S. and a cold front in the Plains created strong southerly winds across central Illinois on March 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A tightening pressure gradient between a large high anchored over the Southeast U.S. and a cold front in the Plains created strong southerly winds across central Illinois on March 3rd. Sustained winds increased to 20-30mph while gusts occasionally reached 45-50mph along and west of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon. As a result, minor wind damage was reported across parts of Peoria and Tazewell counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 9:14 AM CST, 46 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 914 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across central Illinois today. Highs in the mid 70s will be within a few degrees of daily records. There is high confidence in winds exceeding 30 mph with a few sporadic gusts (10 percent chance) in excess of 40 mph. - A cold front will move across the region Monday evening and overnight with an accompanying threat for showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms with 5 percent probs for 50 kt wind gusts and 1 inch hail. && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 15z/9am obs show SE wind gusts of around 30mph everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. The 12z KILX upper air sounding indicates winds of 45-50mph at the top of the mixed layer, so am expecting some of this momentum to translate to the surface later this morning. Based on the sounding as well as HREF probs, think gusts will increase into the 35-45mph range just shy of Wind Advisory criteria. The strong southerly flow in conjunction with full sunshine will lead to unseasonably warm afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Made a few tweaks to hourly temps/winds, but overall forecast is in good shape and requires no major updates at this time. Barnes && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Early this morning, low pressure is analyzed over northern Nebraska with a tight pressure gradient in place across portions of the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. This gradient will overspread central Illinois today resulting in gusty winds. LREF probs for exceeding 30 mph gusts are near certain for most of the forecast area west of I-57 while the probability for exceeding 40 mph gusts is around 10 percent. Strong southerly flow will result in very warm temperatures this afternoon. Most of the area is expected to warm well into the 70s falling just shy of daily records at our primary climate sites. Records are 78 for PIA, 80 for SPI, and 79 for ILX all set in 1974. A strong low level inversion should suppress low cloud development this afternoon and only a few high clouds streaming overhead are expected. Low pressure will lift north and occlude as it moves into Canada tonight into Monday, but a cold front will push across the Upper Mississippi Valley while the tail end of the front stalls over northwestern Illinois. Temperatures will warm into the 70s once again Monday afternoon ahead of the front. Another shortwave trough will finally give the front a push across central Illinois Monday evening and overnight. Temps will be slow to fall ahead of the front in continued moderately strong southerly flow while dew points remain well into the 50s. In the vicinity of the front, GFS indicates that around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE will be present. With upper level support displaced well to our north, deep layer shear will taper off quickly NW to SE across central Illinois, but there is a narrow region near the front where the better instability has an overlapping area of sufficiently strong (35-45kt) deep layer shear to support a few strong or severe storms. A few counties further SE of the front, deep layer shear drops off to 20 kt or less and capping becomes stronger which should keep any severe threat tied closely to the position of the frontal boundary. LREF joint probabilities of exceeding 500 J/kg CAPE, 30 kt deep layer shear, and -25 J/kg CIN are around 10-20 percent west of I-55 Monday evening but those probabilities drop off after midnight. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe storms across much of the area for this threat with the primary hazards being hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat appears greatest west of the I-55 corridor and will drop off with time as storms move east overnight. In addition, deep layer shear and cloud bearing flow will be largely parallel to the slow moving cold front suggesting some training may be possible. NBM 50th percentile QPF generally runs around half and inch across central Illinois, but if these locally heavier swaths of training storms do materialize, wouldn't rule out some pockets of 1.0-1.5 inches of rain per 95th percentile NBM. Frontal boundary may stall near the I-70 corridor again on Tuesday resulting in some additional precip chances in that area through the day and even into the overnight hours. A southern stream wave moving across the lower Mississippi Valley Monday night will finally give the front a push out of the region with high pressure overspreading portions of the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will moderate with highs back in the 50s and lower 60s with dry weather favored during this time frame. Another low will move across the region Friday and Saturday but very large model differences in the low track at this distance preclude getting too specific on forecast details at this point. Deubelbeiss && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Patchy MVFR fog may impact eastern airfields through mid morning, but otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected most of the day. South winds ramp up later this morning, with gusts up to 35 kts developing by this afternoon. Warm, moist air will advect northward behind a warm front late tonight into Monday, bringing a period of low ceilings and perhaps reduced visbys to parts of central and eastern Illinois. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 349 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-041000- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler- Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott- Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 349 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. South winds will gust 30 to 40 mph late this morning through this afternoon. Strong winds combined with dry relative humidity this afternoon will produce elevated fire danger. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. Deubelbeiss
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few homes had siding and gutter damage in Dunlap.
The siding was blown off a home in Washington.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154952, 1154953.