NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 11:48 AM MST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 25, 11:48 AM MST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1148 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds today, especially over the higher elevations and
the Central Wind Corridor. High Wind Warnings are in effect
Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Gusts of at least 50
mph, with 60 to 70 mph possible.
- Widespread strong winds by Monday, with wind gusts over 30 mph
at most locations, with many places having maximum wind gusts
above 40 mph.
- Snow moves into western Wyoming by Monday morning. Snow
spreads eastward through the evening. Most locations receive
snow through end of Tuesday. Highest accumulations for
mountains, with lesser accumulations for lower elevations.
Strong winds bring possible blowing snow to locations.
- Cold Tuesday behind the cold front, with most places
forecasted to have a high temperature in the 20s. A quick
warm up, though, for the latter part of the workweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024
A potent storm is on our doorstep. Starting with today, winds are
the main story. A trough dropping from down from the Pacific
Northwest is continuing to tighten the pressure gradient. While not
fully here yet (that will be for Monday), many locations will begin
to feel it's influence. The higher elevations and the Central Wind
Corridor from about Rock Springs to Casper will be the windiest
today. High Wind Warnings are in effect this afternoon, continuing
though Monday evening. Gusts 50 to 70 mph will be common in those
highlighted areas. Outside the warning, gusts to near 30 mph are
possible today. Sweetwater County may see gusts up to 40 mph.
Otherwise today, the warm temperatures continue, with highs similar
to that of yesterday. Most locations stay dry today, the exception
is the Yellowstone area and the Bighorn Mountains, which may see
some light snow. Of note today, and tomorrow, will also be the
relative humidity (RH) values east of the Continental Divide. Minimum
RH values around 20 percent occur for portions of Johnson and
Natrona Counties. Combined with gusts of 30 to 70 mph in that area,
there is an elevated fire risk.
Monday is the more complicated day. There are multiple concerns,
which will be discussed in the coming paragraphs. Those concerns are
the cold front passage east of the Divide, snow over the mountains,
snow and wind over western lower elevations, and continued high wind.
Snow begins to move into western Wyoming by Monday morning, ahead of
the trough and associated cold front. Precipitation chances spread
eastward through the day. Monday evening, the cold front and main
push of the trough begins to move through, from northwest to
southeast. This will bring precipitation chances east of the Divide.
Highs Monday will be in the 50s east of the Divide. As the front
begins to move through in the evening, rain or a rain/snow mix is
possible initially. However, once the cold front moves through,
temperatures will quickly drop below freezing. The threat here is
rapid freezing of wet surfaces. Furthermore, winds behind the front
will also be gusting, with 30 mph gusts possible, especially for the
Bighorn Basin and Johnson County (those favored windy spots in north
flow). With rain transitioning to snow, along with wind, blowing
snow then becomes the concern, along with the quickly freezing
surfaces. All this to say, Monday evening through Tuesday morning
will have the greatest impacts, especially east of the Divide.
West of the Divide, snow will fall through Tuesday. Widespread 10 to
16 inches is looking likely for the western mountains. The Tetons
and Pitchstone Plateau are looking closer to 2 feet snow totals. The
Bighorn Mountains look to pick up 6 to 10 inches, with above 12
inches at the highest elevations. The northern part of the
Range is favored for the higher amounts.
Jackson and Star Valleys generally look to pick up 3 to 6 inches,
with some favored locations having higher amounts. For these
valleys, wind will also factor into the impacts Monday. Gusts 30 to
40 mph continue to look likely, which would bring reduced
visibilities with blowing snow. Even with totals less than criteria,
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued to cover this wind and
snow threat. The lower elevations of southern Lincoln County and the
zone from Pinedale to Bondurant have also been included in this
Advisory for similar concerns.
The high wind also continues, with the Warnings mentioned earlier
continuing through Monday evening. However, ahead of the frontal
passage, almost all locations in the CWA get in on the wind. Gusts
of at least 30 mph look likely (85%) for all locations. Many places
will see a maximum wind gust over 40 mph. Of course, those in the
High Wind Warning will see stronger winds, generally speaking 60 to
70 mph, with some areas higher.
Now to Tuesday. Most locations receive snow through the day.
Expected totals for the west are listed a couple paragraphs above.
For lower elevations, generally 1 to 3 inches through Tuesday
evening. The Cody foothills may see closer to 4 inch totals.
Likewise, the Buffalo area may see up to 6 inches. Wind also
continues Tuesday, though won't be as strong as days previous. This
brings the threat of blowing snow. Windiest locations will be across
Sweetwater County, southern Lincoln County and the Green River
Basin, with Interstate 80 being the main impacted area. Snow should
be coming to an end in that area for the afternoon, but recent snow
will be able to be blown around.
Temperatures Tuesday will also be notably cold behind the front.
Most locations see highs peak in the 20s. Temperatures quickly
rebound, however, with near to above normal temperatures expected
again by Thursday.
Snow everywhere should be coming to an end by late Tuesday evening.
A few lingering, light snow showers may continue across the western
mountains. Sweetwater County may continue with gusts to 30 mph
Tuesday night.
Wednesday remains dry, outside light snow shower chances (30%) over
the western mountains. The next approaching weather system brings
better snow chances to the west Thursday. That system looks to come
end of next weekend. Models are in fair agreement of the general
pattern/timing of this system, especially considering it's a week or
more out yet. This is the next storm to watch, as it does have
potential to be another potent system. Will have to watch in the
coming days, especially after this storm occurring the next couple
of days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2024
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Winds
will also continue to be the main impact through the period as
well. The higher gusts will remain at KCPR and KCOD through
Monday morning, while gusts of 25 to 30 kt occur at several
terminals this afternoon. These winds will subside after 00Z.
Mountain wave activity over the northwestern corner of the
forecast area is visible on satellite this morning. This is
expected to last through the day. LLWS is expected over this
area, spreading across much of the west, the east side of the
Bighorn Mountains and over southern portions of Natrona County.
These impacts will decrease after sunrise, becoming confined
over the Absaroka Mountains and the east slopes of the Wind
River Mountains. Precipitation chances will be isolated over the
northwestern mountains between 12Z and 18Z.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
WYZ001-002-012-014-015-024.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Monday
for WYZ002-003-009-015-019-020-022.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for WYZ008>010-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday
for WYZ013-023-025-027.
&&
DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...LaVoie