A series of slow moving frontal systems brought several days of heavy rain, which caused flooding on the South Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A series of slow moving frontal systems brought several days of heavy rain, which caused flooding on the South Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 13, 9:07 PM PST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
907 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024
.SHORT TERM...Heavy precipitation fell today with heavy snow
across the mountains and east side and heavy rain west of the
Cascades. This has allowed rivers and streams to rise and has
resulted in minor flooding (please see the hydrology discussion
below).
A surface low is moving inland this evening. Although not
as heavy as earlier today, precipitation will continue this
evening into tonight. Very cold arctic air has edged into
northern portions of the area including northern Klamath from
Chemult north and far northwest Lake County where temperatures are
in the -5 to 20 degree range. Gusty winds are also occuring over
the mountains and into portions of the east side (with highest
winds over the mountains in far eastern Klamath, Lake and eastern
Modoc Counties). Very cold air along with breezy winds will result
in wind chills of 0 to -15 deg F this evening and tonight in
northern Klamath and far northwest Lake counties. This will bring
an elevated risk of frostbite or hypothermia to these areas.
Meanwhile, west of the Cascades, cold air has also settled into
far northwest Douglas County with temperatures in the lower to mid
30s north of Drain and colder temperatures in the 20s and low 30s
into areas north across Lane County.
Light to moderate precipitation will continue tonight and expect
a mix of rain and snow over the area tonight. Snow levels will
vary across the area with much of the area seeing snow levels
around 4000 to 5500 feet but locally lower in the Mount Shasta
area this evening into tonight and locally lower across far
northwest Douglas County Sunday morning as showers decrease. Of
note, models support low level cold air potentially moving
slightly further south into northwest Douglas County and the
National Blend of Models indicates a chance (20-50%) for freezing
rain in far northwest Douglas County. So we have extended the
winter weather advisory for this area through 4 am tonight.
Moderate to heavy snow impacts will continue to impact the higher
mountains, mainly from the Cascades east into tonight. Otherwise,
expect rain for most valleys/foothills west of the Cascades. The
exception will be in the Mount Shasta City area, where moderate to
heavy snow is expected through late this evening then decreasing
in intensity tonight. Please see the WSWMFR for details.
On Sunday, models support light showers in the morning with
activity focused over the mountains. Shower activity will diminish
in the late morning and early afternoon. Then, expect cold
temperatures Sunday night with lows in the teens to single digits
east of the Cascades and in the upper 20s to mid 30s for valleys
west of the Cascades. Along the coast, cold temperatures in the
mid to lower 30s are also possible along the Coos and Douglas
coasts.
&&
.AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs...Low pressure is moving onshore this
evening. While widespread heavy precipitation from earlier today
has mostly diminished, some rain, ice and snow will continue tonight
as the low moves onshore. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings to
persist, but may break to VFR at times this evening. Mountains will
remain obscured. Gusty winds aloft are surfacing in most areas
east of the Cascades, so low-level wind shear is not as much of a
risk, but turbulence will likely be encountered on approaches and
departures. Overall, precipitation will taper off overnight into
Sunday morning, but MVFR/IFR conditions are likely to continue at
most terminals. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon, but
MVFR may still prevail. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 900 PM Saturday January 12, 2024...A strong low
pressure system will continue to move onshore late this evening,
with winds shifting to northerly and easing to around 10 to 20 kt
behind it. However, a high and very steep fresh swell will move into
the region behind the low, keeping seas very hazardous into Sunday
morning. Latest model guidance is showing seas peaking at 12 to 19
ft at 11 or 12 seconds, highest over the outer waters beyond 10 nm
from shore, but still very steep over the inner waters as well. We
have extended the hazardous seas warning through 10 am, then seas
should eventually subside below 10 ft Sunday afternoon. Improving
conditions are expected into Monday, then the next front will
approach on Tuesday resulting in another round of increasing south
winds and steep seas.
-Spilde/CSP
.HYDROLOGY...Large amounts of rainfall have lead to excessive
runoff and flooding concerns for many areas west of the Cascades
this afternoon. Heavy precipitation has ended as low pressure
moves to our east, and urban and small creek flooding concerns
have ended for Jackson, Josephine, and Douglas counties, though
there may be some lingering ponding water tonight, especially in
more urban areas. The Flood Warning for Curry County will continue
through later tonight as area rivers are still running high,
which is coinciding with a period of high tides that could lead to
coastal flooding, especially along the Chetco River. This river
is forecast decrease through the night into Sunday. Several other
rivers additionally have Flood Warnings out. The Deer Creek at
Roseburg is forecast to reach minor flood stage tonight before
decreasing overnight. The Coquille River at Coquille, meanwhile,
has already reached minor flood stage and is forecast to continue
to rise to moderate flood stage (around 24 feet) by Sunday
afternoon before slowly decreasing into early next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 449 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024/
DISCUSSION...Arctic air is resting just to the north of the forecast
area, causing some noteworthy temperature differences. The current
temperature at Roseburg is 51 degrees, while Eugene is at 26
degrees. Chemult is in the low 30s while Crescent (20 miles to the
north) is in single digits. Warm air from an approaching cutoff low
mixing with this arctic air in places has made observing snow levels
difficult today, to say the least.
Widespread precipitation will continue over northern California
and southern Oregon this evening as that cutoff low makes
landfall. West of the Cascades, rainfall is most likely. Reports
of small stream flooding in Roseburg and in Eagle Point support
Flood Advisories focused on those urban areas through the early
evening.
Rain and snow showers are continuing to move over areas east of the
Cascades. Snow levels have fluctuated through the day, with 3500 to
4500 feet being a good approximation. Strong winds over the Cascades
and farther east are expected to persist through the evening as
well, with the broadest areas of elevated winds across the southern
half of Lake County. A Winter Storm Warning is in place for areas
along and east of the Cascades to communicate the hazardous
combination of winds and winter precipitation.
An upper ridge building behind the current activity will bring
generally calmer conditions through Sunday. Scattered showers will
continue into Sunday morning but coverage will quickly decrease.
Diminishing (60%, falling to 30%) precipitation chances will remain
over the Oregon coast south of Cape Blanco, over the Cascades, and
over parts of Modoc County through Sunday afternoon. Temperatures in
the teens for east side areas and near or at freezing for inland
valleys may refreeze snowfall or accumulated water. Extra caution on
nonporous surfaces may be needed.
Monday looks to remain calm under the upper ridge, with active
weather expected to return by Tuesday afternoon. An upper trough
approaching from the southwest will bring another round of
precipitation. This midweek system won't have the same wintry
impacts as the one that affected the area today. The Oregon coast
south of Cape Blanco and western Siskiyou County are currently
forecast to get 1 to 2 inches of rain, while other west side areas
will get lower amounts. Snow accumulation looks to be limited to
the Cascades and higher terrain east of the Cascades, .
A weak ridge could help keep Thursday dry again. Current long-
term model guidance shows possible abundant activity on Friday
evening that could continue through next week. Both the ECMWF and
GFS graphical models show a low pressure system setting up south
of Alaska bringing multiple fronts to the area. Ensemble guidance
from both models suggests frequent precipitation through next
week for west side areas, with the highest amounts falling over
the Oregon coast. While forecasting for over a week out will not
come with an abundance of confidence in any specific outcome,
there is good agreement between these long-term models that active
weather will be continuing. -TAD
AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs...Low pressure is moving onshore this
evening. While widespread heavy precipitation from earlier today
has mostly diminished, some rain, ice and snow will continue tonight
as the low moves onshore. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings to
persist, but may break to VFR at times this evening. Mountains will
remain obscured. Gusty winds aloft are surfacing in most areas
east of the Cascades, so low-level wind shear is not as much of a
risk, but turbulence will likely be encountered on approaches and
departures. Overall, precipitation will taper off overnight into
Sunday morning, but MVFR/IFR conditions are likely to continue at
most terminals. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon, but
MVFR may still prevail. -Spilde
MARINE...Updated 215 PM Saturday January 12, 2024...A strong low
pressure system remains offshore this afternoon. Southwest winds are
gusty across all waters currently with the potential for gale force
gusts through about 7 pm. The low will move onshore late this
evening resulting in a wind shift to northerly. Winds will ease to
around 10 to 20 kt. However, a high and very steep fresh swell will
accompany the low as it moves onshore and behind it, keeping seas
very hazardous into Sunday morning. Latest model guidance is showing
seas peaking at 12 to 18 ft at 11 or 12 seconds, highest over the
outer waters beyond 10 nm from shore, but still very steep over the
inner waters as well. We have extended the hazardous seas warning
through 10 am, then seas should eventually subside below 10 ft
Sunday afternoon. Improving conditions are expected into Monday,
then the next front will approach on Tuesday resulting in another
round of increasing south winds and steep seas. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday above 4500 feet for
ORZ027>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-
023.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening above 4500
feet for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ082.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ083-
084.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday above 4500 feet for
CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this
evening for PZZ350.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
&&
CC/CC/CCPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
607 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM Rain 2 WSW Obrien 42.06N 123.73W
01/13/2024 M4.90 inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
24 hours total from 3PM the 12th to 3PM the
13th.
&&
CSPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
608 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0607 PM Rain 1 NNW Central Point 42.39N 122.92W
01/13/2024 M1.69 inch Jackson OR Trained Spotter
&&
CSPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
609 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0608 PM Rain 2 ENE Murphy 42.36N 123.29W
01/13/2024 E1.25 inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
&&
CSPPreliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Medford OR
611 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM Rain 2 ENE Murphy 42.36N 123.29W
01/13/2024 M1.25 inch Josephine OR Trained Spotter
&&
CSPThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The South Fork of the Coquille River at Myrtle Point rose above minor flood stage of 33.0 ft at 13/2320 PST, and above moderate flood stage of 35.0 ft at 14/0500 PST, crested at moderate flood stage at 35.22 ft at 14/0750 PST. The river dropped below minor flood stage at 14/2040 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154219.