An exceptionally strong low pressure system over the eastern Pacific and an accompanying frontal boundary brought locally strong winds to the coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
An exceptionally strong low pressure system over the eastern Pacific and an accompanying frontal boundary brought locally strong winds to the coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 19, 3:20 PM PST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
320 PM PST Tue Nov 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...A powerful system offshore will bring strong winds
to the coast and breezy conditions to the interior valleys this
this evening through early Wednesday morning. This system will
also bring another round of heavy snow to the High Cascades. Wet
weather continues through the end of the week, but the
probability for significant hydro impacts has diminished with
time as a strong atmospheric river remains south of the area.
Another system may bring another round of wind impacts on
Friday, but forecast confidence remains low at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a mature,
powerful low pressure system nearing peak intensity
approximately 375 miles west of the Columbia River Bar. An open
ocean buoy just east of the center of the storm reported a sea
level pressure of 951 mb that was still falling as of 2 PM
Wednesday, along with Hurricane Force wind gusts of 64 kt and 22
ft seas. An occluded front arcs southeast from the low center
to the coastal waters of Washington and Oregon, bringing Storm
Force winds which are expected to gust to Hurricane Force by
later this evening. Rain is spreading across northwest Oregon
and southwest Washington ahead of the system this afternoon,
with snow ongoing in the Casacdes above about 3000 feet per
latest webcam images.
Latest buoy observations suggest winds with the system are
roughly in line so far with the most likely forecast scenario,
which would result in 55-60 mph gusts along the coast and 35-45
mph winds in the interior valleys later this evening. The
current wind headlines therefore remain on track through early
Wednesday morning. There is still a 20-25 percent chance that
beaches and headlands could see a few gusts of 70+ mph as the
front moves onshore between 6-10 PM this evening. Meanwhile, the
higher end scenario for the Willamette Valley of 50-55 mph gusts
is currently sitting at around a 10-15 percent chance of
occurring, with the central and south valley from Salem to
Eugene remaining the most likely areas to see those higher end
gusts.
Rain will intensify across the area later this evening and
overnight as an IVT plume around 500-700 kg/m/s moves onshore
and then quickly drops south of the area by Wednesday morning.
That being the case, expect additional rainfall amounts across
the area of 1-2 inches on the coast and 0.50-1.00" inland
through tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for
the Cascades, with the highest snowfall amounts expected above
4000 feet as snow levels continue to rise through this evening.
Expect another 8-12 inches of accumulation at the passes
through Wednesday morning. Strong winds will also create areas
of blowing snow and contribute to reduced visibility at times.
Winds will diminish and precipitation will become more showery
in nature Wednesday morning in the wake of the front, with
showers then continuing through the day. Expect lighter
precipitation amounts of around a quarter to a half inch at the
coast and a tenth to a quarter inland through Wednesday evening.
Also could see a few rumbles of thunder along the coast through
and over the coastal waters. Snow levels in the Cascades will
reside around 4000-4500 feet through Wednesday evening, with
minimal additional accumulations in the passes.
Showery weather continues into Thursday, before attention
quickly turns to the next system to potentially impact the area
Thursday night into Friday. Models are coming into better
agreement on depicting another low developing off the northern
California coast Thursday night and tracking rapidly northward
towards the Washington coast on Friday. From a conceptual
standpoint, this would be a more favorable track for bringing
wind to the interior valleys on Friday, but the precise track
and intensity of the low will have large implications on the
forecast. There is still quite a bit of model spread with regard
to these details, which will obviously bear close watching over
the next 24-48 hours. For now, NBM probabilistic guidance
depicts a 50-60 percent chance for 50 mph wind gusts along the
coast and a 20-40 percent chance for 40 mph wind gusts in the
Willamette Valley on Friday.
Model QPF remains in line with previous thinking through the
end of the week, with 48 hour rain amounts ranging from 1.5-2.5"
along the coast and 0.75-1.25" inland through Friday morning.
Hydro impacts continue to appear rather minimal as a result,
with latest HEFS guidance continuing to indicate a 10-20
percent chance of reaching minor flood stage on the more
responsive rivers draining the coast range. Winter weather
impacts will also be minimal as snow levels rise above 7000 feet
on Thursday. Otherwise, showery conditions look to persist into
this weekend and beyond as medium range guidance continues to
depict upper level troughing lingering over the NE Pacific
through the weekend. /CB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions areawide ahead of a very strong front
expected to cross the airspace this evening and overnight, will
bring rain and very strong, gusty south/southwesterly winds across
the airspace. Southeast to northwest flow is helping keep the
cloud deck around 5-6 kft. Gusts along the coast up to 55 kt will
be possible with the highest gusts expected south of KTMK. Inland
locations should expect gusts up to 35 kt. These gusty conditions
are expected to persist through at least 12Z Wednesday. Conditions
are expected to bounce between VFR/MVFR after 06Z as the front
continues to push onshore.
Given the very gusty conditions, LLWS in the form of speed shear
will be potential issue through 12Z Wednesday across the
airspace.
PDX APPROACHES...VFR conditions to start, bouncing between
VFR/MVFR after 06Z as a strong front will bring rain Gusty winds
(gusts up to 35 kt) as well as the potential for LLWS in the form
of speed shear through 12Z or so on Wednesday. -Batz
&&
.MARINE...A strong storm impacting the region will bring
increasingly treacherous conditions this evening and tonight.
Hurricane Force wind gusts are expected across the outer waters,
as well as Storm Force winds to the inner waters and Columbia
River Bar. Expect gusts up to 70 kt for the outer waters, with
gusts up to 55 kt elsewhere. Strong winds and a large incoming
swell will cause seas to build towards 24 to 28 ft. Winds should
subside towards very strong Gales around 4 am tonight and then
continue to subside through Wednesday night. However, seas will
remain elevated but will slowly subside through Wednesday night
towards 19 to 21 ft and will continue that trend through Thursday.
HAzardous Seas Warning will likely follow the ramp down from
Gales late Wednesday.
There is little reprieve this week as the next system is expected
to bring another round of elevated winds and seas Thursday night
into Friday. There still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with
the Friday system and models are varied in strength and track of
the low. As a result am keeping strong Small Craft gusts in the
forecast with seas in the 11 to 14 ft range. The latest NBM
probabilities for Gales are 30-50% with the greater chances across
the outer waters. There is also a 20-30% for seas to build back
towards 20 feet. -Batz
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Large waves and hazardous surf conditions
through Wednesday afternoon, with breakers of 21 to 26 ft
expected.
Destructive waves may wash over beaches, jetties, and other
structures unexpectedly. People can be swept off rocks and jetties
and drown while observing high surf. Minor beach erosion may
damage coastal properties and buildings. Higher than normal water
run-up is expected on beaches and low-lying shoreline.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ101>103-106-
107.
High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Wednesday for ORZ101>103.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ108>118.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
ORZ126>128.
WA...High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ201.
High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Wednesday for WAZ201.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ204>207.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ211.
PZ...Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ210-251>253.
Hurricane Force Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
PZZ271>273.
Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Wednesday
for PZZ271>273.
&&
www.weather.gov/portland
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x.com/NWSPortlandPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Portland OR
404 PM PST Tue Nov 19 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM Snow 5 S Wilson River Summit 45.54N 123.37W
11/18/2024 M16.0 Inch Washington OR Mesonet
saddle mountain snotel. 4 inches first
reached at 09z 11/18.
1000 PM Snow 12 N Waldo Lake 43.90N 122.03W
11/18/2024 M16.0 Inch Lane OR Mesonet
roaring river snotel. lots of missing data
make it difficult to assess when 12 inches
was hit.
0500 PM Snow 2 S Mount Saint Helens 46.16N 122.18W
11/18/2024 M15.0 Inch Skamania WA Mesonet
swift creek snotel. it would have first hit
12 inches in 24 hours around 09z 11/18.
1200 AM Snow 9 SSW Detroit 44.61N 122.23W
11/19/2024 M14.0 Inch Linn OR Mesonet
little meadows snotel. lots of missing data
made it difficult to see what happened
earlier.
0700 PM Snow 8 E Spirit Lake 46.27N 121.96W
11/18/2024 M12.0 Inch Skamania WA Mesonet
Lone Pine Snotel. Approximately 12 inches
between 7 pm 10/17 and 7 pm on 10/18.
0300 AM Snow 5 N Brightwood 45.45N 122.03W
11/19/2024 M12.0 Inch Clackamas OR Mesonet
south fork bull run snotel at 2690 ft.
0500 PM Snow 3 WNW Upper Lewis River 46.18N 121.93W
11/18/2024 M10.0 Inch Skamania WA Mesonet
Spencer Meadow Snotel. Approximately 10
inches of snow fell between 01z on 10/18 and
01z 10/19.
0200 AM Snow 1 WSW Marion Forks 44.59N 121.97W
11/19/2024 M9.0 Inch Linn OR Mesonet
marion forks snotel at 2590 feet.
1200 AM Snow 1 WSW Santiam Pass 44.42N 121.86W
11/19/2024 M7.0 Inch Linn OR Mesonet
hogg pass snotel.
1200 AM Snow 4 WNW Willamette Pass 43.61N 122.12W
11/19/2024 M7.0 Inch Lane OR Mesonet
salt creek falls snotel.
1000 PM Snow 6 SW Gales Creek 45.53N 123.30W
11/18/2024 M6.0 Inch Washington OR Mesonet
seine creek snotel.
0710 AM Snow Wilson River Summit 45.62N 123.38W
11/19/2024 M4.0 Inch Washington OR Dept of Highways
tripcheck odot report from wilson river
summit.
0711 AM Snow 1 NW Sunset Summit 45.81N 123.48W
11/19/2024 M3.0 Inch Clatsop OR Dept of Highways
Tripcheck report from Sunset Summit.
0200 AM Snow 3 SE Camp Bonneville 45.67N 122.38W
11/19/2024 M2.0 Inch Clark WA Trained Spotter
Station Elevation: 1400 ft.
0700 AM Snow 1 SW Lees Camp 45.59N 123.53W
11/19/2024 E2.0 Inch Tillamook OR Dept of Highways
lees camp.
0600 AM Snow 2 SSW Lyons 44.76N 122.62W
11/19/2024 M2.0 Inch Linn OR Cocorahs
Cocorahs station OR-LN-12 Lyons 1.6 SSW.
0707 AM Snow 1 W Amboy 45.89N 122.47W
11/19/2024 M0.7 Inch Clark WA Public
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Portland OR
609 PM PST Tue Nov 19 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0608 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Yachats 44.32N 124.11W
11/19/2024 M55 MPH Lincoln OR Mesonet
South to southwest winds sustained 25 to 30
mph, gusts 45 to 55 mph since 5 pm.
&&
ccrPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Portland OR
622 PM PST Tue Nov 19 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0605 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Eugene Airport 44.13N 123.21W
11/19/2024 M53 MPH Lane OR ASOS
Southeast wind sustained 20 to 30 mph, with
gusts around 50 mph since 430 pm.
&&
ccrThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
ODT38 Yaquina Bay Bridge; peak gust 73 mph 11/19 2212, around 58 mph from 11/19 2130 - 11/20 0000. EW1135 Yachats; Peak gust of 60 mph 11/19 2245 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1221935.