Late on the 13th and into the day on the 14th, a large closed low pressure system developed over the southern Great Basin. In response to this feature, the pressure gradient over northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado began to tighten up substantially.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Late on the 13th and into the day on the 14th, a large closed low pressure system developed over the southern Great Basin. In response to this feature, the pressure gradient over northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado began to tighten up substantially. Strong, gusty winds materialized during the day on the 14th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 3:08 AM MST, 6 hours 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
408 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy snow is expected in the Uinta mountains through this
evening. Elsewhere scattered light snow showers are possible
with minor accumulations.
- Wind gusts of 45-60 mph are possible across portions of
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado today and tonight.
- Moderate to heavy is expected in the southern mountains today
through tomorrow. Upwards of two feet is possible.
- Through early next week there may be several rounds of
precipitation around the Four Corners region due to a stalled
out low pressure in the Desert Southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
At this moment there is a closed low pressure over southern Nevada.
It will continue to drop southward today before stalling out. Much
of the influence on our weather today is being driven by strong post
frontal flow in the High Plains and along the Front Range. The
problem with that is downsloping off the Divide, and trying to
figure out how much precip will dry up. There is some consensus
that QPF will generally be low across the northern half of the
area despite a band that has moved in from the east. Minor snow
accumulations on the roads this morning are possible in spots.
Road cameras are showing snow on I-70 from Avon up to Vail Pass.
That could be the case at similar elevations. Conditions should
improve after the sun comes up. The eastern Uintas are favored
in this moist northeast flow therefore expect moderate to heavy
snow most of the day. Portions of northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado will see strong winds today and tonight due to the jet
on that side of the system. Speeds up to 45 mph will be common,
but gusts upwards of 60 mph can not be ruled out.
Several lobes of vorticity coming out of the main low pressure will
rotate in from the south over the next few days. These will focus
showers across the area. Pinning down the exact location and timing
of these will be tough. One that the models have a decent handle on
is late tonight and into tomorrow. This round of showers will be
driven by a strong jet advecting Pacific and Gulf moisture in from
the south. The southern half of the forecast area has the best shot
of seeing showers during this phase of the storm. It is also when
the San Juans could receive moderate to heavy snow. The air mass is
fairly warm so another uncertainty is how low the snow levels drop
especially overnight. The locations of concern are along the
highway 160 corridor. For now the models are showing perhaps
only a few inches by late tomorrow morning. One thing that is
becoming more certain is gusty winds in the Four Corners region
tomorrow with speeds upwards of 45 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The cutoff low responsible for this week's winter storm continues to
play on house money over Las Vegas Friday night. Neither deepening
or filling, according to deterministic models, it just continues to
circulate Pacific moisture into the southern portion of our CWA.
This will keep snow accumulating on our southeast Utah mountains,
the San Juans, and the Uncompahgre Plateau into Saturday evening.
Models then push the low southward and east slightly. This should
help starve the moisture supply enough to smash down the snowfall
rates Sunday, but not quite enough to stop the snow. Light
accumulations will persist on Sunday across the San Juans and the
Central Mountains up north, as the low begins to fill and track
eastward into New Mexico.
Monday and Tuesday see models try to degrade the surface low, but
hang onto the upper level low across the Southwest, where a few
easterly vort lobes track across southern Colorado and deliver
orographic showers to the mountains. Model confidence is pretty low
early next week, with spaghetti plots struggling to find an outcome
for the stubborn upper low trapped under a ridge arcing northward
into British Columbia. Presently, no strong indicator exists for dry
air to scour the residual pool of moisture hanging over the Four
Corners. The GFS tries to finally kick the upper low out when the
subtropical jet pushes north across Baja and Central Mexico
Wednesday. The EC tries to chip away at the British Columbia ridge,
thereby dissolving the upper low. These are highly speculative model
predictions, considering the anomalous conditions preceding this.
Temperatures will trend cold through the weekend with cloud cover in
place across the region. However, some indications exist for a warm
up over the northern half of the CWA through the beginning of the
work week. Potential cloud cover across the southern half of the CWA
will keep the warm up in check, as the upper low refuses to budge.
Needless to say, the evolution of the pattern following this storm
will continue to vex us.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The next phase of this system will begin this morning as flow
comes out of the east. Several rounds of showers are possible
during the taf period. ALso, gusty winds are expected at some of
the sites. The easterly flow will disrupt the typical diurnal
wind directions. Low-level wind shear is possible. Showers along
with the wind will worsen flying conditions at times at just
about all sites.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight
for COZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
COZ009-010-012.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday
for COZ017-018.
Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
COZ019.
UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight
for UTZ024.
Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
UTZ028.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023.
&&
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJTPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
856 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow 4 E Camp Bird 37.97N 107.66W
03/14/2024 M6.0 inch Ouray CO Dept of Highways
SWE 0.5 inches. Monument on highway 550.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
857 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow Red Mountain Pass 37.90N 107.71W
03/14/2024 M5.0 inch Ouray CO Dept of Highways
SWE 0.4 inches.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
858 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow Molas Pass 37.74N 107.70W
03/14/2024 M3.0 inch San Juan CO Dept of Highways
SWE 0.3 inches.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
859 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow Coal Bank Pass 37.70N 107.78W
03/14/2024 M3.5 inch San Juan CO Dept of Highways
SWE 0.35 inches.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
916 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 AM Snow 15 W Montrose 38.46N 108.16W
03/14/2024 M1.0 inch Montrose CO Trained Spotter
SWE 0.21 inches.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
949 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM Snow 5 WNW Pagosa Springs 37.29N 107.10W
03/14/2024 M2.0 inch Archuleta CO Trained Spotter
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The peak wind gust of 70 mph was recorded at the EW3712 mesonet site in Vernal, CO at 11:00 AM on the 14th. This site also recorded an above criteria gust of 66 mph at 1:35 PM on the same day. Across the zone, gusts ranged from 45 mph to 70 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1168947.