High Wind in Alaska, September 26, 2025

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
619 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...

Key Points:
- A hurricane-force area of low pressure makes landfall this
  afternoon near Sitka.
- Wind gusts over land areas upwards of 40 to 60+ mph are
  expected today.
- Moderate to heavy rain will track north through the panhandle
  today.

Details: We are tracking a very strong low pressure system that will
impact the panhandle today. As of 6AM, measured wind speeds near the
low have been storm force with sustained around 50 kts and gusts
over 60 kt. This low will continue to strengthen as it moves
north, so hurricane force winds (64+ kts) are expected on the
southeastern quadrant of the low.

The track of the low has been updated. This low will track north
through the eastern gulf and make landfall near Sitka. Still
expecting high wind gusts upwards of 60 mph for the southern half of
the panhandle beginning later this morning and lasting through the
afternoon. For those along Icy Strait, wind gusts upwards of 40 to
50 mph are likely. That being said, there is some concern for gusts
up to 60 mph but confidence was not high enough to issue a High Wind
Warning. This will be watched closely today and updates will be sent
if needed.

In addition to the wind, moderate to heavy rain will move through
the panhandle. Upwards of 1 to 2 inches total over the next 24 hours
but hourly rates of 0.10 to 0.20 are possible in the heavier rain
showers.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...
Key Messages:
- Hurricane force low diminishes and lifts inland into BC
- Broad multi vortex low sets up over the gulf with near gale force
  winds for north and northeastern coastal waters Saturday night into
  Sunday
- Light to moderate rain with front moving impacting the panhandle
  Saturday to  night into Sunday
- Diminishing rain chances with potential break by early next week

To start the long term forecast period, the hurricane force low
impacting the panhandle Friday will continue moving inland and
should have lifted into British Columbia by early Saturday morning.
Winds across the inner channels will subsequently slacken with its
departure. The pattern over southeast Alaska will remain active
through the weekend however. Moving into the gulf from the west, a
broad low pressure circulation will setup with multiple embedded
vortices. One of the stronger vortices will rotate around and
bring a near gale force front to the outer coastal waters late
Saturday into Sunday. Due to the stalled nature of the overall
circulation, these enhanced winds are expected to largely remain
constrained to gulf coastal waters. With this stronger front, a
band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will also push into the
northeast gulf coast with lighter rain spreading over the rest of
the panhandle.

Through Sunday, the multiple vortices should consolidate into a
single circulation before gradually weakening as the feature becomes
vertically stacked with an upper level trough. At the same time,
high pressure will begin to develop over interior Alaska and the
Yukon Territory. This combined with the weakening low in the gulf
will lead to precipitation retreating away from the northern
panhandle to start next week. For the southern panhandle, some
model discrepancy on the rate of weakening and steering flow for
the low in the gulf could lead to showers lasting into Tuesday.
Looking a bit further ahead, a transient ridge may give the
panhandle a break from any windy and wet weather through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 12z Saturday/...
A hurricane force low approaching the panhandle will push onshore
near to north of Sitka this afternoon. Very strong winds and LLWS
expected through this evening, from Cross Sound east through Icy
Strait towards Juneau and south across the central and southern
panhandle. Winds of 25 to 40 kts with gusts 50 to 65 kts through
the early evening hours, tapering off through the overnight hours.
North of the low track, including PAYA, PAGY and PAHN, some gusty
winds and wind shear expected today, but much less central and
southern TAF sites. Generally MVFR flight conditions developing
today and continuing behind the low passage tonight. Thunderstorms
are also possible this afternoon as the low and front pass
through, generally for PASI and on south, however, confidence on
location and timing not high enough to include into the TAF
forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...

Outer Waters: A dangerously strong hurricane force low, currently
located near 54.5 N 138 W, around 148 nautical miles SW of Port
Alexander, will travel NE towards central Baranof Island, near
Sitka, making landfall through Thursday afternoon. Buoy 46184 in
the east-central Gulf recently reported sustained winds up to
50kts with gusts up to 60kts on the backside of the low as it
passed. This low will continue to deepen through early Friday
morning, minimizing near 967 mb and take on warm core
characteristics, with highest wind speeds expected across the
southern and eastern quadrants. Minor changes to overnight
forecast, slowing the low down slightly, and shifting the track
northward about 20NM towards Sitka. However, still anticipating
southern coastal areas will see hurricane force sustained winds to
develop 80 nautical miles SW of Port Alexander by 10 AM and move
into the entrance of southern Chatham Strait and Sumner Strait by
noon Friday. As this low develops and moves northeast, expect to
see seas increase to around 35 ft, particularly at the nexus and
just south of the highest wind speeds.

Inner Channels: As the aforementioned low moves inland, expect to
see a rapid shift in wind direction from northeasterly and
easterly, to southerly and southwesterly storm force winds with up
to hurricane force gusts (exceeding 65 knots) in the afternoon.
Along with the particularly strong storm force winds in Clarence
Strait, Sumner Strait, southern Chatham Strait, and gusts to storm
force in Frederick Sound and Stephens Passage, there is a
northerly component to this system in Lynn Canal. Tight gradients
from this strong system is expected to bring up wind speeds in
Lynn Canal to near gale, with Point Couverden likely to exceed
gale force due to a tip jet in the afternoon.

Please note, while strong winds are common during the fall time
in southeast Alaska, this upcoming system is out of the ordinary.
Mariners should take extreme caution if choosing to venture out
through Friday, maritime travel is not recommended.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ321-322-324-325-327.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM AKDT this
     evening for AKZ323-324.
     Strong Wind this evening for AKZ323-326-330-332.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this
     evening for AKZ326-327-329.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330-
     332.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ328.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
     Storm Warning for PKZ033-035.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-032-034-643-644-663-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-053-651-652-671-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NC/NM

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