A strong trough associated with the axis of an upper level low brought another episode of high winds to the southern Oregon coast.
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The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A strong trough associated with the axis of an upper level low brought another episode of high winds to the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 9:59 AM PST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1059 AM PDT Mon Mar 11 2024
Updated AVIATION Section
.DISCUSSION...No changes are needed for the forecast this morning.
Precipitation ahead of a warm front looks to reach the Oregon
coast later this morning. Rainfall is generally expected west of
the Cascades, although localized areas of brief snowfall are not
impossible. This occurred at both Camas Mountain and Galice
yesterday and could happen in spots again today. More snowfall
will fall over western Siskiyou County and along the Cascades,
with notable amounts of snowfall possibly getting past the
mountains and reaching Chemult and Crescent. Strong, gusty winds
will also move over higher terrain through tonight.
Please see current hazard products and previous discussions for
additional details. -TAD
&&
.AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...A strong front is approaching the
coast currently and will move inland late this afternoon and
evening. Winds are increasing ahead of the front. Very strong winds
exist just above the surface, so there is a risk of low-level wind
shear along the coast through this afternoon. This risk also exists
in the Illinois/Umpqua valleys througn early this evening, and for
some areas east of the Cascades late this afternoon/evening.
Precipitation with the front will spread inland from the coast to
the Cascades through this afternoon, and for areas east of the
Cascades beginning late this afternoon/evening. This will result in
widespread MVFR conditions along the coast and areas of MVFR
conditions inland along with mountain obscurations. MVFR conditions
may increase for inland areas late this evening and tonight as
fairly widespread showers linger behind the front. Snow levels will
generally be in the 3,500-4,500 foot range, and while we are
expecting precipitation in Klamath Falls to be mostly rain, a wintry
mix of snow and rain is possible, especially during the evening and
overnight period. Little accumulation is expected, however.
Showers with areas of MVFR ceilings will persist Tuesday, but will
showers gradually diminish in coverage by Tuesday evening. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Monday, March 11, 2024...High and steep
west seas and gusty south winds will persist through late this
morning. A strong front will move across the waters this afternoon
and evening, bringing a mix of strong gales to storm force winds and
very steep, hazardous seas. Winds are expected to peak this
afternoon through early evening with storm force winds, expected
north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm of shore. Winds will diminish,
but very steep seas will linger tonight. Seas will lower some and
become dominated by steep, westerly swell late tonight through
Wednesday.
High pressure builds in by Wednesday then remains in place through
late this week. North winds develop on Wednesday into Thursday and
areas of steep seas and gusty winds are expected for areas south of
Cape Blanco. These winds weaken on Friday and seas are expected to
trend lower. -CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM PDT Mon Mar 11 2024/
DISCUSSION...
The final cold front in this period of active weather will hit the
region later this evening. The biggest concern with this final
frontal passage is going to be wind. Some of the deterministic
models and even the high resolution ensemble forecast system are
predicting some strong winds 45kts with gusts to 60 knots in the
waters right next to the coast later this afternoon and early
evening. The current concern is if these winds can produce higher
wind gusts on the coast and the coastal headlands. The chance
isn't zero and probably around 25 percent or so. The front appears
to lose some strength as it moves inland and perhaps some of the
dynamics weaken. We don't issue wind advisories at the coast,
although this would be a good case to issue one as wind gusts
will be strong, but we don't have enough confidence for the high
wind warning winds. We should see wind impacts such as scattered
power outages in the afternoon hours as these winds hit the coast
and some of the higher terrain in Josephine and Douglas Counties.
Aside from wind, we'll see yet another period of snowfall
starting later this morning and continuing into Tuesday. Snow
levels will start out lower around 3000 feet before rising up to
4000 feet as some warmer air pushes in ahead of the next cold
front. Snowfall will be heaviest in the Cascades given the
westerly flow and we're forecasting up to a foot over the
ridgetops and mountains. This is a high end advisory event given
the snowfall rates around 1" an hour for about 12 hours. In
addition, the snow will continue to accumulate into Tuesday
morning, although it will be at a much lower rate as we transition
to showery precipitation mode. Overall, winter weather impacts
should be minor here as impacted locations are at fairly high
elevations and snowfall totals are generally under 1 foot.
Some showers could still linger into Tuesday afternoon and evening
with the PoP forecast around 50 percent in Douglas County and
northern Lake and Klamath Counties as the 500 mb trough remains
over head. Eventually, the low will slide to the east and high
pressure will begin to build in it's wake by Wednesday morning.
This high pressure may bring a welcome break for many as
temperatures will begin to feel more Spring like.
A thermal trough will setup along the Oregon coast with some light
east to north east flow developing by Thursday. Temperatures will
begin to trend warmer on Thursday. By Friday, Saturday and
Sunday, we're forecasting high temperatures in the 70's for many
locations west of the Cascades with 60's along the coast and even
east of the Cascades. These temperatures are about 10 degrees
warmer than normal and we're not anticipating any records to fall
this weekend.
-Smith
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023-024-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Tuesday for ORZ027-028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PDT
Tuesday for ORZ030.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PDT
Tuesday above 5000 feet for CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this
morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT
Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Port Orford recorded peak south winds of 44 mph with gusts to 57 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1168256.