Large northerly swells affected the Atlantic coastline of Puerto Rico during the week of March 13th. This produced large breaking waves higher than 10 feet and life-threatening rip currents along the north and east-facing beaches of the islands.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Large northerly swells affected the Atlantic coastline of Puerto Rico during the week of March 13th. This produced large breaking waves higher than 10 feet and life-threatening rip currents along the north and east-facing beaches of the islands.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 4:44 AM AST, 8 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...The primary hazard risks focus on marine and rip
currents driven by pulses of a northerly swell spreading across
the Atlantic waters and local passages. Small Craft Advisories,
High Surf Advisories, and a High Rip Current Risk remain in effect
across the area. Starting today, the tightening of the local
pressure gradient will cause an increasing non-thunderstorm wind
risk, with breezy conditions likely across coastal areas and
portions of the local islands. An increase in moisture levels and
weakening of the mid-level ridge will likely cause an increase in
shower activity early next week. Warmer-than-normal temperatures
are still likely today. Current soil conditions and the expected
weather scenario will contribute to an elevated risk of wildfire
spreading, particularly across southwestern Puerto Rico.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Stable weather conditions prevailed across all the islands during
the night and early morning hours. Satellite imagery showed a few
clouds over the coastal and exposed waters, with no shower activity
over the coastal areas. Surface winds prevailed in the east-
northeast at eight mph or less. Overnight temperatures across the
coastal areas were in the mid to upper 70s, and the mountains were
much fresher from the low to mid-60s.
Very stable weather conditions will persist for the rest of the day
due to a drier airmass remaining in place. According to the imagery
derived from the GOES satellite, PWAT values are 0.79 inches, which
is well below the climatological normals. As a result, mostly sunny
skies will prevail today, with a few clouds across the northern
sections of the islands. Localized afternoon activity cannot be
ruled out due to the local and daily effects. However, the chances
of rain remain below 20% for the interior and western interior
sections. Daytime temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s
across the coastal areas, and in the mid 70s across the mountains.
From Thursday onwards, model guidance continues to suggest an
increase in tropical moisture reaching the local islands, pushed by
the east-southeasterly winds across the region. This increase in
humidity trapped at 700 MB will turn into a more variable pattern
across the islands, with chances of more frequent passing showers in
the evening and early morning hours. Although an increase in
moisture will enhance good periods of shower activity, a mid to
upper-level ridge will hold a hostile environment for widespread and
long-life shower activity. As a result, shower activity was included
in the forecast for both days, but significant rainfall
accumulations are not anticipated at this moment.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
The latest model guidance now supports an even drier weather
pattern through most of the period, interrupted by a premature and
shorter wet period. Mid-level ridging will maintain less conducive
conditions for deep convective development, with a robust trade
wind cap inversion and drier air entrainment above the 700 bar
layers. A brief weakening of the mid-level ridge is likely early
next week, allowing an increase in precipitable water as moisture
spans beyond the 700 mbar layer. Regarding moisture variations,
normal to below-normal seasonal moisture levels ranging between
1.0-1.4 inches will be the norm, with wetter-than-normal
conditions likely between late Sunday night and early Tuesday
morning, when above to well-above moisture levels exceeding 1.5
inches are possible.
At lower levels, a high pressure moving across the western into
the central Atlantic will yield easterly winds during the weekend,
gradually veering from the east-southeast to southeast early next
week. As this feature builds and meanders north-northeast of the
region, breezy conditions are also likely early next week. In
response to the expected weather conditions, colder-than-normal
conditions are possible on Friday, followed by more seasonal
temperatures on Sunday and possibly warmer-than-normal conditions
during the first half of next week.
Fair and stable weather conditions with limited to no shower
activity will prevail during the weekend and will likely return on
Tuesday and Wednesday with the entrance of a drier-than-normal
airmass. With increasing available moisture, there is a likelihood
for increased shower activity on Monday, reflected in increased
passing showers moving over windward areas and more robust
afternoon convective development, mainly across northwestern
Puerto Rico. So far, excessive rainfall risks should remain low
throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period across all
TAF sites. Winds will continue from the NE at 10 knots or less until
13/15Z, increasing up to 15 knots from the E-NE with gusty winds and
sea breeze variation. Shower activity is not anticipated near the
TAF sites; however, afternoon activity across the mountains will
result in lower ceilings across the interior areas. Winds will
diminish at 13/23z, becoming more from the east.
&&
.MARINE...
A building surface high pressure spreading eastward across the
western Atlantic will yield moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds. Northerly swells will continue to arrive and spread across
the local waters today. These swells will create hazardous seas
for small craft across the Atlantic waters and local passages.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for these areas due to
seas. For details, refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast
(CWFSJU, CWFSPN) and Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU).
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern US Virgin
Islands. Large breaking waves up to 10-12 feet will likely
produce localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions.
Northerly swells continue to spread across the region for the
next several days. The rip current hazard risk remains high for
north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguada and Rincon
eastward to Fajardo and Ceiba, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands through at least Thursday afternoon. For details,
refer to the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone
Forecast (SRFSJU).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing wind speeds will likely exceed 15 mph today,
attributed to a surface high pressure building over the western
Atlantic. In the meantime, drier-than-normal conditions are also
expected, with humidity values likely falling below 50-55 percent.
Regarding soil conditions, primary observing stations across
southwestern Puerto Rico indicate favorable conditions for
spreading wildfires, with KBDI values exceeding 550. This scenario
will support an elevated fire danger risk, with the highest risk
expected across the southwest quadrant of the island between the
late morning and early afternoon, where abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions persist. For this reason, a Fire Danger
Statement (RFDSJU) has been issued for these areas.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ013.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for VIZ001.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM GMT Thursday for AMZ711-712-716-
741.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM GMT Thursday for AMZ742.
&&
SHORT TERM...LIS
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...LIS
PUBLIC...ICP/LISPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 441 AM AST miercoles 13 de marzo de 2024 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-140845- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 441 AM AST miercoles 13 de marzo de 2024 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Viento...Condiciones ventosas a traves de las areas costeras de las islas. .Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a traves de las aguas mar afuera y cerca de la costa del Atlantico, incluyendo el pasaje de Mona. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas Peligrosas se esperan corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida en la zona de olas particularmente desde el noroeste hasta la costa noreste, Culebra y Vieques. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Una marejada del norte continuara resultando en condiciones marinas y costeras peligrosas para el resto de la semana. El aumento en los vientos, inducirán oleaje impulsado por el viento, manteniendo condiciones marinas peligrosas para el resto de la semana laboral. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN OBSERVADORA... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-140845- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 441 AM AST miercoles 13 de marzo de 2024 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Virgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a traves de las aguas mar afuera y cerca de la costa del Atlantico, incluyendo el pasaje de Mona. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en el oleaje para todas las Islas Virgenes Americanas. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Una marejada del norte continuara resultando en condiciones marinas y costeras peligrosas para el resto de la semana. El aumento en los vientos, inducirán oleaje impulsado por el viento, manteniendo condiciones marinas peligrosas para el resto de la semana laboral. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN OBSERVADORA... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A rip current swept away a 52-year-old male tourist from Minnesota at La Pared Beach in Luquillo on March 13th. The person was rescued and taken to the Caribbean Medical Center in critical condition, where he died.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2024-03-13 | 52 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1164921.