IFR VIS and IFR/LIFR CIGs likely continuing into Thu.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A series of low pressure systems will impact the region today
through Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night.
- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Currituck
Sound, southern Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and
Atlantic coastal waters.
Early morning analysis shows 1030mb high pressure centered just
north of the local waters. Winds are N to NE 5-10 kt from the Ches
Bay northward, winds are slightly stronger across the southern
waters, generally NE 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas
offshore running 2-4 ft (highest S).
High pressure moves offshore today as low pressure develops along
the central Gulf Coast. Another area of low pressure will deepen
near the Carolina coast this afternoon into tonight which will
sharpen the pressure gradient across the southern half of the area.
NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for the Currituck
Sound, lower Ches Bay, and lower James River by this evening. Winds
farther north are not likely to exceed SCA thresholds in the bay and
adjacent rivers. Winds for the coastal waters will increase to 20-25
kt with gusts to 25-30 kt this evening, spreading northward late
tonight. Waves build to 2-3 ft this afternoon and increase further
to 2-4 ft this evening with the highest waves expected near the
mouth of the bay/CBBT. Seas will also increase from S to N late this
afternoon and especially tonight with seas averaging 6-8 ft S and 4-
6 ft N by sunrise Wednesday. A prolonged period of higher seas will
linger well into the late week period as a series of lows move
through the region. Small Craft headlines have been issued with this
forecast package. Headlines start this afternoon for the Currituck
Sound and from the mouth of the bay southward. The lower Chesapeake
and James River will see SCA conditions by this evening into the
overnight hours. Small craft headlines spread northward through the
evening as seas build. Guidance suggests seas will remain above SCA
thresholds through late week despite a lull in winds Wednesday into
Thursday. For now have coastal SCAs running through 12z/7am Thursday
but these will likely need to be extended in subsequent forecasts. A
strong cold front is forecast to cross the waters late Thursday into
Friday with increasing NW winds and cold advection in its wake.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 10 AM EST Wednesday
for MDZ021>025.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EST
Wednesday for NCZ012.
VA...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 10 AM EST Wednesday
for VAZ099.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EST
Wednesday for VAZ079-081-087>089-092.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for VAZ048-060>062-065>069-080-509>516.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for VAZ064-075>078-517-519-521-522.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM EST
Wednesday for VAZ082-084-086-090-100-523.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for VAZ083-085-518-520.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ632-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Thursday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Thursday for ANZ656-658.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...RMM/NB
MARINE...RHR