An upper-level trough remained nearly stationary over the western US resulting in southwesterly flow over Texas. A stationary boundary stretched across central Texas with anomalously moist air south of the boundary.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
An upper-level trough remained nearly stationary over the western US resulting in southwesterly flow over Texas. A stationary boundary stretched across central Texas with anomalously moist air south of the boundary. A series of shortwave troughs moved through the upper pattern generating several rounds of locally heavy rain over three days. There was also some large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 21, 11:22 PM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1122 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 213 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Overcast skies and areas of mist, drizzle, and rain have begun across the forecast area early this afternoon. A disturbance ahead of the first trough has developed showers across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau while the mist and drizzle remain confined to areas east where increased moisture and lowering stratus continue. Periods of breezy wind will continue through the afternoon making temperatures outside feel like they are in the upper 20s to mid 30s, while actual highs today will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s. These colder, dreary conditions will continue into this evening as an upper trough progresses across Mexico to western Texas overnight. Showers will increase in coverage becoming widespread late this evening, with eventually some embedded thunderstorms developing as elevated instability increases ahead of this system. High precipitable water values will aid in the heavy rain potential as this system progresses east across the area. The highest totals are expected to accumulate across the eastern half of the CWA after midnight and through Monday morning. Storm totals out west may only amount to a couple tenths of an inch of rain for this first system, while the eastern Hill Country and areas west will likely see totals ranging from 1-3 inches. Ensembles continue to indicate very high (80-100%) probabilities for areas along and east of I-35 to see at least an inch of rain, with decent probabilities (60-80%) for 2 inches through Monday evening, especially in our far eastern counties. Isolated pockets of rain higher than 3 inches are also possible. With heavy rain forecast, there is the potential for minor flooding to occur, especially in urban and low lying areas. Showers and thunderstorms will quickly advance east with the western half of the CWA seeing dry weather later Monday morning. Areas along I-35 and east will see drier weather by the afternoon. Precipitation chances quickly fill in late evening overnight into Tuesday morning as another disturbance moves across the area. Any additional precipitation may exacerbate any previously flooded areas or streams. Minor river flooding will be possible as well. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 213 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Rain chances continue into the extended forecast period with the passage of several upper level short waves through the local area. Speaking about short waves, there is an upper level short wave moving across South Central Texas during the day on Tuesday. Around mid to late morning, a low level jet of 30 to 40 knots is forecast to be in place between the I-35 corridor and the coastal plains. Dew points in the low to mid 60s are expected to spread across those areas. Forecast soundings suggest for storms developing within this environment could become marginally severe and produce marginally severe winds and hail. This analysis aligns well with SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook which highlights two-thirds of the local area with the exception of the northern part of the Hill Country and the Rio Grande with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Some of these storms are expected to become heavy rain producers as well when putting all the pieces together. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a less wetter pattern is expected with some light rain possible along the Rio Grande but light to moderate shower activity including a storm or two are possible along and east of Interstate 35 and Interstate 37 due to sufficient instability in place. The less wetter period could be the result of a back door frontal passage that enters the Rio Grande plains during the period. Shower and thunderstorm activity picks up again mid to late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon hours as another upper level short wave moves across the Southern Plains. With plenty of moisture arriving from the Gulf and enough instability in place over the coastal plains and areas along and east of Interstate 35, expect another round of showers and storms over those areas. By Wednesday night into Thursday, things look to be on the quiet side as a weak cold front pushes across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday should be dry with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Showing a slight chance for rain on Friday as another frontal passage is expected to arrive later in the day with dry conditions expected next weekend the highs in the 50s and 60s. When all is set and done, storm rainfall totals (Sunday through Wednesday night) could range from one to three inches along Highway 281, two to four inches along and east of Interstate 35 and Interstate 37 and four (4+) inches across the coastal plains and areas along and east of Highway 77. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates have formed around SAT/SSF in the past hour, and there could be some training of additional storms through 09Z. VSBYs below a mile and frequent lightning could be the main issues, but some VRB20 knot wind gusts cant be ruled out. The convective pattern should shift into AUS about an hour later and probably last an hour longer, but as we get into the daybreak hours, additional rounds of convection could contain some occasional thunder going through around 15Z at SAT/SSF and 18Z at AUS. At DRT lower rainfall rates are expected but patchy fog and drizzle may help lower the VSBY to 2 miles, especially by daybreak. Only slight improvements are depicted for the afternoon hours as the heavy rain producing impulse pulls away, but some wake subsidence might bring a few hours of VFR skies before the low level saturation brings more clouds and fog for Monday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 36 57 50 66 / 100 90 60 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 38 59 52 68 / 100 90 60 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 39 59 53 70 / 100 90 70 80 Burnet Muni Airport 36 59 49 63 / 100 70 50 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 41 64 50 71 / 70 10 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 36 59 51 66 / 100 90 60 90 Hondo Muni Airport 39 60 51 68 / 100 40 60 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 38 59 52 68 / 100 90 70 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 40 59 56 66 / 100 100 80 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 39 58 53 69 / 100 70 70 80 Stinson Muni Airport 41 59 54 71 / 100 70 70 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Short-Term...18 Long-Term...76 Aviation...18
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 234 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-222045- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 234 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Tonight. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 4) for heavy rainfall resulting in potential minor flooding this evening and tonight for areas generally along and east of Interstate 35. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a Marginal to Slight risk (Level 1 to 2 out of 4) for heavy rainfall resulting in potential minor flooding on Monday and Tuesday for areas generally along and east of Interstate 35. A Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather exists Tuesday mainly for areas along and east of Interstate 35. The main severe weather threats would be strong winds and hail. Keep up to date with this evolving forecast. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 51 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:29 UTC.
20 flash flood, 5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing numerous low water crossings across the north and west sides of San Antonio.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. A vehicle drove into flood water on Ira Lee Rd. at Corinne Dr. along Salado Creek in northeastern San Antonio.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding that closed the northeast entrance to the San Antonio International Airport. There was also flooding in the short-term parking garage.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. A car was submerged in fast flowing water on the Hwy 90 Frontage Road at Leon Creek in western San Antonio.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. A motorist was rescued from high water on Bear Creek Pass at Bear Creek near Driftwood.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that flooded FM 795 at the Liveoak Branch Creek crossing east of Gonzales.
A thunderstorm produced hail up to the size of ping pong balls in Horseshoe Bay.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Several low water crossings were closed along FM 795 and FM 532 between Gonzales and the Lavaca County line.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing a low water crossing on FM 1115 a few miles north of Waelder.
A thunderstorm produced nickel size hail near the intersection of FM 140 and I-35 in Pearsall.
A thunderstorm produced half dollar size hail in Poteet.
A thunderstorm produced hail up to two inches in diameter northwest of Poteet.
A thunderstorm produced 1.5 inch diameter hail in Poteet.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. The frontage roads of Hwy 90 were closed at Leon Creek in western San Antonio.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. The San Antonio Fire Department had to rescue people from a car stuck in water on the I-35 N Frontage Road at Salado Creek.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing FM 1680 southeast of Waelder.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing CR 351 at Green Dickson Park on Boggy Creek in Shiner.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing numerous low water crossing between La Grange and Round Top.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing several low water crossings in the Schulenburg area.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing CR 351, CR 352, CR 344, and 6th St. near and in Shiner.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing Crockett St. at N. Texana St. and CR 128/Edna St. at Rickaway Branch in Hallettsville.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing FM 1116 at Salty Creek northeast of Pilgrim.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding and a high water rescue on CR 211 south of Smiley.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing numerous low water crossings between Flatonia and Schulenburg.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing numerous low water crossings in the Muldoon area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1159212, 1159215, 1159216, 1159217, 1159218, 1159219, 1159380, 1159381, 1159384, 1159385, 1159387, 1159388, 1159390, 1159392, 1159394, 1159395, 1159396, 1159397, 1159398, 1159399, 1159400, 1159401, 1159402, 1159403, 1159404.