Lightning Strike in Alabama, April 2, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
559 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Through the day today, mid level ridging will continue to amplify
to our south. The amplifying ridge will work as the key feature
dictating our severe weather and heavy rainfall chances through
the end of the weak as it an approaching cold front battles for
dominance. As the high pressure builds, a deep low pressure
system will eject NE into the Great Lakes region through the day.
The stout trough will collide with the amplifying ridge just to
our NW. The collision will be marked by a tight pressure gradient
yielding intense gradient winds at the surface. Strong SSE flow
around the high and up along the stalled cold front to our NW will
persist through out the day. The tight pressure gradient will
support sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with winds gusts of 30-35 MPH
possible. Winds will peak in the afternoon with elevated
locations having potential for locally higher gusts. For this
reason, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 1AM.

The strong southerly flow will quickly usher in a warm and moist
air mass. Dew points that are currently sitting near 50 degrees
will rise into the mid to high 60s by mid morning. Temperatures
will have a similar rebound with near record highs possible this
afternoon. Even with significant cloud cover forecast due to
proximity to the frontal boundary, highs are forecast to be in the
mid 80s. Nearly all model guidance keep max temps below record
highs (86 at both MSL and HSV) however any break in the cloud
cover earlier in the day could work to make up the difference.
Winds will decrease slightly after sunset giving way to a low
chance for severe weather from 6-12Z on Thursday. While the short
term below does a good job discussing why confidence in severe
weather is low, it should be noted that the strong southerly flow
throughout the day and nearby boundary will leave the environment
primed for all severe hazards should forcing make it further SE
than currently forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Morning update:
SPC has again clipped NW AL in an Enhanced Risk for severe
weather. This is due to the very favorable environment that will
be in place come Wednesday evening. 0Z and 6Z guidance remains
unresolved on the SE extent of forcing with about 1/3 of the CAMs
clipping NW AL with storms tonight. We will be closely monitoring
this trend throughout the day. Should forcing be present in NW AL
to trigger storms, all hazards will be possible including hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, and flooding.

Previous discussion:
By Wednesday evening, widespread strong to severe thunderstorms
will be ongoing along and near the aforementioned cold front
draped across portions of Arkansas, western Tennessee, and
Kentucky to our northwest. This feature will attempt to push south
during the evening hours and overnight, but its progress will be
slowed/stopped by the stronger ridge of high pressure that will be
well established across the Deep South. As a result, trends
continue to show convection having a hard time making into this
far south and east into the Tennessee Valley. For this reason, our
confidence in any severe weather or heavy rainfall threat remains
very low -- as the forcing will remain northwest of the area. We
will still continue to message the low probability for a
conditional severe threat during portions of the evening and
overnight hours, but it may be a struggle to generate any
convection/precipitation at all -- let alone severe weather.

A similar pattern will continue Thursday, Thursday night, and
Friday, with the ridge winning out and the boundary remaining
stalled to our northwest (or even retreating further north).
Should this trend be realized, it would significantly limit PoPs
and the threat for any strong/severe storms. Daytime highs in the
low to mid 80s will be common both days due to the mainly dry
conditions. Have maintained low to medium (20-40%) PoPs along and
west of I-65, but this is a very conditional threat. Thus,
confidence in severe weather is low at this time and trends will
need to be monitored in future forecast updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

By Saturday and Sunday, a deepening upper-low ejecting from the
Great Basin onto the Southern Plains will attempt to phase with
another trough over the Great Lakes, finally sending the cold
front through the Tennessee Valley during a Saturday night into
Sunday timeframe. There remains a wider range of possibilities
with the evolution of parent storm system and the timing of the
front which will have an impact on the magnitude of any potential
severe weather threat this weekend. Still, guidance is honing in
on some favorable thermodynamics to support the potential for
strong to severe storms sometime during this timeframe. This,
combined with better shear and forcing would support an
environment capable of all modes of severe weather -- and this is
something that we'll have to watch closely as we draw closer to
this event. A cooler/drier air mass will filter into the region
behind the front as highs will notably drop back into the upper
50s to lower 60s on Monday. A much cooler day is forecast Monday
and Tuesday (highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s) -- and
potentially a widespread frost and/or light freeze Monday night
and Tuesday night of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low MVFR ceiling will linger through around 18Z. As the sun rises,
winds will quickly pick up from the south with gusts just over
30KTs possible through the TAF period. This evening an
approaching front will stall to our NW prompting a period of wind
shear and lower MVFR ceilings at both terminals from 0-12Z. MSL
has low (20-30%) chances of storms from 6-12Z tonight. This was
left out of the TAF due to low confidence at this time and will be
reassessed at later TAF issuances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Moderate and/or High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the Tennessee Valley in
a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures for April 9th.
Temperatures have a good chance of falling into the 30 to 36
degree F range during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RAD