Hail in Texas, November 4, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1040 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1002 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

 - Severe storms possible after midnight off the Caprock.

 - Patchy fog possible late tonight off the Caprock.

 - Another upper level storm system may bring precipitation to the
   area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Surface observations at 2 PM showed the was still camping out just
west of the Highway 83 corridor in the wake of a large complex of
storms farther east. Despite dry and breezy SW winds spreading off
the Caprock, the dryline is encountering plenty of easterly
resistance from deep gulf moisture, slightly backed S-SE flow and a
cool mesohigh on the backside of the departing MCS. These factors
all point to the dryline retreating farther west this evening than
most models suggest in response to sharper height falls preceding
the base of an upper low barreling across AZ and southern NM. A weak
surface low setting up along the dryline should also serve to keep
winds more backed off the Caprock tonight.

Opted to use the HRRR's dryline position roughly from Tahoka to
Memphis after midnight when convective initiation appears most
likely. Severe parameters are favorable for large hail as the brunt
of the CAPE is elevated and situated in the hail growth zone,
although this changes farther off the Caprock where surface-based
CAPE becomes more meaningful owing to richer dewpoints. Ample 0-1km
shear in the Rolling Plains could fuel low-level mesos at times
before convection speeds out of the area before 12Z. Farther west
meanwhile, a healthy 110 knot upper jet streak immediately ahead of
the upper low will accompany strong mid-level cooling while
promoting decent top-down saturation. This setup still looks
favorable for some virga and light showers overnight that continue
through the day on Monday (mainly across our NW zones) underneath a
-20C H5 cold pocket and core of the cyclone. As the upper low treks
across the TX Panhandle by late afternoon, a healthy cold front
drops south on blustery northerly winds. NBM once again looks a bit
too generous with highs in our NW zones where clouds and on/off
precip should keep highs 2-5 degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Showers should die off by Monday evening as the upper level
trough opens back up into a wave as it progresses eastward. Quiet
conditions and cooler temperatures from the frontal passage are on
par for Tuesday and Wednesday. Some areas in the northwest
portions of the CWA will have lows near or below freezing for both
days.

Our next chance for precipitation will come later this week. An
upper level trough currently sitting over the Gulf of Alaska will
progress onshore and dig south to the Four Corners region developing
into a closed low by Wednesday. Chances of rain are forecast to
begin Thursday through the rest of the week with this system but
confidence is low as ensembles are in disagreement of the progression
of the closed low. A cold front will move through the region late
Wednesday into early Thursday bringing gusty northerly winds.
Temperatures were lowered for Thursday and Friday as NBM was slower
to bring the cold air mass following the front through the region
compared to the most recent guidance. Cold air advection behind
the front could bring snow chances to the extreme southwestern
Texas Panhandle late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Thunderstorms chances continue for KCDS mainly after 07Z Monday
morning. This is generally anticipated to be a new area of storms
which will develop to the west of the KCDS terminal and move
across the airfield through sunrise. With the excess near-surface
moisture, visibility has a good shot of dropping into IFR
territory though there is less confidence in dropping ceilings. At
this point, KPVW/KLBB appear to remain VFR through the next 24
hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
232 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

TXZ021>044-042030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
232 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A final round of severe thunderstorms is possible after midnight
for areas off the Caprock. Large hail to golf ball size will be
possible along with heavy rain and minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Areas in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle may see light
snowfall Friday morning.