High Wind in Oregon, November 13, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
411 AM PST Wed Nov 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...The strongest cold front within an active, wet and
windy pattern will move across the area today, and include a
chance of coastal thunderstorms (mainly late in the day). Winds
will be strongest at the coast, over the higher terrain, in the
Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades with southerly gusts of 45
to 60 mph expected. Meantime, snow levels generally around 4500
to 5000 feet will be near 3500 feet in southern Siskiyou County
(from Mt. Shasta City southward) during the heaviest
precipitation late in the day. The strong southerly upslope flow
pattern into the Mt. Shasta area will bring the lower snow levels.

A cool and showery pattern will follow tonight, through Thursday,
into Friday. Precipitation during that period will mainly be
light, but with widespread coverage. A break is likely Friday
night into Saturday. Before the end of Saturday, the next frontal
system is expected to reach the coast, and continue across the
area Saturday night through Sunday into Monday. Another break
between systems is likely around Tuesday into Wednesday. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...13/12Z TAFS...A strong cold front offshore will move
onshore later this morning. Expect southerly storm winds over
the coastal waters with gusts to 55 kt. Some gusts of 35-50 kt are
expected along the immediate coast as well, highest over the
headlands. SSE Winds are also surfacing in portions of the Umpqua
Basin with gusts of 25 to 35 kt even in/around Roseburg this
morning. Strong winds aloft with lighter winds right near the ground
will maintain a low-level wind shear threat at Medford at least
through 16Z, then expect SE winds to surface briefly prior to the
front moving in around midday. This should end the LLWS risk, but
ceilings will lower and steadier precip will commence. Winds pick up
this morning at Klamath Falls. We expect wind gusts near 35kt from
15-22Z, so there is an airport weather warning out for that.

Overall, ceilings and visibility will vary between VFR/MVFR with
areas of higher terrain obscured, especially as the front moves
inland later this morning into this afternoon. Snow levels will drop
to near 3500 feet in the Mt. Shasta region, so snow could bring
IFR/LIFR at times there and also in the Cascades/Siskiyous above
4500 feet.

Precipitation becomes more showery behind the front, and there is
enough instability for thunderstorms from the coastal waters to
areas just inland from the coast. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Wednesday, November 13, 2024...

A strong front is moving through the coastal waters this morning.
Storm force south winds are expected through 10 am PST with
dangerous seas peaking at 20 to 25 feet north of Cape Blanco and 15
to 22 feet south of Cape Blanco. Winds will subside a bit as the
front moves onshore late this morning, but very steep, hazardous
seas will persist. Thunderstorms are also possible. Seas remain
elevated through Thursday with slight improvement starting Friday
morning. -Spilde

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 245 AM PST Wednesday, November 13, 2024...

With the strong front moving through, surf heights will peak at 23
to 28 feet this morning. Seas gradually decrease this afternoon and
evening. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-022.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ026-030-031.

     High Surf Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ080-
     082-083.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     CAZ082.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&