Wisconsin, 2024Cold in Wisconsin, December 13, 2024
December 13, 2024 · NWS MKX · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Two probable deaths from hypothermia occurred in Milwaukee during a brief period of arctic air.
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- Deaths
- 2
- Injuries
- 0
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- None recorded
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- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Two probable deaths from hypothermia occurred in Milwaukee during a brief period of arctic air.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 12, 9:22 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Arctic air will remain over the region into Friday night.
- The weekend low pressure area continues to trend later, with chances for light freezing rain/mixed precip mainly Saturday morning over south central WI. Precipitation then turns to rain Saturday afternoon.
- Warmer temperatures are likely to stick around early next week. With the warmer temperatures are additional chances for rain.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 12, 9:22 PM CST, 2 hours 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
922 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Arctic air will remain over the region into Friday night.
- The weekend low pressure area continues to trend later, with
chances for light freezing rain/mixed precip mainly Saturday
morning over south central WI. Precipitation then turns to
rain Saturday afternoon.
- Warmer temperatures are likely to stick around early next
week. With the warmer temperatures are additional chances for
rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 922 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight along with light winds
and chilly lows around 0 most places. No significant updates to
the forecast area anticipated for the overnight hours.
DDV
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 256 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
Tonight through Saturday night:
Quiet, dry weather should carry on tonight through tomorrow as
an arctic high pressure center works its way into Wisconsin.
With the center of the air mass overhead, winds will largely die
down overnight, mitigating wind chill concerns. Air
temperatures will still be frigid however, with lows around
zero.
Tomorrow, the high pressure will shift east and winds will come
around to southeasterly. The flow off of the warmer lake waters
will allow our temperatures to rebound, with highs warming to
the upper teens to low 20s.
The arrival of the anticipated low pressure system for Saturday
continues to slow with each successive run of our operational
forecast model suite. With lingering dry arctic air in place,
saturation is taking longer to occur in the models. PoPs of 30
to 55% west of Madison hold off until after 12z Saturday
according to the NBM. Operational runs vary in precip onset
time, adding some additional uncertainty as to what
precipitation type we'll see Saturday morning. Later precip
arrival would mean sfc temperatures would warm to at or above
freezing amid strong sfc warm advection over the region ahead of
the low pressure system, causing more of a rain- snow mix to
rain transition over southern WI. An early arrival of precip
would see a warm nose occur aloft over lingering arctic air at
the surface, leading to light freezing rain before surface
temperatures warm above freezing. At this time, operational
models are about 50/50 regarding either scenario.
For now, we've let the NBM ride, which favors the freezing rain
scenario, leading to 0.01 to 0.05 inches of ice accumulation
west and southwest of Madison. More tweaks will be need to be
made to this forecast as CAMs come into range and lend further
clarity as to how the temperatures profiles will evolve
Saturday.
In either case, precip turns to rain everywhere Saturday
afternoon, with rain wrapping up early Sunday morning.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 247 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
Sunday through Thursday:
With the weekend low pressure slowly moving east out of the state
late Saturday there could be a few lingering rain showers on the
back side Sunday morning. This will be particularly true for
eastern Wisconsin. With temperatures above freezing both Saturday
night and Sunday morning, rain will be the likely precipitation
type. The entire air column looks warm with temperatures above
freezing from the surface until 850 mb. Once these lingering
showers move out, southern Wisconsin should remain dry until
Monday.
The next upper level trough will be right on the heels of the
first bringing additional chances for rainfall Monday into
Tuesday. The surface low is much further north in comparison to
this weekend's system, which will leave much of central and
southern Wisconsin in the warm sector. The expected track for this
system is to ride along the US/Canada board until it hits
Minnesota then tracking northeast toward James Bay. This change of
direction would like be caused by this system becoming more
vertically stacked between the surface and 500mb which will cause
the system to begin occluding. This system could wiggle a bit yet
on track depending on when it begins to occlude at the surface.
This could cause shifts in many features such as the axis of
highest precipitation. As things stand now, southern Wisconsin
will be on the southern edge of this low with southerly winds and
WAA. Day time high temperatures Monday will be in the 40s and rain
will be the likely precipitation type. Much of the heavier rain
is expected to be along the cold front that will move through
later in the day into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning conditions
should become dry again.
By mid week guidance does try to hint at another system, but there
is considerable uncertainty in track and timing. Deterministic
models along vary between no system at all, a system in the Great
Lakes Region or one for the Central Plains. Due to this, stuck to
the average among guidance. The signal for a return to more
normal temperatures with highs in the 30s and overnight lows in
the 20s is expected to return behind the cold front late Monday.
Patterson
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 922 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
VFR conditions are expected tonight into Friday, with mostly
clear skies overnight and increasing high clouds on Friday. Not
out of the question to see ceilings flirt with MVFR near the
lake by later tomorrow as winds become onshore. Light westerly
winds this evening will become light and variable overnight into
early Friday. Winds will eventually become east to southeast by
tomorrow afternoon, while remaining under 10 knots.
DDV
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 245 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
High pressure will sink south out of northern Minnesota into the
Upper Mississippi Valley tonight and increase strength. The
presence of the high pressure center will cause northwest wind
to steadily decrease this afternoon and throughout the
overnight hours. Winds will then become light and variable
Friday morning as the high pressure expands over the Great Lake
Region.
Friday night into Saturday morning, the high will retreat, and low
pressure will move toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. A
tighter pressure gradient will move over the lake, causing sub-
gale southeasterly gusts by Saturday afternoon. Locally, these
southeast winds will likely drive onshore waves to small craft
advisory criteria Saturday morning.
CMiller
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
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Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 12, 9:10 PM CST, 2 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
910 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-140315-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
910 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
While wind chills won't be a major factor tonight with light and
variable winds, arctic air will remain over the region tonight
with lows near zero.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
Arctic air will remain over the region into Friday night.
Mixed precipitation including freezing rain is expected Saturday
morning over southwest to south central Wisconsin, followed
mostly by rain for Saturday afternoon and night over all of
southern Wisconsin. Some light ice accumulation (less than a
tenth of an inch) is possible mainly west and southwest of
Madison.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed.
LMZ643>646-140315-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
910 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
Breezy southeasterly winds and high waves are then expected to
develop early Saturday morning through Saturday night, which will
likely necessitate a Small Craft Advisory.
LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-140315-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
910 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
www.weather.gov/mkx
Cold/Wind Chill, Milwaukee
- When
- December 13, 12:00 AM CST to 1:00 PM CST
- Where
- Milwaukee forecast zone
- Deaths
- 2 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 43.022, -87.929 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Milwaukee County Examiner's office reported two probable hypothermia deaths. Both persons were homeless and one was found outside, while the other was found in a vacant, boarded up home. An arctic airmass had settled over the area.
- Cold/Wind Chill
- Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- High Wind and Winter Weather in California, December 13 to 14, 2024$30,000 · 79 kt wind · 30 events
- Flooding and Heavy Snow in California, December 13 to 16, 2024$54,000 · 12 events
- Winter Storm in California, December 13 to 14, 20243 events
- High Wind in Wyoming, December 13 to 14, 202454 kt wind · 3 events
- High Wind in Texas, December 13, 202453 kt wind · 2 events
- High Wind in Oregon, December 13, 202469 kt wind · 2 events
- Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, December 13 to 15, 202461 kt wind · 2 events
- High Wind in California, December 13, 202457 kt wind · 1 event
- High Wind in Oregon, December 13 to 14, 202455 kt wind · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1221746.