On the night of January 14th, a complex low centered near Shelikof Strait pushed a frontal system up across the Kenai Peninsula. A moderate band of snowfall resulted, which stalled over the southwestern portion of the peninsula for several hours.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
On the night of January 14th, a complex low centered near Shelikof Strait pushed a frontal system up across the Kenai Peninsula. A moderate band of snowfall resulted, which stalled over the southwestern portion of the peninsula for several hours. Homer proper saw 0.49 in of precipitation that mostly fell as snow, but accumulations were low due to warmer temperatures (32 to 34F). However, the Homer Bluffs, which are higher in elevation, had colder air and thus, higher snow ratios. Over a foot of snow fell across the Homer Bluffs between 11 PM AKST Jan 14th and 7 AM AKST Jan 15th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 4:21 PM AKST, 6 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 421 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday afternoon)... Two storms impact Southcentral Alaska from tonight through Wednesday, and again from Thursday evening through Friday, with spells of quieter weather in between. Our current spell of quieter weather is coming to an end as an occluding low approaches from the Southwest. Kodiak and parts of Kachemak Bay are already beginning to see rain and snow from this storm, with precipitation expected to move into Kenai Peninsula and the north Gulf coast from the rest of tonight through tomorrow. Confidence is moderate with precipitation and snow amounts. Models continue to show some differences with where the plume of moisture will be directed, leading to uncertainty. However, there are some aspects of the forecast we have higher confidence in. First, we continue to expect the highest precipitation/snow amounts along Eastern Kenai Peninsula, with about 4-8 inches of snow in the Moose Pass to Seward corridor and in the Whittier and Portage Valley area. Secondly, models are trending towards a more southerly track with the upper trough, leading to a lower likelihood of snow for interior locations from about Anchorage and north. Finally, confidence is high that with colder temperatures in place, most locations outside of Kodiak Island will see precipitation fall as snow. By Wednesday afternoon, much of the precipitation will come to an end. Then, attention shifts towards gusty offshore winds as a low near Yakutat tightens surface pressure gradients. Without good cold air advection, winds may be gusty but shouldn't be too much higher than about 25-35 mph, even at favored gap wind locations like Seward and Whittier. Drier conditions and clearer skies persist through Thursday afternoon as a ridge moves through. Then, by Thursday afternoon, the front of a Bering Sea storm will move into Southcentral, advecting warmer air and moisture in southerly flow. For now, most of the precipitation looks to be focused along the coast, where temperatures climbing into the mid to high 30s will likely bring rain to some locations. For interior locations, strong winds aloft may lead to downsloping, reducing precipitation chances for at least the early part of Friday. -Chen && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Tuesday through Thursday)... A fast moving, weak low continues to bring light rain and snow to the Alaska Peninsula and light snow across the Bristol Bay region. Additional snow accumulations are expected to be no more than a trace to a couple inches for areas of Bristol Bay from Dillingham eastward toward Koliganek. Gusty northwest winds from 30 to 40 mph on the backside of the low are expected to continue through this evening for the AKPen before the low moves into the western Gulf. A ridge of high pressure across the Aleutians today will continue to shift eastward over southwest Alaska for Thursday, bringing slightly higher temperature and clear skies ahead of the next system. Further west, a strong Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians tonight, bringing gale and storm force winds for the western and central Aleutians through Wednesday as the front moves northeastward. Wind gusts through the central Aleutian gaps are forecasted to range from 50 to 60 knots and persist into Thursday morning. As the front lifts northwards into the Bering Sea by Thursday afternoon, a large swath of gale force winds are expected from the Pribilof Islands to Nunivak Island as well as much of the Southwestern Alaskan coast. The lifting front will also bring strong southeasterly gradient-driven winds through Kamishak Gap, bringing gale to storm force wind gusts to areas such as Iliamna and Koliganek. Precipitation beginning tomorrow morning as snow and a rain/snow mix will switch quickly to all rain by the afternoon hours for the Western Aleutians. Precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening in the Central Aleutians as snow will change to rain by the late evening hours. A brief period of accumulating snow is likely in the Pribilof Islands early Thursday morning before switching to a rain/snow mix and then rain Thursday afternoon. As precipitation reaches southwest Alaska by Thursday evening, strong southeasterly flow should keep typically downsloped regions relatively dry with the heaviest precipitation falling in higher elevations and in the Kuskokwim Delta, mainly west of Bethel. Temperatures are expected to remain cold enough for these regions to see accumulating snow through Friday morning before switching to a possible rain/snow mix as precipitation tapers off. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... Starting Thursday, a high amplitude weather pattern will push in across the state with upper level ridging extending from the Gulf of Alaska through the interior and up to the Bering Straight. This feature will slowly shift eastward through the long term forecast period being pushed by a broad upper level trough moving from the Aleutians to the Arctic through the Bering Sea. As the system traverses northward, gale-force gusts and moderate snow transitioning to rain are expected for Southwest Alaska from Thursday through Saturday. Southerly onshore flow will bring moderately strong wind and precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians Thursday before progressing eastward to the Alaska Peninsula on Friday and finally across the Southcentral coast through the weekend. Shortwaves moving through the flow will enhance rains along coastal locations, with locally heavy snow over higher elevations from the Alaska Peninsula to Prince William Sound. Areas of snow in leeward locations like the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su are possible at the end of the forecast period, but downsloping will likely limit significant accumulation. A new system from the North Pacific will bring another round of increased winds and precipitation to the Western and Central Aleutians beginning Sunday morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist through much of the TAF period. Cloud cover will move in this afternoon and stay above 5000 ft. There is a slight chance for light snow Wednesday afternoon, though some uncertainty remains. Snow accumulation would be less than an inch. &&
1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A public report from IRIS measured 15 inches of snow at Fritz Creek on the Homer Bluffs. Additionally, 12 inches of snow was reported at Diamond Ridge on the Bluffs via social media.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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