Lightning Strike in Florida, March 3, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1237 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Much of this morning's dense fog has eroded according to
observations, satellite imagery, and webcams. Some patchy fog
still remains, but conditions will continue to improve. Thus, let
the dense fog advisory expire. Otherwise, still expect scattered
showers and a few storms to develop this afternoon and only minor
tweaks to the rain chances were made. Temperatures are also
largely on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Southerly flow continues across the region and is accompanied with a
stalled frontal boundary. This has led to widespread fog and stratus
developing overnight which will continue through the morning.
Conditions should start to improve by mid to late morning as
conditions mix out. A shortwave disturbance passes just to our north
this afternoon which may kick up some showers and thunderstorms.
Precip chances dwindle into the evening where we are then looking to
see if fog and stratus make another appearance tonight. Confidence
for timing and development for these conditions is medium, with the
best chances likely developing well overnight and into early Monday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 422 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Shortwave ridging aloft will suppress
precipitation chances on Monday with PoP's generally ranging from 10-
20% areawide. Another round of low stratus / patchy fog appears
possible Monday morning with continued light winds and ample
moisture overspreading the region.

The next chance for rain across the region will be on Tuesday as a
southern stream disturbance moves through the area. With this, ample
shear will be present across the area hinting at the potential for
some stronger storms, though instability remains in question as
persistent cloud cover lingers over the region. With respect to
rainfall, the WPC currently has the tri-state region outlined in a
marginal risk (level 1/4) as localized pockets of heavy rain appear
possible with this system.

Expect high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Zonal westerly flow aloft will set up over the
region Wednesday through Friday evening with a lull in activity
likely. The next chance for rain will begin Friday evening through
Saturday as a large upper trough dips over southern TX before
ejecting over the Gulf into our area. At the surface, low pressure
appears to form somewhere over the southern/central plains
progressing toward the Ohio valley with its attendant cold front
sliding to the forecast area. Severe weather appears possible with
this system as robust moisture appears to draw north into the region
as the low lifts north coupled with a notable low-level jet.
However, there are still some discrepancies between global models
that will be ironed out over the coming days. A major factor
regarding the severe weather potential Friday through Saturday will
be the quality of moisture return which global models occasionally
struggle with this far out. Expect daily highs in the mid to upper
70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

The morning fog and low stratus has dissipated for the most part
with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the afternoon. A
weak sea breeze has been observed pushing inland and may lead to a
smattering of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily
for KTLH and KLVD. Confidence is a bit higher for the TEMPO TSRA
at KVLD than it is at KTLH, but both sites are expected to have
showers and/or thunderstorms in around the aerodromes this
afternoon.

Another round of fog and/or low stratus is forecast tonight with
IFR to LIFR conditions anticipated. Confidence is a bit higher
for lower visibilities at KECP and KDHN, but other sites may also
see lower visibilities develop depending on how things trend this
evening into the overnight. The timing where changes may occur to
ceilings and/or visibility the most is between 08Z to 14Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1014 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Dense fog over the marine areas remains possible, mainly for the
nearshore waters west of Keaton Beach. Thus, have extended the
Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 4pm ET/3pm CT.

From CWF Synopsis: Sea fog is the main concern this morning and
tomorrow for our nearshore zones and Apalachee Bay. Chances for
rain will generally remain around 10-20% through Tuesday before
increasing ahead of the next system. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds will prevail today through tomorrow before freshening and
becoming southeasterly on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Dense fog this morning should linger past sunrise and then quickly
mix out by mid to late morning. Fog is possible again to night, with
areas of dense fog being possible. outside of that, showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for the next few afternoons with
increasing chances for precipitation occuring Tuesday into
Wednesday. Low dispersions are possible across the I-75 corridor and
SE FL Big Bend today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 422 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Some hydro concerns exist ahead of the incoming system on
Tuesday where the WPC has the tri-state area outlined in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall (level 1/4). Around 1-2" of rain is
expected with this system, increasing with western extent. Another
shot at around 1-2" appears possible Friday through Saturday as the
next system approaches the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  61  80  61 /  30  10  20  10
Panama City   75  61  75  63 /  20  10  10  20
Dothan        75  60  78  60 /  20  10  20  20
Albany        75  59  77  59 /  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      79  60  79  59 /  40  20  20  10
Cross City    78  59  79  60 /  40  20  20  10
Apalachicola  70  61  69  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ108.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     GMZ730-750-752-755.

&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Worster