Rip Currents in Guam, March 13 to 17, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
827 AM ChST Wed Mar 13 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows high end partly cloudy skies and isolated showers
moving through the Marianas and surrounding waters. The Tanapag buoy
shows of 7 to 9 feet composed of northeast swell and wind waves.

&&

.Discussion...
Winds and seas are diminishing in general. They could kick up again a
little Thursday. They should stay just below Small Craft Advisory
criteria, and hopefully just below Red Flag Warning criteria. After
that, things fall away for real. The marine outlook indicates we
could plumb 3 to 5 feet by the middle of next week, with winds of 10
to 15 knots.

&&

.Marine...
As mentioned above, for the next day or two, we might still challenge
Small Craft Advisory criteria, but should stay just below. However,
around Friday or Saturday, the bottom falls out on the winds and
waves. After that, we should be back to benign marine conditions,
for up to a week anyway. The far distant outlook has another big
north or northwest swell rolling in, that's a bit on the speculative
side right now though.

&&

.Fire weather...
The KBDI for this morning has dropped to 647, which still remains in
the High range. It would need high winds to be in the Very High
range, and those could be lacking today. The Red Flag Warning was
allowed to expire, we might challenge the criteria Thursday, but are
expected to fall just short. After that, we should have an extended
reprieve of several days.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Pohnpei, Kosrae and
Majuro, and, High Surf Advisories remain for Kosrae and Majuro, along
with Coastal Flood Statement for Majuro, all until Thursday afternoon.
Winds and seas are expected to slowly subside the rest of this week
and the risk for coastal flooding is also decreasing as the peak of
the King Tide has past.

ASCAT winds show trade winds still surging across the region, and a
surface trough is moving west into Pohnpei State early this morning.
Satellite shows clouds and scattered showers across much of this
region, including the southern Marshall Islands and down to Tarawa,
although a little drier flow was indicated just east and northeast of
Majuro. Models still differ significantly; with GFS indicating a
more active weather pattern developing than ECMWF. So, while marine
conditions gradually improve, weather across Eastern Micronesia could
become more unstable in the coming days.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The Surf Advisory for Yap has expired and no other advisories are in
effect for Western Micronesia at this time. ASCAT winds indicate a
Near Equatorial Trough (NET) stretching across southern parts of The
Republic of Palau. Satellite shows patchy showers were on the north
side of the trough, mainly to the east of the Koror area, and a few
spotty showers were approaching Yap. For Chuuk, an increasingly
moist flow was arriving from the west. The moist flow is associated
with the cloudiness and scattered showers triggered by a surface
trough over Eastern Micronesia that's moving slowly westward.

Moderate to fresh marine conditions are expected for the near term,
but then combined seas are expected to build later this week. Surging
trade wind conditions from Eastern Micronesia are moving westward
and a shear line is edging southward, along with a northerly swell.
Combined seas could build to around 8 to 9 ft for Yap and Palau, and
possibly up to 10 feet around Chuuk by Monday. Ngaraard/Babeldaob
Buoy this morning shows combined seas of 6 to 8 feet, mainly from
the northeast but some easterly components.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

Marianas: Stanko
Micronesia: Simpson