An upper level short wave trough passing through the region combined with weak surface low pressure over the James River Valley to result in thunderstorm development over parts of central and eastern North Dakota. One thunderstorm became severe over Windsor, in Stutsman County, causing damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
An upper level short wave trough passing through the region combined with weak surface low pressure over the James River Valley to result in thunderstorm development over parts of central and eastern North Dakota. One thunderstorm became severe over Windsor, in Stutsman County, causing damage. Winds with this storm were estimated at 75 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 1:35 PM CST, 3 hours earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoky skies are expected through Wednesday, with some near- surface smoke reducing visibility at times across central North Dakota. - Hot and humid conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to upper 90s. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today and at various times from Thursday evening through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The Northern Plains still remain in a cyclonic northwest flow pattern this afternoon, though the upstream ridge over the Rockies is beginning to nudge closer. A shortwave trough is crossing the eastern half of the state from north to south this afternoon, and there is evidence of a meso-low centered between Bismarck and Harvey from visible satellite trends and the analyzed surface wind field. These features could help spark a few more sustained showers and thunderstorms over the James River Valley and areas adjacent to the west through the evening. More sporadic afternoon convection driven by diurnal heating under the cyclonic flow is possible elsewhere, but coverage away from the meso-low is forecast to be lower. A few CAMs have been simulating a couple of strong thunderstorms with the shortwave/meso-low in the James River Valley. While SBCAPE is already analyzed around 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear could increase to near 30 kts, model soundings show a thermal inversion around 600 mb that was sampled by the 12Z BIS RAOB that could provide some inhibition. Additionally, RAP non- supercell tornado (NST) parameter projections are once again highlighting a funnel cloud risk over the James River Valley, and though this potential could be lower than previous days given the slight bump in deep layer shear, the meso- low could supply locally enhanced surface vorticity. On Wednesday, flow aloft will turn more northerly and transition to more of an anticyclonic regime over broad surface ridging. This should finally give us a break from any afternoon showers or storms. Highs both this afternoon and Wednesday are forecast in the 80s, closer to 80 in the Turtle Mountains area and closer to 90 in the southwest. Despite the subtle shift in the synoptic pattern, trajectories will remain favorable for smoke from Canadian wildfires to spread over the region through at least Wednesday. Forecast confidence is higher in smoke aloft than at the surface, and concentrations of both should be greater over central North Dakota compared to farther west. Tonight there looks to be a potential for a repeat of a smoke/fog combination reducing visibility to around 3 to 6 miles, as was observed this morning. For Thursday through Sunday, an expansive heat dome/upper level high pressure over the mountain states will push its northeast periphery into the Northern Plains. The main story for us over this time period is above normal temperatures, with NBM forecast highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s most of these days at most locations, and approaching 100 degrees in the southwest. Forecast dewpoints are also consistently in the 60s, expect in the southwest, and approach 70 in eastern parts of our forecast area at times. While this combination of heat and humidity is not unusual for this time of year and this part of the country, this will be our first multi-day stretch this summer. People that are highly sensitive to heat and those who must spend time outdoors will want to take extra precautions. During this period of anomalous warmth, the Northern Plains could also be in a favorable track for ridge riding shortwaves embedded in stronger upper jet flow. This would lead to an increased risk of thunderstorms at times, with at least some potential for severe weather given the stronger flow aloft and warm/moist boundary layer. CSU machine learning guidance has been consistently painting low severe probabilities over much of the state Friday through Sunday. While forecast timing and to a greater extent spatial details of convection remain low at this time range, the first potential is consolidating on Thursday evening across the western half of the state ahead of a lee surface trough and upstream mid level impulse, although a capping inversion could play a role in suppressing convective development and strength. It is interesting to note that subsequent time periods with mentionable NBM PoPs are mostly during the evening and overnight despite there being no strong model signal for a persistent nocturnal low level jet. Early next week, ensemble spread greatly increases on account of uncertainties in the evolution of troughing digging into the Great Lakes region. There is a distinct lowering in the NBM high temperature distribution next week, but mean values are still near mid-July averages of mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period. Smoke from Canadian wildfires is likely to remain thicker aloft than at the surface, but a period of MVFR visibility restrictions from a combination of fog and smoke could occur across central and eastern North Dakota early Wednesday morning, just as was observed this morning. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon and evening, mainly from around KMOT to KJMS, but the chance of occurrence and expected coverage are too low to include a mention in the TAFs. Winds will remain light through Wednesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-101945- Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce- McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons- Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather is not expected, but there is potential for a stronger storm or two producing small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a funnel cloud. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>045-101945- Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley- Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux- 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 /141 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Hollan
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
456 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024
NDZ036-092230-
Kidder ND-
456 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KIDDER COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM CDT...
At 454 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a
landspout was near Tappen, or 45 miles southwest of Carrington,
moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tappen, Dawson, and Crystal Springs. This storm will move over
Interstate 94 between Dawson and Crystal Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4694 9984 4705 9978 4704 9963 4687 9945
4676 9950 4675 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 327DEG 19KT 4690 9968
LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HAMILTONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
521 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024
NDZ037-092300-
Stutsman ND-
521 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM CDT...
At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Cleveland, or 17 miles west of Jamestown, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Eldridge, Cleveland and Windsor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. This thunderstom will over Interstate 94
between Cleveland and Eldridge. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4702 9912 4705 9900 4689 9879 4683 9890
4684 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 324DEG 13KT 4698 9904
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HAMILTONThe Bismarck radar (KBIS), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:36 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A dumpster was flipped, an awning was stripped off of a motor-home, a metal shed was displaced over 500 feet, and a chicken pen was flattened.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1203355.