Cold in Texas, January 13 to 14, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

Bottom line up front...winter weather headlines have been both
upgraded and expanded to cover the entire region as confidence
increases on a significant and impactful winter weather event
beginning Sunday afternoon through early next week. The Arctic
air mass responsible for this impending event is expected to
invade the region later this evening and overnight before we see
the chances for wintry precipitation increase by late Sunday and
continue through at least the daytime hours on Monday.

First up, bitterly cold temperatures are expected with this air
mass through at least Wednesday morning with overnight lows in the
teens and 20s tonight and Sunday night with much of the region not
expected to get back above freezing on Sunday afternoon except for
possibly in our SE zones. Beyond then, the more significant impact
of this Arctic air will be felt as temperatures plummet even lower
with single digits and teens expected for overnight lows through
the first half of next week. In fact, temperatures are not likely
to climb back above freezing until sometime Wednesday across the
vast majority of the region. This could present major challenges
to local infrastructure so final preparations should be made this
afternoon before temperatures began to nosedive later on tonight.
Combined with brisk northerly winds, these temperatures will pose
dangerous wind chills especially across the NW half of the region.
Therefore, a Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect through noon on
Sunday.

The next major challenge with this event is the expected onset of
wintry precipitation later in the day on Sunday and Sunday night,
initially in the form of sleet and freezing rain in most cases
based on the latest forecast guidance. However, our northernmost
zones may start out as snow and remain mostly snow with 1-3 inches
possible throughout the event into Monday while areas farther
south (generally between the I-20 and I-30 corridors) will likely
see a mixed bag of mainly sleet and freezing rain throughout the
majority of the event.

Given the difficulty of pinning down the dominant precip types,
decided to carry Winter Storm Warning headlines as far south as
I-20 as we could very well see accumulations of both sleet and
ice and possibly even some snow later in the event on Monday.
Looking farther south of I-20, these accumulations appear to be
slightly lower and thus a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for these areas during the same timeframe through 6 PM on Monday.
However, additional upgrades may be warranted depending on the
updated forecast guidance over the next 12-24 hours.

In terms of precip intensity, there remains some uncertainty as
to how effective overrunning conditions will be and thus lower
confidence on exactly how much of each precip type to expect.
With that said, forecast soundings do appear to show a bit more
saturation of the column on Monday so that would certainly favor
more effective production of precipitation, even if initially on
the light side starting Sunday afternoon and evening. In addition,
shortwave energy aloft arriving late Sunday into Monday will also
support increasing lift and some bands of heavier precipitation
during the day on Monday. It is at this point in the event where
travel is likely to become more treacherous as accumulations
should begin to increase more with sfc temperatures staying below
freezing across nearly all of the region through Monday afternoon.

These precip accumulations are generally expected to be 1-3 inches
of snow in northernmost zones mainly north of I-30, while combined
ice and sleet accumulations could reach between one quarter to one
half farther south toward the I-20 corridor and lesser amounts to
the south of I-20. Note that these amounts can and likely will be
adjusted over the next 12-24 hours so continue to monitor future
updates to the forecast.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

By Monday night into early Tuesday, the advancing longwave trough
diving south from the Intermountain West into the Rockies and the
Plains will pivot east and finally help to usher drier air into
the region, bringing an end to any lingering light wintry mix. But
due to the extremely cold temperatures dropping into the teens and
single digits on Monday night into Tuesday morning, any moisture
from earlier precipitation still on road surfaces will refreeze
and present additional travel issues. Our coldest night appears to
be on Tuesday nights with single digits and teens for lows once
again as the Arctic high centers itself right over the region.

Beyond Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a gradual moderation
of temperatures is expected through Thursday as we begin to thaw
out. Temperatures will still remain below average with highs in
the upper end of the 30s through the mid 40s on Wednesday, then
warming even higher into the 40s and 50s on Thursday before the
next cold front arrives later on Thursday night. Fortunately, the
limited moisture return ahead of the front should preclude chances
of widespread precipitation although that possibility cannot be
completely ruled out at this point.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

For the 14/00Z TAF update, VFR conditions are expected through
most of the period after a dry frontal boundary reinforces cold
conditions and elevated northwesterly surface winds (above 10 mph).
Cloud decks will thicken to MVFR vis/cigs by the end of the
period ahead of potential chances of wintry precipitation late
Sunday. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  24  33  25  28 /   0  10  60  60
MLU  26  34  23  28 /   0   0  30  70
DEQ  11  26  17  26 /   0  30  70  50
TXK  18  27  19  25 /   0  20  70  60
ELD  20  29  17  23 /   0  10  70  70
TYR  20  30  24  28 /   0  20  70  50
GGG  21  32  23  29 /   0  20  70  60
LFK  27  38  28  33 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>072.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Winter Storm Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     LAZ001>006-014.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     LAZ010>013-017>022.

OK...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Sunday for OKZ077.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for OKZ077.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     OKZ077.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
     TXZ149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
242 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

ARZ073-LAZ001>006-014-TXZ126-136>138-142045-
Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Ouachita-Marion-Smith-
Gregg-Harrison-
242 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas, north
central and northwest Louisiana and northeast Texas down to I-20.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The Arctic frontal boundary will be arriving this evening with no
precipitation overnight. No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Winter Storm Warning.

A significant and impactful winter precipitation event will begin
Sunday afternoon and continue into early next week. Bitterly cold
temperatures are expected through at least Wednesday morning with
overnight lows in the teens and single digits on Monday and Tuesday
nights with most of us remaining below freezing until midweek. The
wintry mix of precipitation will begin Sunday afternoon with freezing
rain and sleet that will be ending as snowfall. Ice and snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will make travel very difficult.
Prepare this weekend for this holiday weekend winter event and gather
adequate supplies in the event of extended power outages.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-142045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-
242 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for our I-30 corridor of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The Arctic frontal boundary will be arriving late this afternoon in
southeast Oklahoma and spread into Texas and Arkansas this evening
with no precipitation overnight. Dangerous single digit wind chills
will be possible before the onset of any winter precipitation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Wind Chill Advisory and the
Winter Storm Warning.

A significant and impactful winter precipitation event will begin
Sunday afternoon and continue into early next week. Bitterly cold
temperatures are expected through at least Wednesday morning with
overnight lows in the single digits and low teens on Monday and
Tuesday nights keeping us below freezing until midweek. The wintry
mix of precipitation will begin Sunday afternoon with a mix of
light freezing rain and sleet that will quickly transition to
snowfall. Ice and snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will make
travel very difficult with some 6 inch amounts possible. Prepare
this weekend for this holiday weekend winter event and gather
adequate supplies in the event of extended power outages.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ010>013-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-142045-
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
242 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central and northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas south of I-20.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The Arctic frontal boundary will be arriving this evening with no
precipitation overnight. No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the Winter Weather Advisory.

A significant and impactful winter weather event looks increasingly
likely by late Sunday through early next week as a surge of Arctic
air infiltrates the region. Bitterly cold temperatures are expected
through at least Wednesday morning with overnight lows in the teens
Monday night and again Tuesday night with many areas remaining below
freezing throughout the duration of the event. In addition, a wintry
mix of precipitation will likely begin late Sunday and continue on
Monday, ending from west to east in late day and evening. Freezing
rain and sleet accumulations are expected with some light snow
before ending appear to be in the one to two inch range. Prepare now
for this extremely cold weather period, and gather adequate supplies
in the event of extended power outages with potentially 2 to 3 days
below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

24