Heavy Snow in Alaska, January 9, 2025

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 PM AKST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Another storm force front
is bering down on the panhandle for late Wednesday into Thursday.
This is the second such storm this week and it will be bringing
another round of rain, wind, and warmer temperatures to most of
the panhandle.

The overall story for this system has not changed all that much
from yesterday. Winds and rain will be increasing panhandle wide
late tonight as the system moves in. The highest winds are
expected along the outer coast and southern inner channels
Thursday morning with gusts reaching into the 50 mph range. Not
expecting any frequent gusts to 60 or more, but I can not
completely rule out an isolated gust or two to that level.

This system does have an atmospheric river associated with it,
however the front is moving through rather quickly so the heavier
precip will not linger over any area for an extended period of
time (less then 24 hours for most areas). As such total rainfall
through Thursday night will be in the 1 to 3 inch range with the
northern half of the panhandle expected to get the higher totals.
Freezing levels are rather high right now (2000 to 3000 ft) and
are expected to rise higher (up to 4000 to 5000 ft) Thursday so
precip type for low elevations will be rain and some additional
snowmelt may contribute more runoff. The only place that will see
snow is the higher elevations of the Klondike Highway where a
winter storm warning remains in place.

Winds and rain are expected to start to diminishing Thursday
night as the main front moves into Canada and post-frontal onshore
flow with showers begin.

.LONG TERM...A period of active weather continues for the panhandle
through next week. After the front moves through Thursday, a brief
lull is expected before another front arrives Saturday. For this
Saturday system, a low moves northeast along the Aleutian Islands,
into the northern gulf. Yakutat and the northern panhandle will
have the heaviest and highest precipitation amounts. Winds in the
gulf will likely reach gale force changing to strong breezes as the
low weakens. The far northern areas may see strong winds with a
tightening pressure gradient. There is some uncertainty for where
the low will be located for this system. Winds may be stronger in
northern areas if the low moves farther east, closer to the
panhandle. This system will move quickly dissipating Saturday night.

A potentially stronger system will then reach the panhandle Sunday.
Gale force winds are expected throughout the gulf and along the
coast. Areas of storm force winds possible for marine areas.
Precipitation this time will be less localized with widespread
moderate rain with times heavy rain possible. With this system,
there are indications of IVT values reaching 500+.This show that
there is plenty of moisture heading toward the panhandle increasing
QPF amounts. We will continue to monitor each of these systems as
they head toward the gulf. This active weather pattern will continue
well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions across the panhandle continue to persist
from VFR to MVFR with some pockets of IFR CIGs around the Yakutat
area. Conditions are expected to deteriorate later tonight and
into the early morning hours tomorrow as the low and associated
front move closer to the panhandle. CIGs and VIS are expected to
decrease with incoming clouds and precipitation. Winds at the
surface and aloft are expected to come up as the system moves
closer increasing the potential for LLWS as well as turbulence and
icing. AAWU forecast graphics highlight this potential as we head
into the evening and overnight hours. Conditions look to improve
slightly as we head towards the latter half of the TAF period but
still look less than favorable.

&&

.MARINE...Wide spread gales for the gulf waters and southern inner
channels are the main concern with the next front coming in for
late tonight and Thursday. Some area of the northern gulf could
even see min storm force late tonight. Meanwhile the northern
inner channels will mainly see 25 to 30 kt winds for the most
part. Highest winds are expected mainly tonight into Thursday
before gradually diminishing. Seas in the gulf will also be rather
high with wave height possibly reaching 20 to 30 ft at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Another atmospheric river will be taking aim at the
panhandle Thursday. However it will not stick around as the main
axis of the heavier precip will swing through the panhandle late
tonight to Thursday midday (so a duration of less then 24 hours
for most areas). That fast movement is the main limiting factor on
how much rainfall various areas will receive this time around and
chances of areas breaking 24 hour return intervals of 2 years or
greater is less then 5 % for most areas. Still total rainfall is
expected to range around 1 to 3 inches through Thursday night with
the higher totals expected across the northern half of the
panhandle. Freezing levels will also be increasing to around 4000
to 5000 ft Thursday which could add more snowmelt to area drainage
basins. With all that, we are still not expecting any flooding at
the current time though we can not rule out rapid rises to near
or over bankfull in smaller drainage basins or any localized
flooding from blocked storm drains and ditches.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST
     Thursday for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Thursday
     afternoon for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-662>664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ033-034-036-641>644-651-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-035-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL

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