Wildfire in Arizona, August 6 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 PM MST Wed Aug 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Very hot weather will continue this week with high
temperatures near monthly August records for some locales today and
Thursday. A low grade monsoon pattern continues with chances of
precipitation Thursday mainly south to southwest of Tucson and in
the White Mountains. Precipitation chances expand to much of the
remainder of southeast Arizona starting Friday. Above normal
temperatures will also remain into next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dangerously hot temperatures continue across southeast Arizona
 peaking through tomorrow. Extreme Heat Warning in effect through
 8 PM Friday evening. Potential for record to near-record high
 temperatures exists for multiple locations.

-Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity expected today
 and Thursday mainly south and southwest of Tucson.
 Storms that do develop may produce gusty outflow winds,
 blowing dust, and brief moderate to heavy rainfall.

-Low grade monsoon pattern continues Friday. Some moisture
 increase this weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
 thunderstorms for most of southeast Arizona into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few isolated thunderstorms have recently developed
in the last hour in Santa Cruz and the central Sky Islands. These
storms are mainly high based and not tall enough to support strong
storms. There is warming in the atmosphere, evident from the 18Z
sounding, that will inhibit storm strength. The best chances for
any shower or thunder will be south and west of Tucson this
afternoon. This will include a few of the Sky Islands and up
towards the White Mountains. Even these storms don't fully
materialize, they will mainly produce virga and have the
potential for strong erratic gusts.

Heat is the main story for the rest of today and through Friday.
Tucson Airport has already tied its daily record as of this
writing; 109F, a 2018 record. Temperatures will continue to climb
another 3-4 degrees across the region. A stray shower will tamp
down the temperatures for a brief moment. High pressure center
will keep our temperatures elevated in the Major to Extreme
HeatRisk category through Friday. Therefore, Extreme Heat Warning
is still in effect through Friday evening.

Temperatures will come down from the peak, but staying above
normal through the weekend into the following week. The high
center will move off to our, getting into a better monsoon
position for moisture and dynamic support. Moisture will spread
across the region to bring daily afternoon slight chances for rain
showers and thunderstorms starting on Friday. Model guidance shows
better potential for stronger storms on Friday because of the
already very hot temperatures, allowing for high instability and
the moisture spreading out more across the region. Thus, it will
give daily chances across the region. Chances will continue
through the weekend and into the following week. The 6-10 and 8-14
day outlook has a 33-40% lean for above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
SCT to locally BKN clouds 10-15k ft AGL with higher clouds 20-25k
ft AGL through the forecast period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible
expected mainly to the south and southwest of KTUS through 07/04Z
including KOLS terminal. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA chances return after
07/18Z. Gusty winds expected in and near -SHRA/-TSRA. Otherwise,
SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts this afternoon and then diminishing
to less than 10 kts after 07/04Z through the end of the forecast
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very hot temperatures all this week, as highs peak
at 8-14 degrees above normal through Thursday. A low grade monsoon
pattern continues through Friday, focused in areas south to
southwest of Tucson and in the White Mountains. A low grade pattern
will continue this weekend but precipitation chances do expand to
most of southeast Arizona. Min RH values areawide will continue
around 8-15 percent through Thursday, then 14-23 percent starting
Friday. Mountain readings climb into the 20-30 percent range
Saturday into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...All-time August record highs including date and
forecast highs for Thursday.
                                             THU FCST
Ajo                 118 on August 28, 2023     112
Organ Pipe Cactus   116 on August  5, 1995     111
Picacho Peak        114 on August 28, 1998     112
Tucson Intl airport 112 on August  1, 1993     112
Safford (town)      110 on August 16, 2024     109
Willcox             108 on August  1, 2020     105
Nogales (town)      107 on August  5, 2023     104
Douglas airport     106 on August  5, 2023     104
Sierra Vista        105 on August  6, 2023     101

DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CITIES THIS WEEK.

DATE                          Aug 07           Aug 08
                            FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        112 108/1995     107 108/2012
AJO                        112 114/2018     107 112/2001
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          111 113/1995     105 113/1995
PICACHO PEAK               112 113/1995     107 110/1995
SAFFORD AG STATION         109 106/2018     107 106/1995
SIERRA VISTA FD            101 101/2018      98  99/2012
TOMBSTONE                  102 103/2018     100 102/1995
WILLCOX                    105 106/2018     102 106/2012

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ501>509-515.

&&

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