Within cool northeasterly surface flow, several upper-level disturbances tracked across central North Carolina from a persistent weak trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley region. Copious amounts of moisture remained from the 5th of August.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Within cool northeasterly surface flow, several upper-level disturbances tracked across central North Carolina from a persistent weak trough of low pressure over the Ohio Valley region. Copious amounts of moisture remained from the 5th of August. A wedge front was also in place along Interstate 95. Several reports of flash flooding were reported over the eastern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, including two fatalities in Nash County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 6:54 AM EST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 754 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure that will extend across the Middle Atlantic this week will be dampened and dammed over the Carolinas by disturbances in very moist, southwesterly flow aloft. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 420 AM Wednesday.. * Flood Watch in effect through midnight Thursday, with the greatest threat of flooding over the Piedmont this morning and over Sandhills and portions of the Coastal Plain this afternoon and evening * Cloudy, wet, and unseasonably cool, with thunderstorms possible especially over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain this afternoon Water vapor satellite data this morning depict a digging shortwave perturbation over IN, which the models indicate will reach the NC Blue Ridge by 12Z Thu. It will reinforce a mean trough that will otherwise edge slowly ewd from the OH and TN Valleys this morning to the cntl and srn Appalachians tonight, with preceding weak, 10-20 meter/12 hr 500 mb height falls over cntl NC tonight. Downstream of the shortwave perturbation and mean trough axis, a series of mid/upr- level disturbances will progress through unseasonably moist swly flow across GA and the Carolinas, where PWs around 2" and in the 80th-90th percentile will be present. The most notable and influential of these features will likely be a convectively- amplified one now over n-cntl GA and the Upstate of SC, which is forecast to progress newd and across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and VA through this evening. Another may result in-situ over the NC Sandhills to Pee Dee region of SC, from convection forecast to develop this afternoon near and immediately poleward of a wedge front. Very slow newd motion of that feature over e-cntl through ern NC, should it indeed develop, would result, amid very weak, ~5 kts of mid-level flow in that region. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will remain over the Middle Atlantic, with unseasonably cool and stable, nely flow directed across most of cntl NC. A quasi-stationary wedge front near I-95 through the Carolinas will remain so today, then collapse sewd and toward the coast tonight. An area of stratiform rain has redeveloped and blossomed over the nrn NC Piedmont during the past few hours, in an area of maximized 925 mb flow, moisture transport, and isentropic ascent atop the wedge front. Hourly rainfall amounts in that regime have steadily increased during that time from one half inch, to in the past hour, one to one and one quarter inches over parts of Durham and Orange Co. While that forcing and area of rain will generally persist, deeper ascent related to the approaching convectively-amplified disturbance will further enhance lift over the Piedmont through early to mid afternoon. There has been a relatively consistent signal for 2-3" inches of rain, with pockets of 3-6" and locally higher amounts, in CAMS and HREF guidance, over the nrn Piedmont. This includes areas hard hit from TC Chantal in early July. Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) over the Piedmont ranges from 1" in recently rain-soaked Stanly Co., and urban areas, to 1.5 to 3" elsewhere. The CAMS and HREF have also depicted a signal for another area of heavy rain nearer the wedge front and instability axis over the Sandhills and adjacent srn-cntl Coastal Plain this afternoon- evening, with similar-valued QPF maxima as those over the Piedmont. While FFG values through the Sandhills and Coastal Plain are higher, generally 3 to 5" in 3 hrs, the convective nature and very slow movement of cells in those areas suggest exceedance of FFG will be attainable, especially in urban areas. While the heaviest rain will likely taper off over the Piedmont late this afternoon-early this evening and through late evening in the Coastal Plain and Sandhills, lift, broadly from the shortwave perturbation digging into the Blue Ridge, and more-focused/mesoscale from lower predictability MCV forcing from convection over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, will favor continued rain and drizzle chances amid a deeply moist environment, and CAD-saturated boundary, layer overnight. Temperatures will be generally persistence ones from Tue, mid-upr 60s over the nrn Piedmont to lwr 80s in the Coastal Plain, followed by lows in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... * Shower chances persist, but heavy rain threat appears lower * Below normal temperatures continue A trough axis will still be situated over the southern Appalachians Thu, with anomalous precipitable water values mainly east of US-1 over the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills. The upper-jet favoring heavy rainfall from Thu is forecast to shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, cool high pressure off the NE US coast will continue to bring northeast flow. We continue to watch a surface trough off the coast of the SE US that NHC is monitoring for tropical depression development. This system has been trending to stay offshore, but it will enhance the cool and moist NE flow over the region. While isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded storms are possible anywhere, the best chance appears along/east of US-1 where WPC still has a marginal excessive rainfall risk. Given the upper-jet is not a player, feeling is that the heavy rain threat is lower compared to Wed. Activity should wane by mid to late evening. Highs will generally be stuck in the 70s with extensive clouds, except low 80s in the far SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... * Cool east to northeast flow continues thru Sunday for below normal temperatures * Daily chances of isolated/scattered showers or storms each day, though a signal for drier conditions over the weekend A persistent east to northeasterly flow will persist and remain in place through the weekend, driven by a combination of cool high pressure from the Mid-Atlantic and NE US coast, as well as a potential developing tropical system that NHC is monitoring off the Carolina coast Fri into Sat. Speaking of that tropical system that NHC indicates a 40-percent chance of tropical development, the trend in the ensemble and deterministic guidance has been to keep the system offshore of NC as it takes a northerly to northeasterly track into the upcoming weekend. However, there will be a somewhat baggy mid-level trough over the SE US to favor diurnally-driven shower/storm chances. A deeper dive into the guidance does show some drier air filtering in by Sat, such that the weekend could be drier than currently advertised. We will see if this trend continues. The best chances for showers appear Fri with the potential tropical system nearby. From Sun into Tue, the baggy trough appears to be ill-defined, replaced by ridging slowly building in from the southwest Atlantic. Storm chances appear mainly diurnally driven and isolated to scattered in nature at this point. Temperatures should remain below seasonal normals through Sun in the upper 70s to mid 80s. More typical highs in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s, along with higher humidity, is forecast Mon-Tue. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 740 AM Wednesday... Rain and mostly IFR-MVFR restrictions, lowest over the Piedmont, will become incresingly-wideaspread this morning, as lift increases ahead of a mid/upr-level disturbance approaching from SC. The character of the precipitation will become more-showery/convective, with an associated chance of thunder, near a surface front and instability axis at FAY and perhaps RDU and RWI by this afternoon. Ceilings will probably lower into LIFR-IFR range after dark and be accompanied by lingering areas of light rain and drizzle through Thu morning. Outlook: Prolonged nely flow will persist through at least Sat, during which time flight restrictions mostly from ceilings will be lowest each night-morning, with diurnal improvement to MVFR or low VFR each afternoon. A chance of rain/showers will also exist throughout the forecast period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ007>010-021>027- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 504 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 NCZ011-028-071200- Halifax-Edgecombe- 504 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a Slight, level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rain through tonight, which means scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a Marginal, level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rain Thursday through Friday, which means isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ043-078-089-071200- Wilson-Wayne-Sampson- 504 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a Marginal, level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rain Thursday through Friday, which means isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ021-022-038-071200- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson- 504 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ007>010-023>027-039>042-073>077-083>086-088-071200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash- Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett- Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- 504 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a Marginal, level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rain Thursday, which means isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:01 UTC.
7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was reported near the intersection of West Chatham and Fallsworth Drive. The road was impassable.
Crabtree Creek at Wake Forest Road exceeded minor flood stage.
The road was closed due to water rushing across Olive Chapel Road in Apex.
Several roads were flooded in the Spring Hope area. Several cars were also stalled in flood waters.
The road was washed out near the intersection of Goldston Carbonton Road and Alton Kind Road.
Two people died after their vehicle was swept off North Carolina Highway 581 and into a ravine or ditch that was overflowing with fast moving flood waters.
Osage drive was flooded and impassable.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Flood, Nash | 2025-08-06 | 55 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
| Flash Flood, Nash | 2025-08-06 | 24 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1280619, 1280620, 1280621, 1280624, 1280625, 1280452, 1280626.