Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, March 13 to 14, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms remain likely (60-90%) across the area this evening.

- The main hazard with any thunderstorm is very large hail, though
damaging winds and a few tornadoes are also possible.

- Showers and storms become more isolated into Thursday,
  followed by drier and cooler weather late this week into the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watch have been issued through
1 AM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

19Z water vapor imagery shows a 500mb speed max rounding the base of
the upper trough as it crosses the Rockies. The associated sfc low
is centered in the TX/OK panhandles into far southwest KS with its
warm front stretched near the I-70 corridor early this afternoon.
Dew points in the warm sector in southeast and east central KS have
increased into the mid to upper 50s, with 60-degree readings still
mainly in OK outside of a few isolated locations in far eastern KS.
Of note is the fact that the low-level moisture appears to have
stalled somewhat behind the warm front, as dew points along I-70 are
still in the 40s.

For the rest of this afternoon into the evening, the focus for
convective initiation has been along the warm front with
thunderstorms quickly moving northeastward. However, subtle changes
in trends (such as that noted in the previous paragraph about
lagging moisture) lead to lingering questions on exactly how far
north or south storms will initiate and exactly what time. Most CAMs
continue to highlight supercells firing along the front around 01Z,
but some guidance has showed discrete cells developing as early as
22-23Z closer to the triple point towards central KS and that
possibility cannot be discounted. RAP/HRRR forecast soundings
indicate the cap should erode by 21-22Z, and sfc winds along the
warm front are forecast to back slightly between this time and 00Z.
This would act to increase low-level SRH with hodographs becoming
increasingly favorable to ingest streamwise vorticity. The better
upper-level support still looks to arrive as the 500mb jet streak
approaches with the area set in the exit region, and as the LLJ
strengthens after 00Z, which is likely the reason for higher storm
coverage by that time. It is also worth noting that while the RAP
has 0-1km SRH as high as 300-400 m2/s2 this evening, it is south of
the warm front and more associated with the LLJ. All of this is to
say, the time window for tornadoes remains quite narrow, but if a
discrete storm were to develop in the aforementioned
environment late this afternoon, it would become severe quickly.
The bigger concern with any storms throughout the afternoon or
evening is large or very large hail with instability, mid-level
lapse rates, and deep-layer shear well supportive of that
threat.

The severe weather threat should come to an end by midnight as
instability wanes and the majority of convection moves northeast
into NE. There looks to still be some isolated activity behind the
cold front associated with the sfc low, and that boundary is slow to
move across the area. It looks to potentially stall in central KS
overnight and slowly move across the area Thursday morning and
eventually exit by mid-afternoon.

Sfc high pressure builds in by Friday, with cooler and drier air
filtering in for the end of the week into the weekend. Highs in the
60s are forecast Friday and Saturday, then cooling into the 50s for
Sunday and Monday behind a secondary push of cooler air from
the northern stream trough while a cut-off low circulates over
the southwestern CONUS. A warm-up then looks to arrive by next
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Storms continue to develop just south of the terminals. Should
lift north into the terminals over the next hour or two. May
need to adjust timing slightly earlier if progression is faster.
Coverage should increase so may be able to transition VCTS to
TSRA once a track to storms develop more into the terminals.
Expect the frontal system to and low center to transition
through the area over the next 6 hrs or so. This will cause and
abrupt change to the winds as the which will change to the NNW.
Winds increase into the morning and afternoon tomorrow. Stratus
deck through the morning and afternoon tomorrow expected to
remain within marginal VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
548 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

KSZ022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-142300-
Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-
548 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 37 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Tornado Watch has been issued. See weather.gov/top for more
details.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the late afternoon and
evening hours across northeast and north central Kansas and could
quickly become severe. The likely window for thunderstorm
development is between 5 and 8 pm. The storms will be capable of
producing very large hail over two inches in diameter, damaging wind
gusts, and even a tornado or two. The storms should move to the
north and northeast through the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There could be some thunderstorms across northeast and east central
Kansas Thursday. These storms are not expected to be severe but
could still produce a lightning hazard for those outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report hail of one inch or
larger, wind damage, tornados and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ008>012-020-021-034-142300-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-
548 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Kansas and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. See weather.gov/top for
details.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the late afternoon and
evening hours across northeast and north central Kansas and could
quickly become severe. The likely window for thunderstorm
development is between 5 and 8 pm. The storms will be capable of
producing very large hail over two inches in diameter, and damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph. The storms should move to the north and
northeast through the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There could be some thunderstorms across northeast and east central
Kansas Thursday. These storms are not expected to be severe but
could still produce a lightning hazard for those outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report hail of one inch or
larger, wind damage, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ059-142300-
Anderson-
548 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening. While the greatest
threat for severe weather will be north of Anderson County, there is
still a very slight chance (less than 20%) that a severe storm could
impact Anderson County with large hail and damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There could be some thunderstorms across northeast and east central
Kansas Thursday. These storms are not expected to be severe but
could still produce a lightning hazard for those outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report hail of one inch or
larger, wind damage, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf