Rip Current in Florida, September 26, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast near and
  north of I-4 this afternoon and evening. High coverage of
  showers and storms continues Saturday.

- There continues to be a high chance (90%) for AL94 to develop
  into a tropical system over the next couple of days.

- There is increasing confidence in deteriorating marine and
  coastal conditions along the east central Florida coast and
  across the local waters from AL94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Current-Tonight... A broken band of showers and storms has
developed across northeast Florida this afternoon, extending as
far southward as Hillsborough county. While models have not
initialized this activity very well, expecting it to continue a
east-northeast trend through the afternoon, approaching Lake
county. While activity may remain more scattered across the south,
have nudged up PoPs (60%) near and north of I-4, particularly
near the coastal I-95 corridor. Here, CAMs are suggesting an
active late afternoon and evening as convection bubbles along a
slow east coast sea breeze. Surface moisture, modest shear, and
500mb temps near normal could support a few strong storms along
boundary collisions this afternoon. Primary storm hazards include
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, small hail,
and locally heavy rainfall. Showers and storms may linger a bit
beyond sunset as they push offshore. A few additional showers
could brush the Treasure Coast tonight, but otherwise dry through
the overnight period. Low temperatures range the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Monday...Shifting eyes towards the tropics, an area of low
pressure (currently AL94) is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend. Ensemble consensus shows the tropical
system paralleling the Florida coastline, remaining offshore east
central Florida. At this time, primary concerns for the local area
remain marine and surf impacts. Spectral guidance for NOAA buoy
41009, 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, suggests building long period
swells and increasing surf first arriving across the coastal waters
late Sunday night into early Monday morning. By Monday afternoon,
models further suggests wave energy and seas becoming reinforced as
swells arrive from distant Hurricane Humberto. In summary,
deteriorating marine and coastal conditions are expected early next
week. A high risk of rip currents will be present at all area
beaches in addition to rough surf. Will need to monitor the
potential for a High Surf Advisory by Monday for large breaking
waves of 6-8 ft. Minor coastal erosion will be possible at times
of high tide, prolonged over a period of several tide cycles.
Beyond coastal impacts, breezy winds are forecast on Sunday
continuing Monday as the system passes offshore.

Looking beyond the tropics, a mid-level trough broadens across the
southeast U.S. this weekend. At the surface, a cold front slides
towards northeast Florida Saturday before stalling across central
Florida by Sunday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front and waves
of energy aloft should support medium to high rain chances on
Saturday (50-70%). Strong storms remain in play in the afternoon and
evening, and primary storm hazards include occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and localized rainfall
accumulations of 1-3". By Sunday, the highest coverage of showers
and storms shifts to the coastal counties (50-60%). A saturated
tropical profile should generally limit lightning potential.
However, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall remain forecast even
in showers. Uncertainty exists in rain chances for Monday, and have
continued to hedge towards the NBM showing scattered chances (30-
50%). High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday will
spread the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday (modified previous)... Mid-level low pressure
weakens and lingers across the southeast U.S. At the surface, a
stalled boundary finally washes out across Florida mid week. Drier
air wraps around the south side of the low, keeping PoPs below
normal Tuesday through Thursday (20 to 40 percent). Stuck with the
NBM through the extended period as a good middle ground for now due
to some minor discrepancies between major global models on timing
relative to the return of moisture to the peninsula. Storm
development through the extended period cannot be ruled out, with
lightning, gusty winds, and brief downpours likely the main concerns
with any activity. The wind forecast becomes tricky depending on how
the tropical system tracks in the extended period. For now, breezy
conditions are forecast through Tuesday, but should the system slow
or stall near the Carolina coast, a tight pressure gradient could
keep breezy conditions locally through mid week. Lingering coastal
concerns will also need to be monitored through the extended period
due to higher seas and long period swells. Temperatures are forecast
to cool through the period, starting in the upper 80s to low 90s on
Tuesday and falling into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Lows are
forecast to generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

A cold front will slowly approach east central Florida late this
week into the weekend, resulting in increasing rain and storm
chances across the local Atlantic waters. Light southwesterly flow
becomes more onshore as the east coast sea breeze develops each
afternoon through Saturday, with shower and storm activity
forecast to move offshore into the overnight hours. Seas remain
generally between 2 to 3 feet today into Saturday, with generally
favorable boating conditions anticipated outside of shower and
storm activity.

Boating conditions begin to deteriorate across the local Atlantic
waters starting on Sunday as a tropical disturbance (AL94) moves
uncomfortably close to the local waters. Winds shift to out of the
northeast on Sunday and increase to 15 to 20 knots, backing to out
of the north at 15 to 25 knots on Monday as AL94 moves northward
parallel to Florida. Increasing seas and periods are anticipated
across the local waters as a result of AL94, leading to dangerous
boating conditions across the waters. Seas are forecast to increase
to 4 to 8 feet across the nearshore waters and 8 to 11 feet across
the offshore waters Sunday into Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are also forecast to persist across the local
waters through late weekend and into early next week.

Lingering seas up to 11 feet are anticipated to continue into
Tuesday as the tropical system moves farther away from Florida, with
a slow recovery of seas anticipated through the extended period.
Lower rain and storm chances will be possible as drier air moves in
across the area, with north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots
forecast through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

VFR forecast, outside of TSRA impacts. Latest guidance, along with
radar/satellite trends, give enough confidence to include TSRA
TEMPOs at some northern sites (ISM/MCO/SFB/DAB/TIX) thru 00z-01z.
IFR CIG/VIS is a possibility, along with wind gusts 30+ kt where
TSRA occurs. The highest coverage looks to be MCO to DAB as
activity shifts toward the east coast (potentially as far south as
MLB) before dissipating after 03z.

Light and variable winds return overnight with light westerly flow
Sat. backing to the ESE along the coast after 15z. TSRA is in the
forecast again, mainly after 18z Sat., but confidence is low in
timing/location for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  88  73  86 /  50  60  60  60
MCO  74  91  75  89 /  40  70  40  60
MLB  74  88  75  86 /  40  50  60  60
VRB  74  90  75  88 /  30  50  60  60
LEE  74  88  73  89 /  30  70  30  50
SFB  74  90  74  88 /  50  70  40  60
ORL  75  91  75  88 /  40  70  40  60
FPR  73  90  74  87 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Schaper