Guam, 2024Rip Current in Guam, January 22, 2024
January 22, 2024 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Large north swell generated by a distant extratropical cyclone, along with elevated wind waves and northeast swell from a descending shear line into the Marianas, created dangerous surf and rip currents along west and north facing reefs of the Marianas from January 17-19, with surf then slowly decreasing through January 22.
- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Large north swell generated by a distant extratropical cyclone, along with elevated wind waves and northeast swell from a descending shear line into the Marianas, created dangerous surf and rip currents along west and north facing reefs of the Marianas from January 17-19, with surf then slowly decreasing through January 22.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 21, 9:26 PM UTC, 6 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 21, 9:26 PM UTC, 6 hours 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
726 AM ChST Mon Jan 22 2024
.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows partly sunny skies and isolated showers moving
through the Marianas Waters. The buoys reveal combined seas of 8 to
10 feet, composed mainly of north swell with a small east swell and
some wind waves.
&&
.Discussion...
Cool dry air brought down from the mid-latitudes by the shear line
is slowly modifying. This is weakening the shear line, and has left
it a shear line fragment. A reinforcing shot of cool dry air is on
its way in the form of another shear line, it remains to be seen if
the shear line will make it far enough down soon enough to provide
some support to the other one.
A surprise 0.52 inches of rain yesterday has temporarily put a cap on
the fire danger. It will probably take the KBDI (573) about a week
to recover to its previous strength.
&&
.Marine...
ECMWF-Wave indicated some 10 foot waves still in Eastern Tinian and
Saipan Waters this morning, so extended the Small Craft Advisory for
them until noon. Did the same for the High Surf Advisory to allow us
to get some surf observations. These should be winding down soon
though. Also the winds are gradually diminishing, just fresh trades
now, and seas of 8 to 11 feet (8 to 10 in Tinian and Saipan Waters).
&&
.Eastern Micronesia...
High Surf and Small Craft Advisories and a Coastal Flood Statement
remain in effect for all regions.
A weak ridge has built up over Kosrae and is pushing westward toward
Pohnpei. Pohnpei currently has scattered showers over them. On the
western side of the ridge near Pohnpei is a trough. This trough is
what is causing the showers over Pohnpei, and it will be heading
towards Chuuk.
The main concerns are the winds and seas. Combined seas have dropped
a bit over night, then have sprung back up. For a time, Majuro was
below all criteria for advisories and statements, however that is no
longer the case. A large period northerly swell has resurged in
Majuro and never really left Kosrae and Pohnpei. Winds are still
fresh to strong. Altimetry suggests combined seas are 10 to 14 feet
east of RMI. Winds and seas are expected to return to below advisory
criteria around Tuesday.
&&
.Western Micronesia...
A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Palau, and remains in effect
for Yap and Chuuk. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Yap
and Chuuk.
For Chuuk, a series of weak troughs are expected to push through the
first half of this week, bringing scattered showers to the Atoll.
The latter half could possibly dry out again as another shear line
starts to pass through.
For Yap and Palau, A dry pattern regime has set up and is expected to
stick around for the first half of the week. For the latter half, a
possible disturbance may pick up or become a trough. Either way the
potential for showers is expected to increase for the end of the
week.
The immediate concerns are the winds and seas. A larger period swell
is for Palau causing a high surf to be reissued for north facing
reefs. For Yap and Chuuk, seas are reaching 8 to 11 feet with
sustained winds of fresh to strong with gusts in the higher end of
strong. Conditions are slowly improving and are expected to continue
to improve through the beginning 3/4 of the week. Seas are expected
to return to below criteria for advisories and statements around
Tuesday, however this maybe delayed. Later next week another shear
line looks to develop and may push into the region. Models are
suggesting this next one will be weaker than this current one.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GUZ001.
High Surf Advisory until 12 noon ChST today for GUZ001.
MP...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for MPZ001>003.
High Surf Advisory until 12 PM noon ChST for MPZ001>003.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 12 PM ChST for
PMZ153- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST this
afternoon for PMZ151-152.
&&
Marianas: Stanko
Micronesia: BowsherRip Current, Guam
- When
- January 22, 2:24 PM GST to 3:00 PM GST
- Where
- Guam forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- Fire Department/Rescue
Firefighters were called to a beach near the village of Asan (across from the old Harley-Davidson store) for a report of two swimmers in distress at 1424ChST. A 13-year-old boy was found and pulled onto the boat, and he did not require any medical attention. the 8-year-old was later found and CPR administered as he was transported to Naval Hospital. It was later reported that the 8-year-old boy later passed away at the hospital. This occurred at the tail end of large surf event created by large north swell and a shear line that brought choppy seas due to strong winds, that started January 17th.
- Rip Current
- A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158231.