Breezy west winds were present during the morning through early afternoon of the 3rd, especially across the western combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into eastern portions of New Mexico and Colorado. Westerly winds were sustained around 30 to 40 mph with winds peaking between 1000CST and 1230CST and gusts generally peaked around 55mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
Breezy west winds were present during the morning through early afternoon of the 3rd, especially across the western combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into eastern portions of New Mexico and Colorado. Westerly winds were sustained around 30 to 40 mph with winds peaking between 1000CST and 1230CST and gusts generally peaked around 55mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 11:23 AM CST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1123 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Elevated to spotty critical fire weather conditions continue in the immediate term overnight as RH values remain generally below 25 percent outside of the greater Hereford area, where some moisture remains in the soil courtesy of the five inches of snow that occurred there Thursday. Winds have generally been about 15 to 25 mph out of the southwest overnight with sporadic gusts to 35 to 40 mph. As expected, these gusts have slowly become more numerous as the night as gone on as a shortwave passes over the Rockies, leading to a strong mid-level height gradient and an increase in 700/850mb winds. Today, critical fire weather conditions resume areawide soon after sunrise. Strongest winds will likely occur soon after sunrise as the aforementioned 700/850mb jet looks to be maximized then. A 60 mph gust or two in the far western Panhandles, particularly around Texline and Dalhart, cannot be ruled out if the boundary layer is able to quickly establish itself, as 700mb winds look to be near 60 knots at that time. In any case, with lee surface troughing continuing to our northwest, both gradient and mixing contributions to winds look to be sufficient for critical conditions and, with RH values largely failing to recover overnight, things will quickly become dry enough as well. As for other weather of note, have continued theme of previous full scale forecast update and kept mentions of areas of blowing dust in the northeastern Panhandles due to the large amount of bare ground there due to the Smokehouse Creek fire. Monday, a cold front looks to push southward during the day, shifting winds to out of the north and then east. Temperatures should moderate as a result with highs around 60 to the mid 70s. Unfortunately, this looks to be a mostly dry frontal passage with RH values still dropping into the 15 to 20 percent range. The good news is that progged 850mb winds following the frontal passage are generally 20 knots or less so we should see a notable step downward in wind speeds for Monday. Ferguson && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Zonal H500 flow across the south central CONUS should keep dry conditions through mid week. High temperatures will be slightly above average with values ranging from the 60s to some areas in the lower 70s. Latest 03/00Z model and numerical guidance still continue to show a H500 trough moving from the Pacific Ocean over southern California by midday Thursday. Well ahead of the trough axis, moisture transport will move NNW with its main westward extent into the eastern Panhandles. With some lift ahead of the main trough axis, along with some low level moisture to work with, this will provide the chance for showers and thunderstorms for the eastern Panhandles. Not a high chance, but one to watch. Going into Friday, this is when global model data begins to diverge. A range of solutions from the main H500 trough being more progressive with a quick exit of the region with more dry conditions to a deepening trough over NM by Friday and as it moves through, an increase chance for precipitation for all of the Panhandles. Still have to iron out those details. Using current NBM guidance, about a 20 to 30 percent chance of some precipitation for all of the Panhandles on Friday before conditions dry out for the coming weekend. High temperatures Thursday will start above average before a cold front moves south of the Panhandles dropping highs to below average for Friday and Saturday. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. There will be some blowing dust especially downwind of the recent fires which can lead to lower visibilities. The winds will be gusty and mainly from the W to SW through today with a shift to the SSW later in the afternoon. Robust gusts currently ongoing across the panhandles is expected to weaken going to the late afternoon and evening. Speed wind shear has been observed at the airfields with the ongoing winds. A passage of a cold front Monday morning will see the winds shift westerly before passage and northerly post cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Spotty critical conditions have continued overnight due to winds of 15 to 25 mph with RH values around 25 percent. As sunrise approaches, winds will increase courtesy of a 55/40kt 700/850mb jet, with speeds of 20 to 35 mph and gusts to 55 mph out of the southwest during the morning hours. Downslope component to these winds and efficient mixing will cause RH values to drop to around 10 percent as well. Winds will actually decrease a bit for the afternoon to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Thus, expect widespread critical conditions soon after sunrise. Winds and thus critical conditions are favored to decrease a bit sooner after sunset than previously thought, so have elected to shorten the end time of the Red Flag Warning to 9 PM accordingly. Monday, winds look to remain below 15 mph as a weak cold front arrives during the daytime hours. Thus, neither elevated nor critical conditions are expected. Main point of interest - and uncertainty - is the timing of this front, as this will cause winds to turn clockwise to out of the north initially and then finally out of the east by sunset. At this time, the turn to northerly winds looks to occur during the morning hours with some of the quicker models having this occur across much of the area soon after sunrise while other suggests it will take until around noon for the southern Texas Panhandle to see their initial wind shift. Will watch this closely over the next 24-36 hours. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 44 70 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 38 65 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 34 59 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 43 70 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 41 69 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 43 71 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 47 73 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 36 63 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 36 63 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 42 72 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 42 66 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 45 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 47 73 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 46 75 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003. && SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...98
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 345 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-032200- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 345 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Critical fire weather conditions continue across all of the area on through this evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No widespread hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for critical fire weather conditions today.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The mesonet station located two miles north of Texline measured a 59mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1166024.