Heavy Snow and High Wind in Alaska, February 26, 2025

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2025

.SHORT TERM...A developing near storm force low will move into
the central gulf overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be
the impetus for increasing winds as well as moderate to heavy
precipitation overspreading the panhandle through the middle of
the week.

For the southern panhandle, winds will continue to ramp up out of
the southeast tonight with gale force winds pushing into Clarence.
With the track of the low and orientation of the wind field,
unsheltered areas open to SE winds will be the most at risk along
the outer coast starting starting Wednesday morning. Moderate to
heavy precipitation will spread northward and continue through the
day Wednesday. While a majority of the panhandle can expect rain,
the Haines and Klondike Highways near the border with Canada are
expected to stay cold enough to have significant snow
accumulation. For the Haines Highway, temperatures are expected to
rise enough to have very wet snow and switch to more rain than
snow by Wednesday evening. For the Klondike Highway, even with
rising snow levels, near White Pass precipitation is expected to
remain straight snow.

By late tomorrow night this system will have begun to weaken and
lift northward towards the north central coast, west of Yakutat,
though gale force winds are expected to persist late into the
night Wednesday for the northern gulf waters. Onshore flow will
persist bringing continued showers to the panhandle Wednesday
night and into Thursday as winds begin to slacken. For more on
what to expect later in the week, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...For the mid-range, the storm that will impact the
region at the end of the week is currently undergoing explosive
cyclogenesis near 37N 177E as defined by a 1mb drop in surface
pressure for 24 hours. This growth is supported by surface
baroclinic instability and divergence aloft from the stout 100+ knot
jet, with the Ocean Prediction Center indicating developing
hurricane force winds. As this storm lifts into the gulf, it will
lose support from dynamics aloft and weaken. However, expecting
impressive swell to impact most of the gulf coast from Kayak Island
to Dixon Entrance for Friday into Saturday from a wide dynamic
southwest fetch. Southwest swell at 17 to 21ft / 18 to 22 seconds is
not out of the question. Wave guidance typically does not perform
well with the characteristics of the developing low; models likely
under doing significant wave heights. The current forecast tries to
reflect this discrepancy. For mariners operating near the coast,
caution is advised as the heights given above are for deep water and
do not reflect the impacts of the new moon cycle's ebbing tide and
shoaling as this swell group breaks on reefs and the coast. Areas
exposed to southwest swell like Cross Sound and Cape Edgecumbe could
see 30 to 40 ft breaking waves, reminding this meteorologist of the
condition’s surfers faced at the most recent Eddie big wave
international surf tournament…

Regarding wind, due to the weakening low and the center remaining in
the western gulf, current forecast reflects gale force southeasterly
winds for most coastal zones and strong breezes for some inner
channels by early Friday morning. With that said, easterly severe
gales are likely for Cape Suckling/Kayak Island with developing
fresh easterly seas riding on top the southwest swell. Will have to
monitor the potential for a secondary low development near Prince of
Wales along the frontal triple point Saturday which could help
strengthen and reinforce surface winds.

Moderate to heavy rainfall will also move across the region Friday
into Saturday but 24 hour amounts should not be as high as Wednesday
given the lack of IVT duration and magnitude; expect 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall in 24 hours, by and large.

&&

.AVIATION...As one storm exited and before the next one arrives,
today has been an overall break day. Some brief times of MVFR due to
CIGs or lowered VIS due to a passing heavier shower, but overall, a
break before the next low approaches from the south.

Ceilings and visibility are expected to drop again as the next
system moves in tonight, with lowered conditions lasting well into
Wednesday. This next low will bring LLWS and lowered CIG and VIS due
to rain. A big aviation concern tonight is wind shear stretching
from Dixon Entrance to the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau.
The wind shear is expected to start up later tonight, with wind
speeds of 35 to 45kts at 2000ft, with the highest of the wind speeds
to affect the southern panhandle and along the coastline as the next
front moves in.

Improvement will start to creep in from the south Thursday morning
so for now, we are expected lowered aviation weather conditions
beginning tonight and lasting well into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Gulf: As of Tuesday afternoon Buoy 84 was at 7ft 13s from the
southwest. As a near storm force low lifts into the region
tonight expect a minimum of gale force southerly wind along the
coast, with severe gales for Dixon Entrance. Associated with these
high winds will be southerly fresh seas 19 to 26 ft. Expect a
short period of storm force easterly winds out of Cross Sound.

Inner Channels: Winds escalate Tuesday evening, with Clarence Strait
seeing southerly severe gales by early Wednesday morning. Most inner
channels will see at least strong breezes, with easterly winds
coming out of Taku into Icy Strait. Areas near Pt. Couverden and
Taku Inlet are likely to see near-gales.

Strong Breezes: 22-27 knots Near-gales: 28 to 33 knots Gales: 34 to
40 knots Severe gales: 41 to 47 knots Storm force: 48 to 55 knots

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ317-322.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon Wednesday to midnight AKST
     Wednesday night for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon
     for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for AKZ327.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ328.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ330-
     332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034>036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-032-033-053.

&&

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...AP

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1157 PM AKST Tue Feb 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Metlakatla          55.10N 131.58W
02/25/2025  M75 MPH          Prince of Wales-HydAK   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW4906 Yellow Hill Summit.

&&