Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Arkansas, March 14, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
246 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Severe storms likely through tonight...

Our first substantial severe event of the spring is underway with
numerous severe storms likely thru tonight. In addition to the
potential for all convective hazards, the threat for flash flooding
will increase tonight as well.

12Z RAOB data from KLZK showed modest instability beneath a
pronounced capping inversion with nearly 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, as well
as pronounced SRH values in excess of 300 m^2/s^2. Satellite trends
thru the morning have hinted at a gradual agitation of cumulus
across the area, although deep convection has been confined to
portions of OK/TX near a SW-to-NE oriented dryline. Anticipating at
least iso/sctd deep convection to initiate over Nrn portions of the
area by 21Z with the more substantial OK/TX convection moving into
Wrn sections around the same time.

The atmosphere these storms will act on remains volatile with a
large reservoir of strong instability (MUCAPE >3000 J/kg) for the
Wrn half of AR this afternoon. 19Z VAD profiles show similar flow
geometry compared to the 12Z RAOB, although the magnitude is
slightly lesser but still sufficient for modest SRH on the order of
200 m^2/s^2. LAPS analysis hints at a mesoscale boundary developing
across central AR coincident with a corridor of locally backed sfc
winds. Aloft, flow remains on the weaker side with nebulous synoptic-
scale forcing for ascent, so convective evolution today will be
largely driven by mesoscale processes/boundaries which inherently
carry low confidence in their predictability.

Current thinking maintains a gradual progression of severe
convection into the NW half of the area by 15/00Z, although more iso
convection will be possible downstream of this activity where
capping is overcome. Any of these storms will readily tap into the
primed atmosphere that's in place with rapid intensification likely.
All severe hazards will be possible, including destructive hail of 2
inches or greater and tornadoes, with the highest hail threat tied
to more discrete cells/clusters this afternoon/evening.

By late evening into tonight, upscale growth into a primarily
cluster/line morphology is anticipated as deep-layer flow aligns
with the mesoscale boundary in place across central AR. This will
support an increase in damaging wind potential with sig hail
becoming somewhat less likely, although iso instances of destructive
hail will remain possible. Gradual stabilization of the BL suggests
a decrease in the tornado threat overnight, but locally backed winds
along/S of the boundary coupled with a slight increase in low-level
flow will enlarge already favorable hodographs with a continued
tornado threat where cells maintain near-surface inflow.

Flash flooding will also be a concern given the highly anomalous
tropospheric moisture in place. NAEFS PWAT progs show mean values
around 1.5 inches (>90th percentile) loosely aligned with the
aforementioned boundary draped over central sections. Given
convective intensity and antecedent moisture, rainfall will be
intense along this corridor, and with the increasing likelihood of
training convection tonight, the flash flood threat will similarly
increase.

Storms should begin pushing SE of the area thru Fri morning as
consolidated outflows move SEwrd, but some lingering stratiform rain
will remain until later in the day when the synoptic cold front
pushes thru with drier air in its wake. Fair, mild weather is
expected thru Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

To begin the period, a weak disturbance will slide just to the south
of the state bringing light rain chances across portions of southern
and central Arkansas. High pressure is expected to move back into
the state by Monday promoting calmer and drier conditions through
the rest of the period.

Rainfall with this system will be on the lower end with QPF amounts
likely staying below a quarter of an inch. The highest rainfall
amount will be confined towards extreme southern Arkansas.

Temperatures will be warmest towards the beginning and end of the
period with a cold front dropping temperatures Monday. High
temperatures Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons are forecast
to be in the lower 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper
30s to mid 40s. Freezing temperatures will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings across the north as the state falls into to the
lower 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Lingering OVC MVFR cigs should gradually lift and become BKN over
the next few hours with winds becoming increasingly Srly to SErly.
Bands/clusters of intense TS will then sweep thru from the W with
onset around 14/22Z NW, 15/03Z central, and 15/06Z SE. Destructive
hail and iso +FC will be possible central/NW with TS diminishing
thru the overnight into early Fri morning. Winds will become
NW/Nrly late in the period with IFR cigs likely near dawn.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  67  45  69 /  90  20   0   0
Camden AR         62  71  50  70 /  90  70  10  10
Harrison AR       50  61  40  68 /  90  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  70  48  71 /  90  40  10   0
Little Rock   AR  62  72  49  71 / 100  50  10   0
Monticello AR     65  72  51  70 /  90  90  10   0
Mount Ida AR      58  69  46  71 / 100  30  10  10
Mountain Home AR  52  63  40  68 /  90  10   0   0
Newport AR        60  67  45  67 /  90  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     63  70  49  69 /  90  80  10   0
Russellville AR   59  69  45  71 /  90  20   0   0
Searcy AR         59  69  45  68 /  90  50   0   0
Stuttgart AR      63  68  48  67 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-151000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
256 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight. All
modes of severe weather will be possible, especially for portions
of northwestern, western, central, and eastern Arkansas. Heavy
rainfall is also likely with the threat for flash flooding
increasing during the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

At or below freezing temperatures will be possible across portions
of northern Arkansas Monday and Tuesday mornings.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

69/67