Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, March 14 to 15, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
Today through Friday Afternoon/

As of this writing, showers and storms have formed along a dryline
just west of our Big Country counties. convection will remain
possible in the northwest as the dryline continues to move
eastward. Large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats.

Uncertainty remains on whether or not early afternoon storms will
fire up out near the dryline when it reaches closer as it moves
further into the region, as continued mesoscale lift will be
needed to completely erode the 850mb warm nose. Though continuing
to scatter, any lingering clouds atop our western counties will
play a factor in daytime heating and destabilization. Current
ACARS soundings show that the cap over DFW is still there, but has
significantly eroded since the 12Z RAOB. This conditionality will
keep rain chances closer to the I-35 low, as most guidance does
not have storms forming until late afternoon. As such, will
continue to advertise a low isolated chance for storms. If a
parcel of air were able to overcome the cap and produce a storm,
large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

The main show for today will likely take place late this afternoon
into this evening. As of current guidance, most CAMs are favoring a
later bloom of convection near the I-35 corridor around 5-6 PM this
evening. The locations that have the best chance to observe severe
weather are generally near and east of a Gainesville-Waco-Athens
curve, where HREF guidance shows the majority of members
initializing convection. Forecast soundings indicate a free-
convecting atmosphere with abundant CAPE, deep layer shear, and
steep mid-level lapse rates between 8-9 degrees. This environment
will promote severe storms capable of primarily large hail and
damaging wind gusts. A tertiary tornado threat will be present and
cannot be discounted, especially in the northeast (near/east
I-35, north I-20), where SPC currently has a 5-10% risk. Over the
afternoon and evening, storms will move northeast.

Meanwhile well to our north, a shortwave disturbance will move to
the northeast, sending its attendant cold front southward through
the Central Plains. Currently, the front is draped across Southern
Colorado and Kansas, and will continue to slowly move towards the
Red River today. The front will eventually reach the Red River
around 11PM-12AM, becoming a mesoscale focus for additional
shower and storms tonight. Best chances for precipitation
will be in the East/northeast overnight into Friday morning, with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats and a tertiary
tornado threat.

A shortwave disturbance will transit around the quasi-stationary
cut-off low over the Desert Southwest, increasing isentropic
ascent overtop the post-frontal airmass and allowing for morning
SW-NE moving clusters. The front will end up slowing as it moves
across Central Texas, eventually stalling just south of our CWA
border by Friday afternoon. This boundary will become a focus for
afternoon storm development across Central and South Texas. There
is a severe threat with the afternoon activity, but the location
heavily depends on the location of the front. Nonetheless, hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

An upstream cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will maintain
unsettled weather until its eventual ejection through the Southern
Plains late next week. While the bulk of the rainfall will be
through this weekend, unseasonably cloudy conditions and periodic
rain chances will persist next week.

After a series of sunny and pleasant weekends, the final weekend
of astronomical winter won't be the best for outdoor activities.
Saturday will be quite wet as overrunning moisture feeds a passing
disturbance. Widespread showers and embedded storms will spread
southwest to northeast across the region during the daylight hours
and into Saturday evening. Adequate cell motion will limit
residence time, but positive precipitable water anomalies will
enhance precipitation efficiency. Rainfall totals Saturday are not
expected to be extraordinary, but following previous rounds of
heavy rainfall on Thursday and Friday, some flooding issues could
arise.

A reinforcing front will arrive on Sunday, providing yet another
chance for showers and storms. The dry advection will invade from
the northeast, keeping the better rain chances from the Big
Country into Central Texas. A lone rain-free day will follow on
Monday during which the sun should re-emerge. Rain chances will
steadily increase thereafter, culminating on Thursday when the
decaying trough upstream finally ejects, tracking directly
overhead.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 137 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Clouds will continue to scatter out over the afternoon hours at
all TAF sites. DAL and GKY remain MVFR and will scatter out in the
next hour or so, while ACT will remain a bit more entrenched.

Scattered showers and storms will be on and off in the vicinity of
the TAF sites over the next 24-30 hours, with the best chances for
on-station impacts generally between 01-05Z for D10. Expect
poor conditions and increased winds and gusts if a storm goes over
the airport.

A front will move through and provide additional rain chances late
tonight. The front will shift winds to the north at D10 around 06Z
and ACT around 08Z.

MVFR cigs will return to ACT around 05Z and possibly DFW around
09Z in the early morning hours along with additional VCTS. While
the cigs will be temporary at D10, MVFR will stick around through
the end of the period for ACT.

Prater

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  68  52  67  55 /  80  50  20  50  40
Waco                62  70  56  66  58 /  70  80  30  60  50
Paris               57  67  50  68  53 /  90  20  10  20  30
Denton              54  66  48  66  51 /  70  40  10  50  30
McKinney            56  67  50  67  53 /  80  40  20  40  40
Dallas              59  68  53  67  56 /  80  50  20  50  40
Terrell             59  68  53  67  55 /  80  50  20  40  50
Corsicana           64  72  57  69  59 /  80  70  30  50  60
Temple              63  73  55  67  57 /  70  80  30  70  60
Mineral Wells       54  68  49  64  51 /  50  60  20  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
severe, are expected this afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, but isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday through
the upcoming weekend. A few strong or severe thunderstorms will be
possible Friday afternoon across Central Texas. These storms will be
capable of producing large hail and gusty downburst winds.

Multiple rounds of heavy rain, especially those that occur in areas
that saw considerable rainfall in recent days, could also reaggravate
flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.