An abnormally dry month of June 2024 led to flash drought conditions in the month of July 2024. By July 9th, severe drought conditions developed in Lawrence, Giles, Marshall, Maury, and Cumberland counties, or about 13 percent of Middle Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
An abnormally dry month of June 2024 led to flash drought conditions in the month of July 2024. By July 9th, severe drought conditions developed in Lawrence, Giles, Marshall, Maury, and Cumberland counties, or about 13 percent of Middle Tennessee. Drought conditions expanded a week later on July 16th with about 32 percent of the area in at least severe drought. Southern portions of Lawrence and Giles deteriorated to extreme drought conditions at the point as well. Beneficial rainfall during the latter half of July, however, helped to improve drought conditions so that by the end of the month, only southern Lawrence and Giles counties remained in severe drought conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 11:37 PM CST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Earlier convection that was affecting portions of Middle Tennessee has dissipated or moved out of the area, and we are left with quiet weather for the rest of the evening and into the overnight period. At this time, TC Beryl is situated near the Arklatex. By 18Z tomorrow it will be centered near the Missouri Bootheel, and by 00Z it will be north of the Ohio River. So our brush with Beryl will be relatively short-lived. We do expect some convection tomorrow, mainly during the afternoon period, with our rain chances tapering significantly tomorrow evening. There is some storm potential tomorrow, with decent CAPE values, modest levels of helicity, robust PWAT, although mid-level lapse rates will be somewhat lacking (as one might expect with a tropical system). Storm total QPF values associated with Beryl range from generally 1/4" to 3/4", which the greatest values occuring over northwest Middle Tennessee. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weak southerly flow has kicked in this morning and as advertised, dew points have responded. Low 70s are being seen on the bottom left of the plotted METARs across Middle TN. Pockets of sun are going to continue to allow air temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s this afternoon, but we are seeing some light rain showers on radar this morning. While not currently widespread, they are offering some brief relief from the heat. These showers will slowly translate to the northeast through the afternoon hours, possibly becoming a little more widespread as more light returns slip into Middle TN from north MS and west TN. Rainfall totals should be less than a tenth of an inch for anyone through this afternoon. The big story in this forecast package continues to be the remnants of Beryl and how they'll affect the mid-state tomorrow. Latest guidance suggests a slightly more northeasterly track to the surface low and if you were with me yesterday, that was the one thing I was looking for to increase a severe weather threat. While it's still not an incredibly high threat by any means, in an otherwise modestly unstable environment, 40 kts of deep layer shear and 0-1km helicities close to 100 would support some rotating storms. There are a few things going against the severe threat. Mainly the filling (weakening) of the surface low through the day tomorrow and very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, in a quasi-tropical environment, the lapse rates don't usually prove to be all that important. So, let's call it from about 2 pm until 8 pm tomorrow, areas west of I-65 will run a small chance of a quick spin-up tornado. In addition to the very limited tornado risk, we'll see breezy conditions under the tightened pressure gradient and PWs north of 2.0 inches will provide for very efficient rainfall in any storm. Current WPC QPF shows less than an inch for any spot in Middle TN. This is probably pretty spot on, but any training could provide more than an inch. Bottom line, there are no flooding concerns, but a garden or two might be thankful. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Beyond tomorrow, models continue to show dry conditions. This is unfortunate as tomorrow's rainfall will be pretty limited. If I squint, I could see VERY isolated diurnal storm chances this weekend, but I think the bulk of the forecast after tomorrow is going to consist of (at best) 20 PoP on any given day and increasingly warm temperatures with mid 90s making a return by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions should persist through the overnight hours. We're monitoring the activity over west Tennessee, but as for now, it looks to remain west of any terminals in Middle TN. As we get into the late morning/early afternoon hours, thunderstorms, some strong, are possible mainly for CKV/BNA/MQY. Category restrictions will be possible during storm passage. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southerly winds will increase as a tight surface pressure gradient associated with the remnants of Beryl moves over the region. Gusts of 20-25 kts will be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 72 88 69 / 70 70 10 0 Clarksville 89 69 85 66 / 80 70 10 0 Crossville 87 67 80 61 / 60 50 10 10 Columbia 93 68 87 66 / 60 50 0 0 Cookeville 89 69 80 63 / 60 50 10 10 Jamestown 88 69 79 62 / 60 50 20 10 Lawrenceburg 92 68 86 65 / 60 50 0 0 Murfreesboro 94 70 88 66 / 60 60 10 0 Waverly 89 66 85 66 / 80 70 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought conditions worsened across Lawrence County during the month of July 2024, peaking to extreme drought conditions in mid-July. By the end of the month, drought conditions improved to severe drought conditions.
Drought conditions worsened across Giles County during the month of July 2024, peaking to extreme drought conditions in mid-July. By the end of the month, drought conditions improved to severe drought conditions.
Drought conditions worsened across Maury County during the month of July 2024, peaking to severe drought conditions in mid-July. By the end of the month, drought conditions improved to moderate drought conditions.
Drought conditions worsened across Marshall County during the month of July 2024, peaking to severe drought conditions in mid-July. By the end of the month, drought conditions improved to moderate drought conditions.
Drought conditions worsened across Bedford County during the month of July 2024, peaking to severe drought conditions in mid-July. By the end of the month, drought conditions improved to moderate drought conditions.
Drought conditions worsened across Cumberland County during the month of July 2024, peaking to severe drought conditions in mid-July. By the end of the month, drought conditions improved to moderate drought conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1189571, 1189572, 1189573, 1189574, 1189575, 1189576.